本文選題：強(qiáng)地震動 + 模擬�。� 參考：《中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：合理預(yù)測未來可能發(fā)生的地震中工程場地的地震動是地震危險性分析的關(guān)鍵,近年來提出的兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法得到了廣泛應(yīng)用并成功模擬了一些地震的地震動,但是該方法仍然存在一些亟待解決的問題。本文基于兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法開展地震動模擬的相關(guān)研究,重點(diǎn)解決該方法目前存在的一些問題,包括:地震應(yīng)力降的表示、模擬地震動不確定性的定量分析、震源破裂方向性的模擬、缺乏經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)的處理,本文旨在為兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法在地震危險性分析中的應(yīng)用打下基礎(chǔ)。本文主要工作如下:(1)給出了用于地震動模擬的應(yīng)力降估計(jì)模型并檢驗(yàn)了模擬結(jié)果的有效性�；诘卣饝�(yīng)力降的研究結(jié)果,將地震應(yīng)力降表示為服從對數(shù)正態(tài)分布的數(shù)據(jù)集,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差(log10)確定為0.2-0.6,平均應(yīng)力降根據(jù)地震平均滑動位錯與破裂面縱橫比的關(guān)系近似估計(jì)�；趦刹诫S機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法模擬了2013年Mw6.6級蘆山地震、2008年Mw6.9級巖手宮城內(nèi)陸地震和2016年Mw7.1級熊本地震的地震動,震源模型只考慮高應(yīng)力降的凹凸體區(qū)域。模擬結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),短周期(2.0s)模擬地震動與觀測記錄較為一致或相差不大,長周期(2.0s)模擬地震動則明顯偏低,這可能與經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)缺乏長周期信號有關(guān),凹凸體之外的低應(yīng)力降破裂區(qū)域?qū)δM地震動的貢獻(xiàn)很小。(2)定量給出了兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法模擬地震動的不確定性。首先采用不同應(yīng)力降比值(0.5-8.0,固定間隔1.5)分別模擬蘆山、熊本和巖手宮城內(nèi)陸地震的地震動,發(fā)現(xiàn)模擬地震動隨應(yīng)力降比值的增大而增大,模擬地震動的殘差與應(yīng)力降比值的自然對數(shù)有明顯的線性負(fù)相關(guān),據(jù)此建立了模擬地震動與應(yīng)力降比值的定量關(guān)系。其次,采用蒙特卡羅隨機(jī)抽樣方法隨機(jī)給出服從對數(shù)正態(tài)分布的目標(biāo)地震應(yīng)力降,其中應(yīng)力降標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差(log10)分別為0.2-0.6,分別模擬上述三次地震的地震動,建立了模擬地震動標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差與應(yīng)力降標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的定量關(guān)系,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)應(yīng)力降標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差越大則模擬記錄的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差相對越小,長周期模擬地震動的不確定性更小;當(dāng)應(yīng)力降標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為0.2-0.6時,模擬記錄的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差約為0.11-0.37。最后,討論了隨機(jī)破裂過程引起的模擬地震動的不確定性,根據(jù)K-S檢驗(yàn)證實(shí)多次隨機(jī)過程模擬地震動服從對數(shù)正態(tài)分布,200次隨機(jī)過程模擬地震動的對數(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差約為0.05-0.15,且隨周期(0.05-2.0s)增大而增大。(3)提出了利用兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法模擬震源破裂方向性的技術(shù)思路。首先,選取兩次震源破裂方向性顯著的蘆山地震余震(EQII和EQIII)作為經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)模擬主震地震動,模擬結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)模擬地震動表現(xiàn)出顯著的方向性效應(yīng),且與小震方向性特性一致,說明經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)的選取有必要考慮小震震源破裂方向性的影響。其次,提出以視拐角頻率替代拐角頻率改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有的兩步隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法,基于改進(jìn)方法采用EQIII的記錄再次模擬蘆山地震,結(jié)果顯示模擬地震動并未表現(xiàn)出明顯的方向性效應(yīng),且與實(shí)際觀測記錄較為一致,證實(shí)改進(jìn)方法有效地表示(消除)了小震震源破裂方向性的影響。最后,基于改進(jìn)方法模擬了一系列震源破裂方向性特征不同的地震,模擬地震動表現(xiàn)出相應(yīng)的破裂方向性效應(yīng),主破裂前方的模擬地震動普遍高于主破裂后方,驗(yàn)證了改進(jìn)方法實(shí)現(xiàn)地震動方向性效應(yīng)模擬的可行性。(4)探索性地提出了廣義經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)的概念,并將其應(yīng)用于唐山地震的地震動模擬。為彌補(bǔ)小震記錄缺乏對經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)方法的限制,提出了不考慮大小地震震源位置差異的廣義經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)的概念。分析日本強(qiáng)震動記錄與中國地震動衰減關(guān)系的事件內(nèi)殘差,結(jié)果表明中國東部強(qiáng)震區(qū)和青藏地震區(qū)與日本地區(qū)傳播路徑差異對震中距150km的地震動PGA的影響可近似忽略,對PSA有很小的影響,說明日本地區(qū)的強(qiáng)震動記錄可近似作為中國地區(qū)目標(biāo)地震的廣義經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)。選取K-NET臺站及KiK-net井下基巖臺站記錄分別模擬蘆山地震具體臺站的地震動及地震動場,結(jié)果表明,觀測記錄大體上位于模擬地震動平均值加減一倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差范圍內(nèi),初步檢驗(yàn)了廣義經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù)的可靠性。最后,選取KiK-net井下基巖臺站的記錄作為模擬1976年Ms7.8級唐山地震基巖面地震動的廣義經(jīng)驗(yàn)格林函數(shù),模擬地震動(3.0s)與地震動預(yù)測方程預(yù)測值較為一致,且模擬地震動PGA等值線與宏觀烈度較為一致。
[Abstract]:The reasonable prediction of the ground motion of the engineering site in the future may be the key to the seismic hazard analysis. In recent years, the two step random empirical Green function method has been widely used and successfully simulated some earthquake ground motions, but there are still some problems to be solved in this method. This paper is based on two steps of random random. The empirical Green function method is used to carry out the related research on seismic simulation, focusing on some problems existing in this method, including the representation of the seismic stress drop, the quantitative analysis of the earthquake dynamic uncertainty, the simulation of the rupture direction of the earthquake source, the lack of the experience of the empirical Green function, and the two step random empirical Green function square. The main work of this paper is as follows. The main work of this paper is as follows: (1) the stress drop estimation model for ground motion simulation is given and the validity of the simulation results is tested. Based on the results of the seismic stress drop, the seismic stress drop is expressed as a data set obeying the lognormal distribution, and the standard deviation (log10) is determined to be 0. 2-0.6, the average stress drop is approximately estimated according to the relationship between the average slip dislocation of the earthquake and the longitudinal and transverse ratio of the fracture surface. Based on the two step random empirical Green function method, the 2013 Mw6.6 Lushan earthquake, the Iwate Miyagi inland earthquake in 2008 and the 2016 Mw7.1 Xiongben earthquake in 2016 are simulated. The source model only considers the concave and convex of the high stress drop. The simulation results show that the short period (2.0S) simulated ground motion is consistent with the observation record, and the long period (2.0S) simulated ground motion is obviously lower. This may be related to the lack of the long period signal of the empirical Green function. The contribution of the low stress drop zone outside the concave convex body to the simulated ground motion is small. (2) the quantitative analysis is given. The two step random empirical Green function method is used to simulate the uncertainty of ground motion. First, different stress drop ratios (0.5-8.0, fixed interval 1.5) are used to simulate the ground motions of the inland earthquakes in Lushan, Xiongben and Iwate, respectively. It is found that the simulated ground motion increases with the increase of the ratio of stress drop, and the ratio of the residual and the stress drop of simulated ground motion from the simulated ground motion. There is a clear linear negative correlation, and the quantitative relationship between simulated ground motion and the ratio of stress drop is established. Secondly, the seismic stress drop of the target is randomly given by the Monte Carlo random sampling method, and the standard difference of stress drop (log10) is 0.2-0.6, respectively, to simulate the ground motion of the above three earthquakes respectively. The quantitative relationship between the standard deviation of ground motion standard deviation and the standard deviation of stress drop is established. The results show that the higher the standard deviation of the stress drop is, the smaller the standard deviation of the simulated record is, the uncertainty of the long period simulated ground motion is smaller. When the standard deviation of the stress drop is 0.2-0.6, the standard deviation of the simulated record is about 0.11-0.37. last, and the random rupture process is discussed. The uncertainty caused by the simulated ground motion is confirmed by K-S test. The simulated ground motion of multiple random processes obeys the lognormal distribution. The logarithmic standard deviation of the simulated ground motion in the 200 random process is about 0.05-0.15 and increases with the increase of the period (0.05-2.0s). (3) a two step random empirical Green function method is proposed to simulate the rupture of the source. First, we select two aftershocks of Lushan earthquake (EQII and EQIII) to simulate the main earthquake ground motion as the empirical Green function. The simulation results show that the simulated ground motion shows significant directional effect and is in accordance with the specificity of the small earthquake direction, which indicates that the selection of the empirical Green function is necessary. Considering the influence of the rupture direction of the small earthquake source, the two step random empirical Green function method is proposed, which is based on the angular frequency instead of the corner frequency. Based on the improved method, the Lushan earthquake is simulated again by the EQIII record. The results show that the simulated ground motion does not show obvious directional effect and is compared with the actual observation record. In order to agree, it is proved that the improved method effectively expresses (eliminate) the influence of the rupture direction of the small earthquake source. Finally, based on the improved method, a series of earthquakes with different directional characteristics of the source rupture are simulated. The simulated ground motion shows the corresponding rupture direction effect. The simulated ground motion ahead of the main rupture is generally higher than the rear of the main rupture. The feasibility of improving the seismic directional effect is simulated by the improved method. (4) the concept of generalized empirical Green function is proposed and applied to the earthquake simulation in Tangshan earthquake. In order to make up for the lack of the empirical Green function method, the generalized experience of the difference of the magnitude of the magnitude earthquake source is put forward. The concept of Green's function is used to analyze the incident internal residual difference between the Japanese strong vibration record and the attenuation of ground motion in China. The results show that the difference of the propagation path between the strong earthquake zone in eastern China and the Tibetan earthquake area and the region of Japan is negligible for the earthquake PGA of the epicentral distance 150km, and it has a small influence on the PSA, indicating the strong vibration in Japan. It is approximated as the generalized empirical Green function of the target earthquake in China. The K-NET station and KiK-net underground rock station records are selected to simulate the ground motion and seismic dynamic field of the Lushan seismic station. The results show that the observation records are generally located within the range of the average value of the simulated ground motion. The reliability of the Green function of the sense experience. Finally, the record of the KiK-net underground rock station is selected as the generalized empirical Green function to simulate the ground motion of the base rock surface of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan earthquake. The simulated ground motion (3.0s) is in agreement with the prediction of the ground motion prediction equation, and the simulated ground motion PGA equivalent line is more consistent with the macroscopic intensity.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P315

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