本文選題：滑坡 + 孕災(zāi)環(huán)境�。� 參考：《蘭州理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：蘭州地區(qū)作為西北重要的工業(yè)與商貿(mào)中心城市,由于其地質(zhì)環(huán)境復(fù)雜、人類工程活動(dòng)明顯,導(dǎo)致近年來(lái)該地區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,嚴(yán)重威脅當(dāng)?shù)厝藗兊纳拓?cái)產(chǎn)安全。針對(duì)這一情況,本文選取蘭州地區(qū)及周邊作為研究對(duì)象,基于ArcGIS平臺(tái),利用蘭州地區(qū)1:5萬(wàn)DEM數(shù)據(jù)與遙感影像提取坡度、坡向等致災(zāi)因子,結(jié)合致災(zāi)因子圖層與歷史災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害空間分布特征分析;綜合利用敏感性指數(shù)(SI)、確定性系數(shù)(CF)和相關(guān)系數(shù)方法進(jìn)行致災(zāi)因子在區(qū)內(nèi)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害研究中的適宜性分析;形成一套普遍適用的因子建立體系;根據(jù)篩選出的致災(zāi)因子,結(jié)合研究區(qū)的地質(zhì)、地貌數(shù)據(jù),利用概率指數(shù)模型(PI)、信息量模型(IM)和邏輯回歸模型(LR)對(duì)蘭州及周邊地區(qū)的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害進(jìn)行了危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)研究并進(jìn)行了精度分析;通過(guò)蘭州地區(qū)2000年、2008年、2013年遙感影像利用ENVI平臺(tái)分析了十三年來(lái)蘭州地區(qū)植被覆蓋度變化,最終得出結(jié)論:(1)對(duì)蘭州地區(qū)進(jìn)行的災(zāi)害空間分布特征分析表明,在研究區(qū),地質(zhì)災(zāi)害通常易發(fā)生在坡度25°~40°、高程1700m~2600m、15m~45m地形起伏度、切割深度5m~30m的東南、南、西南凸形陽(yáng)坡;(2)本研究通過(guò)致災(zāi)因子在研究區(qū)的適應(yīng)性篩選,建立了一套對(duì)研究區(qū)普遍適用的因子建立體系,并根據(jù)此因子建立體系,篩選出坡度、坡向、高程、坡度變率、地形起伏度和地表切割度作為研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的最終致災(zāi)因子;(3)利用三種災(zāi)害評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行的災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)與精度分析發(fā)現(xiàn),三種模型下地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的敏感性強(qiáng)弱分布趨勢(shì)基本一致,其中,信息量模型所對(duì)應(yīng)的ROC曲線下面積較大,邏輯回歸(Logistic)模型次之,概率指數(shù)模型略低。模型精度評(píng)價(jià)表明,信息量模型精度略高于Logistic回歸模型,概率指數(shù)模型評(píng)價(jià)精度最低,即對(duì)研究區(qū)而言,采用信息量模型進(jìn)行災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果最為準(zhǔn)確。(4)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果表明,研究區(qū)內(nèi),位于地質(zhì)災(zāi)害極高易發(fā)區(qū)的縣(區(qū))為:城關(guān)區(qū)、西固區(qū)、永登縣;位于高易發(fā)區(qū)的縣(區(qū))有:七里河區(qū)、安寧區(qū);位于易發(fā)區(qū)的縣(區(qū))為皋蘭縣;相對(duì)較穩(wěn)定(不易發(fā)區(qū))的縣(區(qū))為榆中縣。(5)分析蘭州13年間植被覆蓋度變化情況發(fā)現(xiàn),蘭州市南北兩山植被總體呈增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),其中的劣等植被覆蓋面積變化最大;2013年蘭州南北兩山植被已經(jīng)進(jìn)入很好的生長(zhǎng)期,兩山綠化和生態(tài)恢復(fù)產(chǎn)生了成效。由于人們的綠化意識(shí)不斷提高,政府的大力投資和對(duì)南北兩山進(jìn)行的生態(tài)保護(hù)、恢復(fù)等工作,對(duì)兩山的綠化、植被恢復(fù)方面起了重要作用。
[Abstract]:Lanzhou is an important industrial and trade center city in the northwest of China. Because of its complex geological environment and obvious human engineering activities, geological disasters occur frequently in this area in recent years, which seriously threaten the safety of local people's lives and property.In view of this situation, this paper selects Lanzhou area and its periphery as the research object, based on the ArcGIS platform, uses the Lanzhou area 1: 50,000 DEM data and the remote sensing image to extract the slope, the slope direction and so on disaster causing factors, etc.The spatial distribution characteristics of geological hazards in the study area are analyzed based on the disaster-causing factor layer and historical disaster data.The suitability of disaster factors in the study of geological hazards in the region is analyzed by using the sensitivity index (SI), the deterministic coefficient (CFC) and the correlation coefficient method, and a set of universally applicable factors is established.Based on the geological and geomorphological data of the study area, the risk assessment and accuracy analysis of geological hazards in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas are carried out by using probabilistic exponential model (Pi), information quantity model (IMM) and logical regression model (LR).Based on the remote sensing images of Lanzhou in 2000, 2008 and 2013, the changes of vegetation coverage in Lanzhou during the past 13 years were analyzed by using ENVI platform. Finally, a conclusion was drawn that the spatial distribution of disasters in Lanzhou area was analyzed by the analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of disasters in Lanzhou area.Geological hazards usually occur at 25 擄~ 40 擄slope, 1 700 m ~ 2 600 m ~ 2 600 m ~ (15) m ~ (45 m) topographic undulation, cut depth of 5m~30m in southeast, south and southwest convex sunny slope.) in this study, the adaptive selection of disaster factors in the study area is carried out.In this paper, a system of establishing factors which is generally applicable to the study area is established, and according to this system, the slope, direction, elevation, gradient change rate are screened out.Topographic fluctuation and surface cutting are the ultimate hazard factors for the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability in the study area. The results of the assessment and accuracy analysis of the three kinds of disaster assessment models are as follows.The distribution trend of the sensitivity of geological hazards under the three models is basically the same. Among them, the area under the ROC curve corresponding to the information content model is larger, the logical regression logistic model is the second, and the probability index model is slightly lower.The accuracy evaluation of the model shows that the accuracy of the information quantity model is slightly higher than that of the Logistic regression model, and the probabilistic exponential model has the lowest accuracy, that is, for the study area,The results of disaster vulnerability evaluation based on information quantity model show that the counties (districts) located in extremely high geological hazard prone areas are Chengguan District, Xigu District and Yongdeng County. The results show that the evaluation results of disaster vulnerability are as follows: (1) in the study area, the counties (districts) are: Chengguan District, Xigu District, Yongdeng County;The counties (districts) located in the high susceptible areas are: Qili River District, Anning District; Gaolan County, which is located in the susceptible area; and Yuzhong County, Yizhong County, which is relatively stable (not susceptible area).The vegetation of the north and south mountains of Lanzhou showed an increasing trend in general, in which the inferior vegetation cover area changed the most; in 2013, the vegetation of the north and south mountains of Lanzhou had entered a very good growing period, and the greening and ecological restoration of the two mountains had produced results.Because people's consciousness of greening has been improved, the government's great investment, ecological protection and restoration of the north and south mountains have played an important role in the greening of the two mountains and the restoration of vegetation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P642.22

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本文編號(hào)：1770832