本文選題：震區(qū) + 泥石流��； 參考：《成都理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：研究區(qū)位于“5·12”地震重災(zāi)區(qū),震后急速增長的物源和震區(qū)陡峭的有利地形條件使得汶川地區(qū)新增1000余條溝谷泥石流。震后震區(qū)經(jīng)歷的6個雨季中,每年都暴發(fā)了大規(guī)模的泥石流災(zāi)害,以2010年龍池和映秀的“8·13”泥石流和2013年汶川的“7·10”泥石流尤為嚴重。2010年8月13日,汶川映秀-威州、龍池、清平三地共有85條溝谷暴發(fā)泥石流,沖出規(guī)模達1501×104m3,單溝以文家溝450×104 m3沖出規(guī)模最大;2013年“7·10”降雨激發(fā)岷江兩岸100多條溝谷暴發(fā)泥石流,沖出規(guī)模為1000×104 m3,單溝以七盤溝沖出規(guī)模(約80×104 m3)最大,危害最為嚴重。沖出規(guī)模增大是震后震區(qū)泥石流的主要運動特征,這些大規(guī)模的泥石流淹沒房屋,工廠,摧毀道路,堵斷河流,破壞著災(zāi)區(qū)的重建成果,嚴重影響著下游地區(qū)人民的生命財產(chǎn)安全。由此看來,受到地震的影響,震區(qū)泥石流發(fā)生的頻率與規(guī)模,勢必將有愈來愈嚴重的趨勢。因此針對震區(qū)泥石流的沖出規(guī)模進行研究,構(gòu)建科學(xué)合理的泥石流沖出規(guī)模評估模型,對災(zāi)區(qū)土地規(guī)劃、災(zāi)情評價、災(zāi)害的預(yù)警、防治以及工程效益評價十分重要的參考價值。本文主要從建立預(yù)測模型和數(shù)值分析兩個方面開展震區(qū)泥石流沖出規(guī)模的研究。本文的研究區(qū)集中分布在汶川岷江沿線映秀-威州段、龍池龍溪河流域和清平綿遠河沿岸,共計27條泥石流溝。其中,汶川震區(qū)7條,龍池地區(qū)11條,清平片區(qū)9條泥石流溝,選定流域面積(A)、相對高差(H)、溝道縱坡降(J)以及流域內(nèi)滑坡面積(AL)等四大影響因素作為沖出規(guī)模(V)的評估指標,探討泥石流沖出規(guī)模的預(yù)測模型。通過應(yīng)用回歸分析泥石流沖出規(guī)模與流域面積(A)、相對高差(H)、溝道縱坡降(J)以及流域內(nèi)滑坡面積(AL)的相關(guān)性可知,各因素與沖出規(guī)模的相關(guān)性為滑坡物源面積流域面積流域相對高差溝道縱比降,且前三項與沖出規(guī)模的相關(guān)系數(shù)均大于0.85,屬高度相關(guān),故選定前三項為沖出規(guī)模的影響因子,并建立數(shù)學(xué)模型V=14.3698A0.2456AL0.2732H0.2798。通過其它地區(qū)泥石流相關(guān)參數(shù)驗證可知該模型具有較好的適用性。期望未來評估泥石流災(zāi)害問題時,該模型能快速量度泥石流沖出規(guī)模,為相關(guān)泥石流的危險性評價提供參考依據(jù)。為了解泥石流發(fā)生的運動形態(tài),預(yù)測成災(zāi)范圍和規(guī)模能夠更加直觀的表達出來,本研究利用O’Brien and Julian于1988年發(fā)表的FLO-2D二維洪災(zāi)模式進行二維泥石流災(zāi)害模擬。配合網(wǎng)格化的數(shù)值地形模型,將加入流變方程式后的洪災(zāi)模式轉(zhuǎn)換為可模擬泥石流流變行為的分析模式。研究區(qū)主要以汶川震區(qū)碼頭溝和羊嶺溝兩個典型泥石流溝作為研究對象,并分別使用2010年“8·13”和2013年“7·10”的降雨量為依據(jù),探討泥石流的最大堆積深度、堆積范圍,進而估算出泥石流的沖出規(guī)模。本文分別模擬兩條泥石流溝在自然條件和發(fā)生潰決兩種情況下的沖出規(guī)模,碼頭溝和羊嶺溝在自然條件下四種降雨頻率(P=1%,P=2%,P=5%,P=10%)的沖出規(guī)模,碼頭溝各頻率下沖出規(guī)模為1%(15.8×104m3)、2%(10.18×104 m3)、5%(7.08×104 m3)、10%(4.42×104 m3);羊嶺溝四種降雨頻率下沖出規(guī)模分別為為1%(12.83×104 m3)、2%(8.59×104 m3)、5%(6.08×104 m3)、10%(4.50×104m3)。結(jié)果表明隨降雨頻率的減小,重現(xiàn)周期的增大,泥石流的沖出規(guī)模不斷增大;且堆積扇面積和堆積深度也隨降雨頻率的增大而減小。碼頭溝暴發(fā)潰決泥石流時,泥石流沖出規(guī)模為23.06×104 m3,與自然條件下相比沖出規(guī)模增大了1.26倍,沖出范圍增大到1.20倍;羊嶺溝暴發(fā)潰決泥石流時,沖出規(guī)模是自然條件下的1.76倍,堆積范圍將增大到1.65倍。本文從數(shù)學(xué)計算模型和FLO-2D數(shù)值模擬兩個方面研究沖出規(guī)模,相對而言,前者能快速計算出泥石流的沖出規(guī)模,FLO-2D數(shù)值模擬則更加直觀的表現(xiàn)出泥石流的沖出范圍、堆積扇的堆積形態(tài)和堆積厚度,但須耗費大量時間。綜合兩種研究方法的特點,在進行泥石流研究時,尤其對區(qū)域分布密集的區(qū)域性泥石流進行危險性評價時,可以先通過預(yù)測模型計算的沖出規(guī)模大小判斷出高危險度的泥石流溝,然后再利用FLO-2D二維數(shù)值模擬軟件對其進行模擬計算,得出泥石流沖出規(guī)模的堆積形態(tài)、堆積范圍、堆積深度等等。
[Abstract]:The study area is located in the "5 - 12" the hardest hit by the earthquake, after the earthquake, the rapid growth of the earthquake source and steep favorable terrain conditions make Wenchuan area more than 1000 new Valley debris flow. 6 earthquake earthquake experience in the rainy season, every year a large outbreak of debris flow disaster in 2010, dragon pool and Yingxiu "8. 13" and "7 debris flow in Wenchuan in 2013 10 the debris flow is particularly serious in August 13th.2010, Wenchuan Yingxiu Qingping Wei Zhou, dragon pool, three a total of 85 debris flow gullies, out of the size of 1501 * 104m3, the single channel in Wenjiagou 450 * 104 m3 out of the largest scale in 2013;" 7. 10 "Minjiang Valley on both sides of the more than 100 rainfall triggered debris flow, out of the size of 1000 * 104 m3, the single channel in seven sets out the scale of ditch (about 80 x 104 m3), the most serious hazards. Out of scale is the main characteristics of post earthquake debris flow movement, these. Die buried houses, factories, destroyed roads, blocked rivers, destroying the disaster reconstruction results, seriously affect the downstream region of the people's lives and property. Therefore, affected by the earthquake, earthquake frequency and scale of debris flow, there will be more and more serious trend. So for the earthquake debris flow out of the scale of construction of scientific and reasonable scale of debris out of the disaster disaster assessment model, land planning, evaluation, disaster warning, prevention and evaluation of project benefit reference value is very important. This article mainly from the establishment of prediction model and numerical analysis of the two aspects to carry out earthquake debris out scale research. The study area of concentration located in Wenchuan Minjiang River along Yingxiu Westphalia, long long Chi River Basin and Qingping Mianyuan River, a total of 27 debris flow gullies. Among them, 7 Wenchuan earthquake, dragon pool Area 11, Qingping area 9 debris flow gullies, selected catchment area (A), the relative elevation (H), channel longitudinal (J) and the basin landslide area (AL) and other four factors influence as out of scale (V) assessment indicators, to explore the prediction model of debris out of scale. Through analysis of debris out scale and watershed area regression (A), the relative elevation (H), channel longitudinal (J) and the basin landslide area (AL) between the various factors and out of scale between the source area of landslide drainage area of gully basin relative elevation gradient, and the correlation coefficient the first three items and out of scale are greater than 0.85, is highly related, the former three are selected out of scale factors, and establish the mathematical model of V=14.3698A0.2456AL0.2732H0.2798. by other areas of debris flow related parameters verification shows that the model has good applicability. Not expected To evaluate the debris flow problem, this model can quickly measure the size of debris out, provide a reference basis for the risk assessment of debris flow. In order to understand the related movement patterns of the occurrence of debris flow disaster prediction scope and scale to be able to be expressed more intuitive, the study adopted O Brien and Julian published in 1988 FLO-2D 2D model of flood disaster the two-dimensional debris flow simulation. Combined with digital terrain model grid, will join the flood mode conversion after the rheological equation analysis model can simulate the rheological behavior of debris flow. The study area mainly in the Wenchuan earthquake and the pier ditch Yang Ling ditch two typical debris flow as the research object, and use "8 - 13" in 2010 and 2013 "7 - 10" rainfall as the basis, the maximum depth of debris flow accumulation, accumulation, and estimate the size of the debris flow out. 鍒嗗埆妯℃嫙涓ゆ潯娉ョ煶嫻佹矡鍦ㄨ嚜鐒舵潯浠跺拰鍙戠敓婧冨喅涓ょ鎯呭喌涓嬬殑鍐插嚭瑙勬ā,鐮佸ご娌熷拰緹婂箔娌熷湪鑷劧鏉′歡涓嬪洓縐嶉檷闆ㄩ鐜，

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