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電力設(shè)施地震經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-15 02:06

  本文選題:變電站 + 輸電線路; 參考:《中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所》2017年碩士論文


【摘要】:電力系統(tǒng)包括發(fā)電系統(tǒng)、輸電系統(tǒng)、配電系統(tǒng),是生命線系統(tǒng)中的重要組成部分,其一旦遭受破壞,將嚴(yán)重影響震后應(yīng)急救援、災(zāi)民生活和災(zāi)后重建。因此,對(duì)電力設(shè)施在地震中遭受的地震破壞和經(jīng)濟(jì)損失進(jìn)行快速評(píng)估具有重要意義。國內(nèi)在相關(guān)方面的研究較少,主要原因是缺乏足夠的震害資料,如有關(guān)發(fā)電廠易損性、快速評(píng)估方面的研究尚處于空白階段,變電站、輸電線路方面的研究主要集中于其功能失效或者其具體組成部件的易損性,尚缺乏系統(tǒng)、完整的震害快速評(píng)估模型。國外在這方面的研究雖然較為成熟,但其評(píng)估模型無法直接應(yīng)用于國內(nèi)的震害評(píng)估中。針對(duì)上述問題,本文提出了基于易損性的電力設(shè)施地震經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估方法,以地震烈度作為主要輸入?yún)?shù),根據(jù)電力系統(tǒng)各部分的造價(jià)、易損性、損失比,結(jié)合全國基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)庫,分別對(duì)其進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)損失評(píng)估,建立電力系統(tǒng)地震經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估模型。本文主要研究內(nèi)容和成果如下:(1)闡述了電力系統(tǒng)基本構(gòu)成,概括介紹了電力設(shè)施在地震中的震害情況,總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外目前電力設(shè)施震害評(píng)估研究現(xiàn)狀、相關(guān)研究成果及發(fā)展趨勢。(2)在綜合了大量統(tǒng)計(jì)資料的基礎(chǔ)上探索了省市級(jí)電網(wǎng)設(shè)施財(cái)產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)匹配到縣區(qū)級(jí)的方法,并由此建立了可供應(yīng)急評(píng)估的以縣區(qū)為單位的全國電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)庫,該數(shù)據(jù)庫包含了全國2856個(gè)區(qū)縣的電網(wǎng)詳細(xì)資產(chǎn)分布、地形地貌類別以及滑坡次生災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)性程度信息,是在無詳實(shí)電網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)情況下進(jìn)行災(zāi)區(qū)電網(wǎng)快速經(jīng)濟(jì)損失評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)。(3)集成、補(bǔ)充了國內(nèi)外電力設(shè)施易損性方面的研究成果,確定了適合國內(nèi)快速評(píng)估的各類電力設(shè)施易損性曲線。其中,補(bǔ)充了變電站室內(nèi)設(shè)備易損性曲線并嘗試給出了GIS變電站易損性曲線;火電廠、水電站由于國內(nèi)研究處于空白且無相關(guān)震害資料,易損性曲線主要引用國外成果;變電站室外高壓電氣設(shè)備、輸電線路的易損性則主要是通過對(duì)汶川地震的震害資料研究得來。(4)根據(jù)電力設(shè)施各部分的造價(jià)、易損性(損失比),將變電站分為室外高壓電氣設(shè)備、室內(nèi)設(shè)備和房屋建筑,建立了單體變電站有詳實(shí)資產(chǎn)、結(jié)構(gòu)類型、設(shè)防條件信息和無詳實(shí)信息下的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估模型;建立了單體輸電線路考慮地震地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估模型;建立了單體火力發(fā)電廠、水力發(fā)電站較為簡易的快速評(píng)估模型。通過對(duì)汶川地震變電站樣本資料的檢驗(yàn),驗(yàn)證了普通變電站總體經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估模型的合理性。(5)結(jié)合建立的電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)庫,利用本文的評(píng)估模型,計(jì)算出了全國縣區(qū)在地震烈度分別為6度、7度、8度、9度、10度下變電站、輸電線路的總體經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,并將結(jié)果用ArcGIS專題圖表達(dá)出來。為電力行業(yè)和政府部門防震減災(zāi)和地震應(yīng)急工作提供參考。
[Abstract]:Power system, including generation system, transmission system and distribution system, is an important part of lifeline system. Once it is damaged, it will seriously affect the emergency relief after earthquake, the life of victims and the reconstruction after disaster.Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the earthquake damage and economic loss of power facilities.The main reason is the lack of sufficient seismic damage data, such as the vulnerability of power plants, the research on rapid assessment is still in the blank stage, substation, substation,The research on transmission line is mainly focused on the failure of its function or the vulnerability of its components. There is still a lack of systematic and complete rapid assessment model of earthquake damage.Although the research in this field abroad is relatively mature, its evaluation model can not be directly applied to the earthquake disaster assessment in China.In order to solve the above problems, this paper puts forward a fast method for evaluating the economic loss of power facilities based on vulnerability. The seismic intensity is taken as the main input parameter, according to the cost, vulnerability, loss ratio of each part of the power system.Combined with the national basic database, the economic loss assessment is carried out, and the rapid evaluation model of seismic economic loss of power system is established.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: (1) the basic structure of power system is expounded, the earthquake damage of power facilities in earthquake is introduced, and the present situation of earthquake damage assessment of power facilities at home and abroad is summarized.On the basis of synthesizing a large number of statistical data, this paper explores the method of matching provincial and municipal power network facility property data to county and district level.Based on this, the basic database of national power grid, which is based on county and district, is established, which includes the detailed distribution of power grid assets, the types of landform and geomorphology, and the dangerous degree of landslide secondary disasters in 2856 districts and counties of the country.It is the foundation of rapid economic loss assessment of disaster-stricken power network without detailed power network data, which complements the research results on vulnerability of power facilities at home and abroad.The vulnerability curves of various power facilities suitable for rapid evaluation in China are determined.The vulnerability curve of substation indoor equipment is supplemented and the vulnerability curve of GIS substation is tried to be given. In thermal power plant, the vulnerability curve of hydropower station is mainly quoted from foreign achievements because the domestic research is blank and there is no related seismic damage data.For outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment in substation, the vulnerability of transmission lines is mainly obtained by studying the earthquake damage data of Wenchuan earthquake. According to the cost and vulnerability of various parts of power facilities, the substation is divided into outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment.For indoor equipment and building building, a rapid economic loss assessment model with detailed assets, structure types, security conditions and no detailed information for single substation has been established.A fast evaluation model of economic loss considering the risk of seismic and geological hazards is established for single transmission lines, and a relatively simple rapid evaluation model for single thermal power plant and hydropower station is established.Through the test of sample data of Wenchuan earthquake substation, the rationality of the rapid assessment model of general economic loss of ordinary substation is verified. The basic database of power network is established, and the evaluation model of this paper is used.The overall economic losses of transmission lines in substations with seismic intensity of 6 ~ 7 ~ 8 ~ 9 ~ 9 ~ 10 are calculated, and the results are expressed by ArcGIS thematic map.It provides reference for electric power industry and government departments in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction and earthquake emergency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:P315.9;TM7

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