本文選題：自然時間分析 + 地震電信號　； 參考：《中國地震局蘭州地震研究所》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自然時間理論是一門新興理論,由Varotsos P A等人于2001年提出的自然時間域,是對時間模型的一種新觀點。該觀點認為時間不連續(xù),在形式上區(qū)別于傳統(tǒng)的時間域—由實數(shù)集組成的一維連續(xù)模型。將復雜系統(tǒng)時間序列在自然時間域中進行分析,能夠更好地揭示時間序列的動態(tài)特征,提高分析過程準確率,提取更多有用的信號。利用自然時間域還可以研究復雜系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)變化過程,在自然時間域中計算出時間序列的歸一化功率譜Π(ω),當自然頻率ω趨近于0時,對Π(ω)進行泰勒展開,得到Π(ω)≈1-κ1ω2,系數(shù)κ1恰好等于自然時間序列的方差,這一特征可用于判斷復雜系統(tǒng)是否進入臨界階段。地震的三要素(時間、地點和震級)之間具有復雜聯(lián)系,地震能量的釋放以及震前電信號的產生具有臨界特性。對地震目錄進行自然時間分析時,將方差κ1作為序列參數(shù)。結合Varotsos PA和SarlisNV等人研究成果,在主震發(fā)生前的幾小時至數(shù)月,震中區(qū)域的κ1值會接近0.07,其變異系數(shù)會呈現(xiàn)一個小值,這對于我們縮短地震預報窗口很有利用價值。本文在對自然時間方法理論,以及地震電信號的產生機理和識別方法等闡述的基礎上,對我國地震目錄資料及地電場觀測進行了自然時間分析,得到了一些有意義的結果:(1)選取地震目錄中發(fā)生在中國及周邊地區(qū)震級前30位的地震,將所選震例的前震序列轉化至自然時間域,計算每次地震的歸一化能量在自然時間域中的方差κ1及其變異系數(shù)β,將方差κ1作為地震序列參數(shù),利用變異系數(shù)β對序列參數(shù)的波動性進行了定性分析,在此基礎上,又對κ1進行了定量分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在分析的30次震例中有21次從震前半小時至幾月開始,地震序列參數(shù)會具有持續(xù)在0.07上下波動,并在主震發(fā)生前迅速下降至0附近的特點。還對定量分析中時間窗口的選擇以及分析結果中出現(xiàn)的特殊情況進行了簡單討論。相關研究結果對于我國地震事件的回溯性研究以及未來地震預測研究具有較一定的指導意義。(2)介紹地震電信號的物理性質及產生機制,給出了地震電信號具有臨界性的理論依據。引入自然時間理論,對中法合作天祝電磁臺記錄到的地震電信號及人工干擾信號進行了自然時間分析,得到上述兩種信號及均勻分布在自然時間域中方差、熵和歸一化功率譜間的關系。該結論為地震電信號的識別提供了理論和技術支持。
[Abstract]:Natural time theory is a new theory, which was put forward by Varotsos PA et al in 2001. It is a new view of time model.According to this view, the time discontinuity is different from the traditional time domain in form, which is a one-dimensional continuous model composed of real number sets.By analyzing the time series of complex systems in the natural time domain, we can better reveal the dynamic characteristics of the time series, improve the accuracy of the analysis process, and extract more useful signals.The dynamic process of complex system can also be studied by using natural time domain. In the natural time domain, the normalized power spectrum of time series is calculated, and when the natural frequency 蠅 approaches 0, the Taylor expansion is carried out for the 蟺 (蠅).The coefficient 魏 1 is exactly equal to the variance of the natural time series, which can be used to judge whether the complex system has entered the critical stage.The three elements of an earthquake (time, place and magnitude) have complex relationships, and the release of seismic energy and the generation of electrical signals before earthquakes have critical characteristics.In the natural time analysis of the earthquake catalogue, the variance 魏 1 is taken as the sequence parameter.Combined with the research results of Varotsos PA and SarlisNV, the value of 魏 1 in the epicenter region will be close to 0.07 from a few hours to a few months before the occurrence of the main earthquake, and the coefficient of variation will present a small value, which is of great value for us to shorten the earthquake prediction window.Based on the theory of natural time method, the generation mechanism and identification method of seismic electrical signals, the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogue data and geoelectric field observation in China is carried out in this paper.Some meaningful results are obtained: (1) selecting the earthquake occurring in the first 30 places of magnitude in China and its surrounding areas in the earthquake catalogue, and transforming the foreshock sequence of the selected earthquake example into natural time domain.The normalized energy of each earthquake is calculated in the natural time domain, and the variance 魏 1 and its coefficient of variation 尾 are calculated. The variance 魏 1 is taken as the parameter of the earthquake sequence, and the volatility of the sequence parameters is analyzed qualitatively by using the coefficient of variation 尾.The quantitative analysis of 魏 1 was also carried out.It is found that 21 of the 30 earthquake cases analysed from half an hour to a few months before the earthquake, the parameters of the earthquake sequence will fluctuate continuously in the range of 0.07 or so, and will drop rapidly to near zero before the occurrence of the main shock.The selection of time window in quantitative analysis and the special situation in the analysis result are also discussed briefly.The related research results have certain guiding significance for the backtracking study of earthquake events in China and the study of earthquake prediction in the future. It also introduces the physical properties and generating mechanism of seismic electrical signals.The theoretical basis for the criticality of seismic signals is given.By introducing the theory of natural time, the natural time analysis of seismic signal and artificial interference signal recorded by Tianzhu electromagnetic Station of Sino-French Cooperation is carried out, and the variance of these two signals and their uniform distribution in natural time domain are obtained.The relationship between entropy and normalized power spectrum.This conclusion provides theoretical and technical support for seismic signal recognition.
【學位授予單位】：中國地震局蘭州地震研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P315.722

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