本文選題：自然時(shí)間分析 + 地震電信號(hào)　； 參考：《中國(guó)地震局蘭州地震研究所》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自然時(shí)間理論是一門(mén)新興理論,由Varotsos P A等人于2001年提出的自然時(shí)間域,是對(duì)時(shí)間模型的一種新觀點(diǎn)。該觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為時(shí)間不連續(xù),在形式上區(qū)別于傳統(tǒng)的時(shí)間域—由實(shí)數(shù)集組成的一維連續(xù)模型。將復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)時(shí)間序列在自然時(shí)間域中進(jìn)行分析,能夠更好地揭示時(shí)間序列的動(dòng)態(tài)特征,提高分析過(guò)程準(zhǔn)確率,提取更多有用的信號(hào)。利用自然時(shí)間域還可以研究復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的動(dòng)態(tài)變化過(guò)程,在自然時(shí)間域中計(jì)算出時(shí)間序列的歸一化功率譜Π(ω),當(dāng)自然頻率ω趨近于0時(shí),對(duì)Π(ω)進(jìn)行泰勒展開(kāi),得到Π(ω)≈1-κ1ω2,系數(shù)κ1恰好等于自然時(shí)間序列的方差,這一特征可用于判斷復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)是否進(jìn)入臨界階段。地震的三要素(時(shí)間、地點(diǎn)和震級(jí))之間具有復(fù)雜聯(lián)系,地震能量的釋放以及震前電信號(hào)的產(chǎn)生具有臨界特性。對(duì)地震目錄進(jìn)行自然時(shí)間分析時(shí),將方差κ1作為序列參數(shù)。結(jié)合Varotsos PA和SarlisNV等人研究成果,在主震發(fā)生前的幾小時(shí)至數(shù)月,震中區(qū)域的κ1值會(huì)接近0.07,其變異系數(shù)會(huì)呈現(xiàn)一個(gè)小值,這對(duì)于我們縮短地震預(yù)報(bào)窗口很有利用價(jià)值。本文在對(duì)自然時(shí)間方法理論,以及地震電信號(hào)的產(chǎn)生機(jī)理和識(shí)別方法等闡述的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國(guó)地震目錄資料及地電場(chǎng)觀測(cè)進(jìn)行了自然時(shí)間分析,得到了一些有意義的結(jié)果:(1)選取地震目錄中發(fā)生在中國(guó)及周邊地區(qū)震級(jí)前30位的地震,將所選震例的前震序列轉(zhuǎn)化至自然時(shí)間域,計(jì)算每次地震的歸一化能量在自然時(shí)間域中的方差κ1及其變異系數(shù)β,將方差κ1作為地震序列參數(shù),利用變異系數(shù)β對(duì)序列參數(shù)的波動(dòng)性進(jìn)行了定性分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上,又對(duì)κ1進(jìn)行了定量分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在分析的30次震例中有21次從震前半小時(shí)至幾月開(kāi)始,地震序列參數(shù)會(huì)具有持續(xù)在0.07上下波動(dòng),并在主震發(fā)生前迅速下降至0附近的特點(diǎn)。還對(duì)定量分析中時(shí)間窗口的選擇以及分析結(jié)果中出現(xiàn)的特殊情況進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單討論。相關(guān)研究結(jié)果對(duì)于我國(guó)地震事件的回溯性研究以及未來(lái)地震預(yù)測(cè)研究具有較一定的指導(dǎo)意義。(2)介紹地震電信號(hào)的物理性質(zhì)及產(chǎn)生機(jī)制,給出了地震電信號(hào)具有臨界性的理論依據(jù)。引入自然時(shí)間理論,對(duì)中法合作天祝電磁臺(tái)記錄到的地震電信號(hào)及人工干擾信號(hào)進(jìn)行了自然時(shí)間分析,得到上述兩種信號(hào)及均勻分布在自然時(shí)間域中方差、熵和歸一化功率譜間的關(guān)系。該結(jié)論為地震電信號(hào)的識(shí)別提供了理論和技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:Natural time theory is a new theory, which was put forward by Varotsos PA et al in 2001. It is a new view of time model.According to this view, the time discontinuity is different from the traditional time domain in form, which is a one-dimensional continuous model composed of real number sets.By analyzing the time series of complex systems in the natural time domain, we can better reveal the dynamic characteristics of the time series, improve the accuracy of the analysis process, and extract more useful signals.The dynamic process of complex system can also be studied by using natural time domain. In the natural time domain, the normalized power spectrum of time series is calculated, and when the natural frequency 蠅 approaches 0, the Taylor expansion is carried out for the 蟺 (蠅).The coefficient 魏 1 is exactly equal to the variance of the natural time series, which can be used to judge whether the complex system has entered the critical stage.The three elements of an earthquake (time, place and magnitude) have complex relationships, and the release of seismic energy and the generation of electrical signals before earthquakes have critical characteristics.In the natural time analysis of the earthquake catalogue, the variance 魏 1 is taken as the sequence parameter.Combined with the research results of Varotsos PA and SarlisNV, the value of 魏 1 in the epicenter region will be close to 0.07 from a few hours to a few months before the occurrence of the main earthquake, and the coefficient of variation will present a small value, which is of great value for us to shorten the earthquake prediction window.Based on the theory of natural time method, the generation mechanism and identification method of seismic electrical signals, the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogue data and geoelectric field observation in China is carried out in this paper.Some meaningful results are obtained: (1) selecting the earthquake occurring in the first 30 places of magnitude in China and its surrounding areas in the earthquake catalogue, and transforming the foreshock sequence of the selected earthquake example into natural time domain.The normalized energy of each earthquake is calculated in the natural time domain, and the variance 魏 1 and its coefficient of variation 尾 are calculated. The variance 魏 1 is taken as the parameter of the earthquake sequence, and the volatility of the sequence parameters is analyzed qualitatively by using the coefficient of variation 尾.The quantitative analysis of 魏 1 was also carried out.It is found that 21 of the 30 earthquake cases analysed from half an hour to a few months before the earthquake, the parameters of the earthquake sequence will fluctuate continuously in the range of 0.07 or so, and will drop rapidly to near zero before the occurrence of the main shock.The selection of time window in quantitative analysis and the special situation in the analysis result are also discussed briefly.The related research results have certain guiding significance for the backtracking study of earthquake events in China and the study of earthquake prediction in the future. It also introduces the physical properties and generating mechanism of seismic electrical signals.The theoretical basis for the criticality of seismic signals is given.By introducing the theory of natural time, the natural time analysis of seismic signal and artificial interference signal recorded by Tianzhu electromagnetic Station of Sino-French Cooperation is carried out, and the variance of these two signals and their uniform distribution in natural time domain are obtained.The relationship between entropy and normalized power spectrum.This conclusion provides theoretical and technical support for seismic signal recognition.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地震局蘭州地震研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P315.722

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