本文選題：邊坡　切入點(diǎn)：空間變異性　出處：《巖土力學(xué)》2017年02期

【摘要】：常用的計(jì)算失效模式間近似相關(guān)系數(shù)存在一定的誤差,采用Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)準(zhǔn)確地表征邊坡失效模式間相關(guān)性�；诮葡嚓P(guān)系數(shù)和Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù),研究了土體參數(shù)空間變異性對(duì)邊坡失效模式間相關(guān)性、代表性失效模式數(shù)目、邊坡系統(tǒng)失效概率上、下限3方面的影響。簡(jiǎn)要介紹了選取邊坡代表性滑動(dòng)面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)聚類法以及系統(tǒng)失效概率上、下限的Ditlevsen雙模界限公式。以單層和兩層邊坡為例研究了近似相關(guān)系數(shù)的適用性。結(jié)果表明:常用的近似相關(guān)系數(shù)不能考慮土體參數(shù)空間變異性對(duì)邊坡失效模式間相關(guān)性的影響,而Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)能夠有效地反映土體參數(shù)空間變異性對(duì)邊坡失效模式間相關(guān)性的影響。當(dāng)土體參數(shù)空間變異性較弱時(shí),近似相關(guān)系數(shù)與Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)間差別明顯,基于近似相關(guān)系數(shù)會(huì)選取過多的代表性滑動(dòng)面,不能有效地反映邊坡代表性破壞模式。此外,基于近似相關(guān)系數(shù)計(jì)算的邊坡系統(tǒng)失效概率上限會(huì)超過1,系統(tǒng)失效概率上、下限范圍很寬,使得系統(tǒng)失效概率上、下限失去了意義。相比之下,基于Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)計(jì)算的邊坡系統(tǒng)失效概率上、下限范圍較窄,能夠有效地反映系統(tǒng)失效概率變化情況。
[Abstract]:There is a certain error in calculating the approximate correlation coefficient between failure modes. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to accurately characterize the correlation between slope failure modes. Based on the approximate correlation coefficient and Pearson correlation coefficient, The correlation between the spatial variability of soil parameters and slope failure modes, the number of representative failure modes and the failure probability of slope system are studied. This paper briefly introduces the risk clustering method for selecting the representative slip surface of slope and the failure probability of the system. The applicability of the approximate correlation coefficient is studied by taking single-layer and two-story slopes as examples. The results show that the commonly used approximate correlation coefficients can not take into account the influence of spatial variability of soil parameters on the correlation between slope failure modes. Pearson correlation coefficient can effectively reflect the influence of spatial variability of soil parameters on the correlation between slope failure modes. When the spatial variability of soil parameters is weak, the difference between approximate correlation coefficient and Pearson correlation coefficient is obvious. Based on the approximate correlation coefficient, too many representative sliding surfaces will be selected, which can not effectively reflect the representative failure mode of slope. In addition, the upper limit of failure probability of slope system calculated based on approximate correlation coefficient will exceed 1, and the failure probability of slope system will exceed 1. The lower limit range is very wide, which makes the system failure probability higher and lower bound meaningless. Compared with the slope system failure probability calculated based on Pearson correlation coefficient, the lower limit range is narrower, which can effectively reflect the change of system failure probability.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)水資源與水電工程科學(xué)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;武漢大學(xué)水工巖石力學(xué)教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國家杰出青年科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(No.51225903) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(No.51329901,No.51679174) 湖北省自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新群體項(xiàng)目(No.2014CFA001)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TU43

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