本文選題：鐵礦石　切入點(diǎn)：協(xié)整分析　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)投資拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)模式和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的興建,拉動(dòng)了對(duì)鋼鐵的巨大需求。而視為鋼鐵冶煉重要的原材料之一的鐵礦石跟著水漲船高,需求量節(jié)節(jié)飆升。雖然中國(guó)鐵礦石儲(chǔ)量可觀,但是因?yàn)殚_采成本高、品質(zhì)、品位較低,因此澳大利亞、巴西成為我國(guó)主要的進(jìn)口來源國(guó)。2013年中國(guó)進(jìn)口量占世界進(jìn)口總量的65.5%,對(duì)外依存度達(dá)72.5%。作為世界最大的鐵礦石進(jìn)口國(guó),“中國(guó)需求”成為世界鐵礦石貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)的晴雨表,推動(dòng)了鐵礦石價(jià)格的逐年增加。但是自從2003年中國(guó)第一次加入國(guó)際鐵礦石長(zhǎng)協(xié)議價(jià)格談判以來,僅有2007年取得了首發(fā)定價(jià)權(quán),其他年份都淪為談判的看客,被迫接受節(jié)節(jié)攀升的高價(jià)帶給中國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)的沉重負(fù)擔(dān)。長(zhǎng)協(xié)議價(jià)格的產(chǎn)生順應(yīng)了當(dāng)時(shí)貿(mào)易雙方的長(zhǎng)期利益,但隨著中國(guó)的超額需求和以此引發(fā)現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的繁榮,使得長(zhǎng)協(xié)議定價(jià)機(jī)制再不能滿足三大礦山的最大化利益的需求。在三大礦山強(qiáng)勢(shì)的推動(dòng)下,舊定價(jià)機(jī)制走向盡頭,取而代之的指數(shù)化定價(jià),定價(jià)周期更短,鐵礦石的進(jìn)口價(jià)格波動(dòng)更加激烈,對(duì)現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的反映更加及時(shí),現(xiàn)行價(jià)格的波動(dòng)更能反映供需關(guān)系的變化。本文分為六章,第一章緒論介紹了本文研究背景和意義以及國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀。第二章分別介紹了世界鐵礦石進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易和中國(guó)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀。第三章梳理了鐵礦石定價(jià)機(jī)制的歷史演變。第四章采用了實(shí)行新定價(jià)機(jī)制后的2012年至2014年的月度數(shù)據(jù),選取可能影響價(jià)格的因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。利用Eviews8.0經(jīng)過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)得出美元指數(shù)、進(jìn)口總量和粗鋼產(chǎn)量對(duì)鐵礦石進(jìn)口價(jià)格有著重要影響。第五章以影響因素分析的結(jié)果向政府和鋼鐵企業(yè)提出穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)價(jià)格、爭(zhēng)奪鐵礦石價(jià)格話語權(quán)的相關(guān)建議。本文從供需關(guān)系影響價(jià)格變動(dòng)為視角,對(duì)進(jìn)口鐵礦石的價(jià)格影響因素進(jìn)行研究,并結(jié)合“新絲綢之路”等最新實(shí)時(shí)新聞提出建議,具有積極和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Chinese investment driven economic model and infrastructure construction, boosting the huge demand for steel. And as one of the important raw materials of iron and steel smelting iron ore continued to rise, the demand is soaring. Although China iron ore reserves, but because of the high cost of mining quality, low grade, Australia, Brazil to become China's main source of imports of.2013 China imports accounted for 65.5% of the world's total imports, the foreign dependency rate reached 72.5%. as the world's largest importer of iron ore, "Chinese demand" has become a barometer of the world iron ore trade market, to promote the iron ore prices increased year by year. But since 2003, the first time to join China the international iron ore price negotiations long protocol, only in 2007 made the first pricing, other years into negotiations spectators, was forced to accept the rising price Give a heavy burden China of iron and steel industry. The price agreement with long time trade on both sides of the long-term interests, but with excess demand China and thus lead to the stock market boom, the long agreement pricing mechanism and can not meet the demand to maximize the benefits of the three mines. In three mines under the strong push. The old pricing mechanism towards the end, price indexation instead, pricing is shorter, imports of iron ore price volatility is more intense, reflect on the stock market more timely, fluctuations in current prices can reflect changes in supply and demand. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter introduces the background and significance of this study at home and abroad study on the present situation. The second chapter introduces the world iron ore import and export trade and import trade China status. The third chapter reviews the evolution of the iron ore pricing mechanism of fourth Zhang Cai history. Using the monthly data of the implementation of the new pricing mechanism after 2012 to 2014, the empirical analysis of the impact of price factors. By using Eviews8.0 cointegration test, Grainger causality has an important impact on the dollar index, total imports and crude steel production of iron ore import prices. In the fifth chapter, the analysis of factors influencing the results of to stabilize the market price to the government and the iron and steel enterprises, relevant suggestions for iron ore prices right. This paper from the relationship between supply and demand price changes from the perspective of the factors affecting the price of imported iron ore, combined with the "New Silk Road" of the latest real-time news suggested that has a positive and practical significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.1;F752.61

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