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  本文關鍵詞： D-S證據(jù)理論 狀態(tài)躍遷 降雨特征向量　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：滑坡是危害最大的地質(zhì)災害之一,它對公共設施以及人民生命財產(chǎn)安全造成極大的威脅和損失。順層滑坡是三峽庫區(qū)最常見的滑坡類型之一。而且該類滑坡一旦失穩(wěn),對庫區(qū)安全造成極大的破壞。研究表明,順層滑坡處于緩慢蠕滑階段時,滑坡啟動的可能性非常��；而滑坡處于加速變形階段時,滑坡啟動的可能性就大大增加了。因此研究滑坡躍遷到加速變形階段的概率對滑坡的預測預報有重大的應用價值。本文以白水河滑坡"ZG93"監(jiān)測點為研究對象,對滑坡狀態(tài)躍遷到加速變形階段的概率問題展開了深入的研究。主要的研究內(nèi)容如下：(1)擴充樣本數(shù)據(jù)。運用工程類比法和人工降雨實驗,擴充樣本作為先驗數(shù)據(jù)。(2)對先驗數(shù)據(jù)進行預處理。對滑坡位移累計數(shù)據(jù)、降雨數(shù)據(jù)、庫水位數(shù)據(jù)分別進行分析處理,對滑坡狀態(tài)進行劃分,提取降雨特征向量。(3)運用D-S證據(jù)理論對先驗數(shù)據(jù)進行融合。結(jié)合白水河滑坡的地質(zhì)和水文條件,確定“滑坡是否躍遷到加速變形階段”的評價指標、識別框架；采用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)方法對先驗數(shù)據(jù)進行計算得到各評價指標的基本概率分布,并聯(lián)合構(gòu)成基本可信度；利用Dempster合成法則計算基本可信度最終的躍遷概率。本文的主要創(chuàng)新點如下：(1)運用D-S證據(jù)理論客觀地探究滑坡的狀態(tài)躍遷問題,不僅保留了專家知識的優(yōu)點,還將人工智能和數(shù)學的客觀有效性引進來,能夠?qū)聽顟B(tài)躍遷的研究提供一種參考方法。(2)通過對降雨數(shù)據(jù)的特征分析、特征提取,結(jié)合白水河滑坡的地質(zhì)特征,在保留降雨數(shù)據(jù)內(nèi)在聯(lián)系及規(guī)律的基礎上,獲得了加權求和后的蒸發(fā)量、入滲量、徑流量的表達式[α β,γ],以此作為每個月的三維降雨特征向量。通過以上研究,在以白水河滑坡為工程實例的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),運用統(tǒng)計的方法從大量的先驗數(shù)據(jù)中計算得到各個評價指標的基本概率分布。在前期滑坡狀態(tài)處于等速變形階段時的躍遷概率最大；在降雨特征向量屬于第一類時的躍遷概率最大；在庫水位變化屬于第一類時的躍遷概率最大。運用D-S證據(jù)理論對3個評價指標進行融合,當某月3個評價指標各自的躍遷概率均處在最大時,滑坡狀態(tài)躍遷到加速變形階段的概率很大。
[Abstract]:Landslide is one of the most dangerous geological hazards, which poses a great threat and loss to the safety of public facilities and people's lives and property. The bedding landslide is one of the most common landslide types in the three Gorges Reservoir area, and once the landslide is unstable, The research shows that when the bedding landslide is in the slow creep stage, the probability of the landslide starting is very small, while the landslide is in the accelerated deformation stage, The probability of landslide initiation is greatly increased. Therefore, the study of the probability of landslide transition to accelerated deformation stage has great application value for landslide prediction and prediction. In this paper, the "ZG93" monitoring point of Baishui River landslide is taken as the research object. In this paper, the probabilistic problem of landslide transition to accelerated deformation is studied in depth. The main research contents are as follows: 1) expand the sample data, use engineering analogy method and artificial rainfall experiment, The expanded sample is used as prior data to preprocess the prior data. The accumulated data of landslide displacement, rainfall data and reservoir water level data are analyzed and processed, respectively, and the landslide state is divided. Extraction of rainfall characteristic vector. (3) using D-S evidence theory to fuse the prior data. Combining with the geological and hydrological conditions of the Baishui River landslide, the evaluation index of "whether the landslide moves to the accelerated deformation stage" is determined and the identification framework is established. The basic probability distribution of each evaluation index is obtained by using statistical data method to calculate the prior data, and the basic reliability is constructed jointly. The main innovation of this paper is as follows: (1) using D-S evidence theory to explore the state transition problem of landslide objectively, not only the advantage of expert knowledge is retained, but also the advantage of expert knowledge is preserved. The objective validity of artificial intelligence and mathematics is also introduced, which can provide a reference method for the study of landslide state transition. Through the characteristic analysis and feature extraction of rainfall data, combined with the geological characteristics of Baishui River landslide, On the basis of preserving the internal relation and regularity of rainfall data, the expressions [偽 尾, 緯] of evaporation, infiltration and runoff after weighted summation are obtained, which are taken as the three dimensional rainfall characteristic vectors of each month. In the study of Baishuihe landslide as an engineering example, it is found that the statistical method is used to calculate the basic probability distribution of each evaluation index from a large number of prior data, and the transition probability is the largest when the landslide is in the stage of isokinetic deformation. The transition probability is the largest when the rainfall characteristic vector belongs to the first category, and the transition probability is the greatest when the water level of the reservoir belongs to the first class. The D-S evidence theory is used to fuse the three evaluation indexes. When the transition probabilities of each of the three evaluation indexes are at the maximum, the probability of transition from landslide to accelerated deformation is very large.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P642.22

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