本文關鍵詞： 成蘭鐵路松潘段 泥石流 危險性評價 易損性評價 風險評價FLO-2D 模型　出處：《成都理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：成蘭鐵路起于四川省成都市,向北延伸連接至甘肅省境內擬建蘭渝鐵路的哈達鋪站,與甘肅省蘭州市相連,是連通我國西南和西北的區(qū)域干線鐵路中的重要一支。成蘭鐵路松潘段處于川西高原和四川盆地過渡地帶,沿線多處泥石流發(fā)育,對區(qū)段內鐵路建設和運營構成威脅。本文結合成蘭鐵路松潘段線路選線設計和野外現(xiàn)場調查數(shù)據(jù),針對此區(qū)段內12條對鐵路工程構成直接威脅的泥石流流域,運用數(shù)學理論模型、GIS技術和數(shù)值模擬等計算分析手段,分別從區(qū)域和單溝兩方面著手對鐵路工程泥石流風險評估進行了研究,以建立較為系統(tǒng)的鐵路泥石流風險評估方法體系。通過對研究區(qū)內圖像資料、地形地質數(shù)據(jù)、降水資料和泥石流野外調查數(shù)據(jù)的總結整理,分析了沿線泥石流主要類型和發(fā)育分布特征。參考前人對泥石流危險性評價研究和根據(jù)泥石流致災機理,本文選取了泥石流規(guī)模、泥石流爆發(fā)頻率、溝域面積、主溝長度、流域最大高差、主溝平均比降、流域切割密度、松散固體物質儲量、堵塞系數(shù)、泥沙補給段長度比10個評價因子構建了泥石流危險性評價指標體系,并依次對其取值及進行標準化和規(guī)范化。利用熵權法確定泥石流危險性評價指標權重,建立了泥石流危險性評價模型,并依據(jù)危險性分級標準,得出沿線泥石流危險性分布圖和泥石流危險性路段分區(qū)圖。由于成蘭鐵路松潘段目前正處于在建階段,本文嘗試從鐵路工程設施遭受泥石流后其自身發(fā)生損毀的難易程度出發(fā)進行鐵路工程易損性評估。從鐵路工程選址因素、工程建設規(guī)格與結構因素和泥石流災害特征三方面選取8個評價因子作為鐵路工程易損性評價指標,并依據(jù)層次分析法計算出各評價指標權重值,結合集對分析理論建立鐵路工程設施易損性評價模型,計算出各泥石流發(fā)育路段鐵路工程設施易損值。最后依據(jù)鐵路工程設施易損性分級標準,得出沿線泥石流鐵路工程易損進行分區(qū)圖。結合得出的沿線泥石流的危險性評估易損性成果,據(jù)泥石流災害風險評價模型即“風險度(R)=危險度(H)×易損度(V)”,對沿線鐵路泥石流進行風險評估,得出成蘭鐵路松潘段沿線泥石流風險分布圖,結果顯示沿線泥石流風險主要為低度和中度風險級別,由此此區(qū)段內鐵路選線設計較為合理。文中選取東龍溝泥石流作為典型溝進行單溝風險性評價,基于FLO-2D模型在取得不同重現(xiàn)周期下數(shù)值模擬參數(shù)的基礎上對東龍溝泥石流重現(xiàn)周期為50年一遇和100年一遇下的泥石流體運用堆積過程進行模擬,獲取在兩種重現(xiàn)周期下的泥石流體流深和流速的分布情況。以流深與流速的乘積為泥石流強度因子對東龍溝進行了泥石流體強度分區(qū),并在此基礎上結合重現(xiàn)周期得到東龍溝泥石流危險性分區(qū)圖;依據(jù)Jakob等學者研究成果泥石流建筑易損函數(shù)及易損曲線對東龍溝泥石流堆積區(qū)域進行了易損性分區(qū),鐵路基礎設施工程和鎮(zhèn)江關車站主要位于低易損性區(qū)域;將東龍溝泥石流危險性分區(qū)與易損性分區(qū)進行疊加分析,得到東龍溝泥石流風險區(qū)劃圖,結果顯示成蘭鐵路在東龍溝溝口區(qū)域區(qū)段位于中風險性區(qū)域,其余位于東龍溝泥石流危險范圍的鐵路線路和鎮(zhèn)江關車站則位于低風險區(qū)域。對于東龍溝泥石流風險分析,兩套風險評價方法所得結果顯示其風險等級為中度風險,盡管基于數(shù)值模擬的單溝風險分析結果中有部分鐵路工程處于低度風險區(qū)域,但是總體上二者評價結果基本能夠對應吻合,從而能夠驗證此兩套方法評價結果有效度是可取的。
[Abstract]:Chenglan railway starts from Sichuan Province, Chengdu City, Gansu Province, north extension connected to the Lan Yu railway Hadapu station, connected with the Gansu city of Lanzhou Province, is communicated with the southwest China and northwest regional trunk railway. As an important branch of the Lanzhou railway section of Songpan in the transition zone of Western Sichuan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, along mudslides pose a threat to the development, construction and operation of the railway section. Based on the Chenglan railway Songpan section line design and field survey data, in section 12 constitutes a direct threat to the debris flow of railway engineering domain, using mathematical model, GIS technology and numerical simulation calculation analysis method. Respectively from the two aspects of regional and single channel of Railway Engineering debris flow risk assessment study was carried out to establish the risk assessment method system of railway debris flow systematically. Based on the study area Image data, geological data, precipitation data and field survey data of debris flow are summarized, analyzed the main types and distribution characteristics of debris flow along the development. With reference to the former on the debris flow risk assessment research and according to the mechanism of disaster caused by debris flow, the debris flow scale, debris flow frequency, gully area, main gully length, watershed the biggest difference, the average main channel slope, valley cutting density, loose solid material reserves, blockage coefficient, sediment supply length ratio of 10 evaluation factors to construct the debris flow risk assessment index system, and in turn to its value and standardization. To determine the debris flow risk assessment index weight by entropy method and the establishment of a debris flow risk assessment model, and on the basis of risk classification standard, concludes that the debris flow hazard distribution and debris flow hazard zoning map. Because the road Chenglan railway section of Songpan is currently in the construction phase, this thesis attempts to railway engineering vulnerability assessment of the degree of difficulty from the railway engineering facilities damaged by debris flow after its occurrence. The railway engineering construction specifications and location factors, structural factors and debris flow characteristics of the three aspects selects 8 evaluation factors as vulnerability assessment the index of railway engineering, and based on the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight value of each assessment index, combined with the railway engineering facilities vulnerability evaluation model set pair analysis theory to calculate the debris flow development road railway engineering facilities. Finally based on the vulnerability value of vulnerability classification standard of railway engineering facilities, draw along the railway engineering vulnerability zoning map of debris flow the combination of risk. The assessment results along the debris flow vulnerability, according to the risk assessment of debris flow disaster risk model "(R) = The risk degree of vulnerability (H) * (V), to evaluate the risk of debris flow along the railway, the Chenglan railway Songpan section along the debris flow risk distribution map shows along the debris flow risk is mainly low and moderate risk level, so this section of railway line design is reasonable. As a typical single ditch ditch risk evaluation of debris flow ditch the East, based on the FLO-2D model in the basis of numerical simulation of different return cycle parameters on Donglong gully debris flow using the return period for 50 years and 100 years of accumulation process was simulated, the distribution of access flow depth and velocity of debris flow in two kinds of reproduction cycle the product to flow depth and velocity for debris flow intensity factors of debris flow intensity area on the Donglong ditch, and on this basis with the return period by Donglong gully mud rock Liuwei Risk zoning map; according to Jakob research results of debris flow vulnerability and fragility curves of the building function Donglong gully area of the accumulation of vulnerability zoning, railway infrastructure projects and Zhenjiang station located mainly in the low vulnerability area; the Long Gully debris flow risk zoning and vulnerability zoning overlay analysis, get the debris flow risk zoning results show Donglong map, is located in the Chenglan railway risk area in the gully region Donglong section, the rest is in the range of dangerous Donglong gully railway line and Zhenjiang station is located in low risk area. Analysis of debris flow risk for long, two sets of risk assessment results show that the risk rating of moderate risk, though based on the analysis of single channel risk and the results of numerical simulation are part of Railway Engineering in low risk area, but overall the two rating The value of the two methods can be basically matched, thus it is advisable to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation results of the methods.

【學位授予單位】：成都理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U212.2;P642.23

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