本文關(guān)鍵詞： 成蘭鐵路松潘段 泥石流 危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià) 易損性評(píng)價(jià) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)FLO-2D 模型　出處：《成都理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：成蘭鐵路起于四川省成都市,向北延伸連接至甘肅省境內(nèi)擬建蘭渝鐵路的哈達(dá)鋪站,與甘肅省蘭州市相連,是連通我國(guó)西南和西北的區(qū)域干線鐵路中的重要一支。成蘭鐵路松潘段處于川西高原和四川盆地過渡地帶,沿線多處泥石流發(fā)育,對(duì)區(qū)段內(nèi)鐵路建設(shè)和運(yùn)營(yíng)構(gòu)成威脅。本文結(jié)合成蘭鐵路松潘段線路選線設(shè)計(jì)和野外現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),針對(duì)此區(qū)段內(nèi)12條對(duì)鐵路工程構(gòu)成直接威脅的泥石流流域,運(yùn)用數(shù)學(xué)理論模型、GIS技術(shù)和數(shù)值模擬等計(jì)算分析手段,分別從區(qū)域和單溝兩方面著手對(duì)鐵路工程泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估進(jìn)行了研究,以建立較為系統(tǒng)的鐵路泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法體系。通過對(duì)研究區(qū)內(nèi)圖像資料、地形地質(zhì)數(shù)據(jù)、降水資料和泥石流野外調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的總結(jié)整理,分析了沿線泥石流主要類型和發(fā)育分布特征。參考前人對(duì)泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)研究和根據(jù)泥石流致災(zāi)機(jī)理,本文選取了泥石流規(guī)模、泥石流爆發(fā)頻率、溝域面積、主溝長(zhǎng)度、流域最大高差、主溝平均比降、流域切割密度、松散固體物質(zhì)儲(chǔ)量、堵塞系數(shù)、泥沙補(bǔ)給段長(zhǎng)度比10個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)因子構(gòu)建了泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并依次對(duì)其取值及進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和規(guī)范化。利用熵權(quán)法確定泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,建立了泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)模型,并依據(jù)危險(xiǎn)性分級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),得出沿線泥石流危險(xiǎn)性分布圖和泥石流危險(xiǎn)性路段分區(qū)圖。由于成蘭鐵路松潘段目前正處于在建階段,本文嘗試從鐵路工程設(shè)施遭受泥石流后其自身發(fā)生損毀的難易程度出發(fā)進(jìn)行鐵路工程易損性評(píng)估。從鐵路工程選址因素、工程建設(shè)規(guī)格與結(jié)構(gòu)因素和泥石流災(zāi)害特征三方面選取8個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)因子作為鐵路工程易損性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),并依據(jù)層次分析法計(jì)算出各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重值,結(jié)合集對(duì)分析理論建立鐵路工程設(shè)施易損性評(píng)價(jià)模型,計(jì)算出各泥石流發(fā)育路段鐵路工程設(shè)施易損值。最后依據(jù)鐵路工程設(shè)施易損性分級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),得出沿線泥石流鐵路工程易損進(jìn)行分區(qū)圖。結(jié)合得出的沿線泥石流的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估易損性成果,據(jù)泥石流災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型即“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度(R)=危險(xiǎn)度(H)×易損度(V)”,對(duì)沿線鐵路泥石流進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,得出成蘭鐵路松潘段沿線泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布圖,結(jié)果顯示沿線泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要為低度和中度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別,由此此區(qū)段內(nèi)鐵路選線設(shè)計(jì)較為合理。文中選取東龍溝泥石流作為典型溝進(jìn)行單溝風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià),基于FLO-2D模型在取得不同重現(xiàn)周期下數(shù)值模擬參數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)東龍溝泥石流重現(xiàn)周期為50年一遇和100年一遇下的泥石流體運(yùn)用堆積過程進(jìn)行模擬,獲取在兩種重現(xiàn)周期下的泥石流體流深和流速的分布情況。以流深與流速的乘積為泥石流強(qiáng)度因子對(duì)東龍溝進(jìn)行了泥石流體強(qiáng)度分區(qū),并在此基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合重現(xiàn)周期得到東龍溝泥石流危險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)圖;依據(jù)Jakob等學(xué)者研究成果泥石流建筑易損函數(shù)及易損曲線對(duì)東龍溝泥石流堆積區(qū)域進(jìn)行了易損性分區(qū),鐵路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施工程和鎮(zhèn)江關(guān)車站主要位于低易損性區(qū)域;將東龍溝泥石流危險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)與易損性分區(qū)進(jìn)行疊加分析,得到東龍溝泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃圖,結(jié)果顯示成蘭鐵路在東龍溝溝口區(qū)域區(qū)段位于中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性區(qū)域,其余位于東龍溝泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍的鐵路線路和鎮(zhèn)江關(guān)車站則位于低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)域。對(duì)于東龍溝泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,兩套風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法所得結(jié)果顯示其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為中度風(fēng)險(xiǎn),盡管基于數(shù)值模擬的單溝風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果中有部分鐵路工程處于低度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)域,但是總體上二者評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果基本能夠?qū)?yīng)吻合,從而能夠驗(yàn)證此兩套方法評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果有效度是可取的。
[Abstract]:Chenglan railway starts from Sichuan Province, Chengdu City, Gansu Province, north extension connected to the Lan Yu railway Hadapu station, connected with the Gansu city of Lanzhou Province, is communicated with the southwest China and northwest regional trunk railway. As an important branch of the Lanzhou railway section of Songpan in the transition zone of Western Sichuan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, along mudslides pose a threat to the development, construction and operation of the railway section. Based on the Chenglan railway Songpan section line design and field survey data, in section 12 constitutes a direct threat to the debris flow of railway engineering domain, using mathematical model, GIS technology and numerical simulation calculation analysis method. Respectively from the two aspects of regional and single channel of Railway Engineering debris flow risk assessment study was carried out to establish the risk assessment method system of railway debris flow systematically. Based on the study area Image data, geological data, precipitation data and field survey data of debris flow are summarized, analyzed the main types and distribution characteristics of debris flow along the development. With reference to the former on the debris flow risk assessment research and according to the mechanism of disaster caused by debris flow, the debris flow scale, debris flow frequency, gully area, main gully length, watershed the biggest difference, the average main channel slope, valley cutting density, loose solid material reserves, blockage coefficient, sediment supply length ratio of 10 evaluation factors to construct the debris flow risk assessment index system, and in turn to its value and standardization. To determine the debris flow risk assessment index weight by entropy method and the establishment of a debris flow risk assessment model, and on the basis of risk classification standard, concludes that the debris flow hazard distribution and debris flow hazard zoning map. Because the road Chenglan railway section of Songpan is currently in the construction phase, this thesis attempts to railway engineering vulnerability assessment of the degree of difficulty from the railway engineering facilities damaged by debris flow after its occurrence. The railway engineering construction specifications and location factors, structural factors and debris flow characteristics of the three aspects selects 8 evaluation factors as vulnerability assessment the index of railway engineering, and based on the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight value of each assessment index, combined with the railway engineering facilities vulnerability evaluation model set pair analysis theory to calculate the debris flow development road railway engineering facilities. Finally based on the vulnerability value of vulnerability classification standard of railway engineering facilities, draw along the railway engineering vulnerability zoning map of debris flow the combination of risk. The assessment results along the debris flow vulnerability, according to the risk assessment of debris flow disaster risk model "(R) = The risk degree of vulnerability (H) * (V), to evaluate the risk of debris flow along the railway, the Chenglan railway Songpan section along the debris flow risk distribution map shows along the debris flow risk is mainly low and moderate risk level, so this section of railway line design is reasonable. As a typical single ditch ditch risk evaluation of debris flow ditch the East, based on the FLO-2D model in the basis of numerical simulation of different return cycle parameters on Donglong gully debris flow using the return period for 50 years and 100 years of accumulation process was simulated, the distribution of access flow depth and velocity of debris flow in two kinds of reproduction cycle the product to flow depth and velocity for debris flow intensity factors of debris flow intensity area on the Donglong ditch, and on this basis with the return period by Donglong gully mud rock Liuwei Risk zoning map; according to Jakob research results of debris flow vulnerability and fragility curves of the building function Donglong gully area of the accumulation of vulnerability zoning, railway infrastructure projects and Zhenjiang station located mainly in the low vulnerability area; the Long Gully debris flow risk zoning and vulnerability zoning overlay analysis, get the debris flow risk zoning results show Donglong map, is located in the Chenglan railway risk area in the gully region Donglong section, the rest is in the range of dangerous Donglong gully railway line and Zhenjiang station is located in low risk area. Analysis of debris flow risk for long, two sets of risk assessment results show that the risk rating of moderate risk, though based on the analysis of single channel risk and the results of numerical simulation are part of Railway Engineering in low risk area, but overall the two rating The value of the two methods can be basically matched, thus it is advisable to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation results of the methods.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U212.2;P642.23

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