本文關(guān)鍵詞： 崩塌 失穩(wěn)概率 易損性 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在國(guó)內(nèi)外崩塌災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文通過(guò)對(duì)神木縣鳳頭山崩塌隱患體進(jìn)行野外實(shí)地調(diào)查和室內(nèi)分析,對(duì)其進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),提出了適用于鳳頭山崩塌隱患體以及其治理工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法。主要研究成果如下:⑴在野外調(diào)查、詳細(xì)勘查及室內(nèi)實(shí)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)赤平投影法、蒙特卡洛法分別分析評(píng)價(jià)了鳳頭山崩塌隱患體的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。通過(guò)赤平投影法定性判別該崩塌隱患體處于欠穩(wěn)定狀態(tài);針對(duì)三種不同工況下的崩塌隱患體,采用蒙特卡洛法分別分析其失穩(wěn)概率,計(jì)算結(jié)果表明:在天然工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.2942;在暴雨工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.5050;在地震工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.6092。⑵對(duì)崩塌隱患體影響范圍內(nèi)的承災(zāi)體的易損性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。首先確定崩塌隱患體影響范圍內(nèi)的承災(zāi)體,并對(duì)其進(jìn)行分類(lèi),進(jìn)而對(duì)每一類(lèi)承災(zāi)體的價(jià)值損失率進(jìn)行計(jì)算,最終得到全部潛在承災(zāi)體的價(jià)值損失總值;根據(jù)上述計(jì)算結(jié)果,通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的計(jì)算公式,得到鳳頭山崩塌隱患體在三種工況下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值分別為:天然工況下84.2871萬(wàn)元、暴雨工況下198.7190萬(wàn)元、地震工況下480.9061萬(wàn)元。⑶本文通過(guò)建立基于模糊綜合評(píng)判的治理工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型,結(jié)合層次分析法確定各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,進(jìn)而深入分析治理工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的發(fā)生概率,以及這些因素對(duì)治理工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的影響程度。本文以鳳頭山崩塌隱患體為例,對(duì)崩塌隱患體以及相應(yīng)的治理工程所存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析與評(píng)價(jià);其中對(duì)于其他單體崩塌及其治理工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析與評(píng)估來(lái)說(shuō),本文采用的技術(shù)方法和研究思路有一定的參考價(jià)值、借鑒意義,并為政府決策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the research results of risk assessment of collapse disaster at home and abroad, through field investigation and indoor analysis of the hidden danger body of Fengtou Mountain collapse in Shenmu County, this paper carries on systematic risk evaluation to it. This paper puts forward a risk evaluation method suitable for Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body and its control project. The main research results are as follows: 1. On the basis of field investigation, detailed investigation and indoor experiments, the method of plain projection is adopted. The Monte Carlo method is used to analyze and evaluate the stable state of the hidden collapse body in Fengtou Mountain respectively. The hidden collapse hidden danger body is identified qualitatively by the red plane projection method. Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the probability of instability respectively. The calculated results show that the probability of instability of hidden collapse body is 0.2942 under natural condition, 0.5050 under rainstorm condition, 0.50 under earthquake condition. The failure probability of the hidden collapse body is 0.6092.2 to evaluate the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body. Firstly, the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body is determined and classified. Then the value loss rate of each type of disaster bearing body is calculated, and the total value loss value of all potential disaster bearing body is obtained. According to the above calculation results, the calculation formula of risk value is used. The risk values of Fengtou mountain collapse hidden danger body under three conditions are: 842,871 yuan under natural condition, one million nine hundred and eighty-seven thousand and one hundred and ninety yuan under rainstorm condition, four million eight hundred and nine thousand and sixty-one yuan under earthquake condition. This paper establishes the risk evaluation model of governance engineering based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Combined with Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the weight of each index is determined, and then the probability of risk factors in treatment project and the influence of these factors on risk loss of treatment project are analyzed in depth. This paper takes Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body as an example. To analyze and evaluate the risk of the hidden danger of collapse and the corresponding treatment project, and to analyze and evaluate the risk of the other individual collapse and its treatment project, The technical methods and research ideas adopted in this paper have certain reference value, reference significance, and provide scientific basis for government decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P642.21

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