本文關(guān)鍵詞： 崩塌 失穩(wěn)概率 易損性 風(fēng)險評價　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在國內(nèi)外崩塌災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文通過對神木縣鳳頭山崩塌隱患體進行野外實地調(diào)查和室內(nèi)分析,對其進行系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險評價,提出了適用于鳳頭山崩塌隱患體以及其治理工程的風(fēng)險評價方法。主要研究成果如下:⑴在野外調(diào)查、詳細勘查及室內(nèi)實驗的基礎(chǔ)上,通過赤平投影法、蒙特卡洛法分別分析評價了鳳頭山崩塌隱患體的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。通過赤平投影法定性判別該崩塌隱患體處于欠穩(wěn)定狀態(tài);針對三種不同工況下的崩塌隱患體,采用蒙特卡洛法分別分析其失穩(wěn)概率,計算結(jié)果表明:在天然工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.2942;在暴雨工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.5050;在地震工況下,崩塌隱患體的失穩(wěn)概率為0.6092。⑵對崩塌隱患體影響范圍內(nèi)的承災(zāi)體的易損性進行評價。首先確定崩塌隱患體影響范圍內(nèi)的承災(zāi)體,并對其進行分類,進而對每一類承災(zāi)體的價值損失率進行計算,最終得到全部潛在承災(zāi)體的價值損失總值;根據(jù)上述計算結(jié)果,通過風(fēng)險值的計算公式,得到鳳頭山崩塌隱患體在三種工況下的風(fēng)險值分別為:天然工況下84.2871萬元、暴雨工況下198.7190萬元、地震工況下480.9061萬元。⑶本文通過建立基于模糊綜合評判的治理工程風(fēng)險評價模型,結(jié)合層次分析法確定各項指標(biāo)權(quán)重,進而深入分析治理工程風(fēng)險因素的發(fā)生概率,以及這些因素對治理工程風(fēng)險損失的影響程度。本文以鳳頭山崩塌隱患體為例,對崩塌隱患體以及相應(yīng)的治理工程所存在的風(fēng)險進行分析與評價;其中對于其他單體崩塌及其治理工程風(fēng)險的分析與評估來說,本文采用的技術(shù)方法和研究思路有一定的參考價值、借鑒意義,并為政府決策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the research results of risk assessment of collapse disaster at home and abroad, through field investigation and indoor analysis of the hidden danger body of Fengtou Mountain collapse in Shenmu County, this paper carries on systematic risk evaluation to it. This paper puts forward a risk evaluation method suitable for Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body and its control project. The main research results are as follows: 1. On the basis of field investigation, detailed investigation and indoor experiments, the method of plain projection is adopted. The Monte Carlo method is used to analyze and evaluate the stable state of the hidden collapse body in Fengtou Mountain respectively. The hidden collapse hidden danger body is identified qualitatively by the red plane projection method. Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the probability of instability respectively. The calculated results show that the probability of instability of hidden collapse body is 0.2942 under natural condition, 0.5050 under rainstorm condition, 0.50 under earthquake condition. The failure probability of the hidden collapse body is 0.6092.2 to evaluate the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body. Firstly, the disaster bearing body within the scope of the collapse hidden danger body is determined and classified. Then the value loss rate of each type of disaster bearing body is calculated, and the total value loss value of all potential disaster bearing body is obtained. According to the above calculation results, the calculation formula of risk value is used. The risk values of Fengtou mountain collapse hidden danger body under three conditions are: 842,871 yuan under natural condition, one million nine hundred and eighty-seven thousand and one hundred and ninety yuan under rainstorm condition, four million eight hundred and nine thousand and sixty-one yuan under earthquake condition. This paper establishes the risk evaluation model of governance engineering based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Combined with Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the weight of each index is determined, and then the probability of risk factors in treatment project and the influence of these factors on risk loss of treatment project are analyzed in depth. This paper takes Fengtou Mountain collapse hidden danger body as an example. To analyze and evaluate the risk of the hidden danger of collapse and the corresponding treatment project, and to analyze and evaluate the risk of the other individual collapse and its treatment project, The technical methods and research ideas adopted in this paper have certain reference value, reference significance, and provide scientific basis for government decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P642.21

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