發(fā)布時間：2018-01-06 04:00

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于Copula模型的涇河南岸黃土滑坡危險性分析　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 黃土滑坡 滑坡危險性 Copula函數(shù)模型 危險性分區(qū)

【摘要】：我國黃土地區(qū)滑坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害頻發(fā),開展滑坡危險性評價工作對區(qū)域滑坡的預(yù)測預(yù)報、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)任務(wù)具有極其重要的理論與實(shí)際意義。目前,滑坡危險性分析主要在假設(shè)危險性評價因素間相互獨(dú)立的前提下進(jìn)行。然而在研究滑坡時,發(fā)現(xiàn)危險性評價因素之間存在一定的相關(guān)性,故而用危險性評價因素簡單相乘來計(jì)算滑坡危險性的傳統(tǒng)方法便不適用了。本文在前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,以涇河南岸涇陽地區(qū)黃土滑坡為研究對象,結(jié)合野外調(diào)查資料及室內(nèi)土工試驗(yàn)結(jié)果,在考慮危險性因子間具有相關(guān)性的前提下,基于Copula函數(shù)模型采用半定性—半定量的方法對區(qū)域滑坡危險性進(jìn)行了預(yù)測分析。主要研究成果如下:(1)提出了一套適用于該地區(qū)的滑坡危險性評價體系。依據(jù)滑坡危險性評價原理及原則,根據(jù)研究區(qū)的地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件、已發(fā)生滑坡的分布特征及滑坡發(fā)育的規(guī)模,選取蔣劉—付家村地區(qū)為研究區(qū),以劃分線段的方式進(jìn)行了危險性分區(qū)。其中,對于中型滑坡,選取已發(fā)生的滑坡平均后壁寬度350m作為分段長度;小型滑坡其分段長度為140m。最后,通過分析實(shí)地調(diào)查情況確定影響范圍。(2)量化和確定危險性評價指標(biāo)�；谝巴庹{(diào)查資料,根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式計(jì)算出滑坡規(guī)模指標(biāo)(M);通過滑坡發(fā)生的時間分析,利用泊松模型確定滑坡發(fā)生的頻率(T);利用GEO-SLPOE軟件計(jì)算了邊坡的穩(wěn)定系數(shù),結(jié)合穩(wěn)定系數(shù)確定地形地貌、水文條件、土地利用及滑坡歷史情況對易發(fā)性(S)的影響程度,運(yùn)用打分法計(jì)算易發(fā)值。(3)建立了滑坡危險性計(jì)算模型。分析了滑坡規(guī)模、頻率、易發(fā)性的相關(guān)性,建立了二元Copula函數(shù)模型作為邊緣分布及聯(lián)合分布的連接函數(shù),從而確定了考慮危險性因素具有相關(guān)性的滑坡危險性評價數(shù)學(xué)模型。(4)計(jì)算了研究區(qū)滑坡危險性并繪制了危險性分區(qū)圖。通過現(xiàn)有滑坡穩(wěn)定性和滑坡變形記錄資料,考慮人類工程活動、潛在滑動類型、滑移距離和影響范圍對邊坡的影響,根據(jù)滑坡危險性計(jì)算結(jié)果,將蔣劉—付家村地區(qū)劃分為低危險區(qū)、中危險區(qū)、高危險區(qū)與極高危險區(qū),并繪制了危險性分區(qū)圖。
[Abstract]:Landslide geological disasters in Loess Area in China to carry out frequent landslide hazard assessment of regional landslide prediction, has extremely important theoretical and practical significance for disaster prevention and mitigation tasks. At present, a prerequisite for risk analysis of landslide hazard assessment on the assumption that the main factors independent of each other. However, in the study of landslide, we found that there are some the correlation between risk assessment and risk evaluation factors, using traditional methods to calculate the multiplication factor of landslide danger will not apply. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, in the Loess Area Jinghe South Jingyang landslide as the research object, combined with field survey and indoor soil test results, considering the correlation has the risk factors under the Copula model by using the method of semi qualitative semi quantitative to regional landslide hazard forecast based on Analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) put forward a set of suitable for landslide hazard assessment system in the area. On the basis of landslide hazard assessment principle and principle, according to the geological conditions, the distribution characteristics of the landslide has occurred and the scale of landslides, Jiang Liu - Fu Jia Cun selected as the study area to divide the line, the way of risk zoning. Among them, the landslides, landslides have occurred after the selection of the average wall width of 350m as the length of the section length; small landslide is 140m. finally, through the analysis of investigation situation determine the impact range. (2) to quantify and determine the risk assessment index of field investigation. Based on the data, calculate the landslide scale index according to the empirical formula (M); the occurrence time of a landslide analysis, determine the frequency of the occurrence of landslide by using Poisson model (T); the slope stability is calculated by using GEO-SLPOE software Fixed coefficient, determine the topography, combined with the stability coefficient of hydrological conditions, land use and history of landslide susceptibility (S) influence, calculate the prone value using the scoring method. (3) established the calculation model of landslide hazard analysis. The landslide scale, frequency, correlation of susceptibility, established two yuan Copula function model as the link function of marginal distribution and joint distribution, so as to determine the landslide risk evaluation mathematical model considering the risk factors associated with. (4) to calculate the landslide risk research area and draw the risk zoning map. The deformation records existing landslide and landslide, considering human engineering activities and the potential sliding type, impact sliding distance and range of influence on the slope. According to the calculation result of landslide hazard, the Liu Jiang - Fu Jia Cun region is divided into low risk areas, medium risk area, high risk and extremely high risk area Of these, and draw the risk zoning map.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P642.22

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