【摘要】：風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測對風(fēng)電場運(yùn)行和電網(wǎng)調(diào)度決策具有重要影響。基于風(fēng)電場的功率特性曲線,提出了一種風(fēng)電預(yù)測誤差分布的估計(jì)方法。首先根據(jù)歷史運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)對風(fēng)電場的功率特性曲線進(jìn)行擬合;然后按照風(fēng)電場的切入風(fēng)速和額定風(fēng)速將歷史實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù)劃分為3部分,并利用改進(jìn)后的廣義誤差分布等模型提取每一部分風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測誤差的概率密度特性,根據(jù)其數(shù)值特征,設(shè)定相應(yīng)的風(fēng)電功率修正方法和預(yù)測誤差分布的估計(jì)方法;最后按照待測日預(yù)測風(fēng)速的大小選擇對應(yīng)的修正方法補(bǔ)償所預(yù)測的功率,并估計(jì)預(yù)測誤差的分布范圍。結(jié)合中國北方某風(fēng)電場的實(shí)際運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了仿真算例分析,驗(yàn)證了所提方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Wind power prediction has an important influence on wind farm operation and power grid dispatching decision. Based on the power characteristic curve of wind farm, an estimation method of wind power prediction error distribution is proposed. Firstly, the power characteristic curve of wind farm is fitted according to the historical operation data, and then the historical measured data are divided into three parts according to the cut wind speed and rated wind speed of wind farm, and the probability density characteristics of wind power prediction error of each part are extracted by using the improved generalized error distribution model, and the corresponding wind power correction method and prediction error distribution estimation method are set according to its numerical characteristics. Finally, according to the magnitude of the predicted wind speed on the measured day, the corresponding correction method is selected to compensate the predicted power, and the distribution range of the prediction error is estimated. Based on the actual operation data of a wind farm in northern China, a simulation example is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
【作者單位】： 電力系統(tǒng)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(清華大學(xué)電機(jī)系);國網(wǎng)冀北電力有限公司;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51677099) 國家電網(wǎng)公司項(xiàng)目(新能源接入±500 kV柔性直流電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行適應(yīng)性研究)~~
【分類號】：TM614

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