發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-18 21:21

【摘要】：為解決現(xiàn)有輸變電設(shè)備檢修決策很大程度依賴于決策人員經(jīng)驗(yàn)的問題,應(yīng)用Markov決策過程為檢修決策提供定量、具體的決策依據(jù)。首先通過Markov過程求解設(shè)備的狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率;然后運(yùn)用策略迭代法對(duì)模型最優(yōu)決策進(jìn)行求解;最后將數(shù)據(jù)代入檢修決策模型中,改變故障損失得到?jīng)Q策結(jié)果的變化。比較決策變化對(duì)應(yīng)的設(shè)備故障損失和設(shè)備穩(wěn)態(tài)概率可得知:所建立的基于狀態(tài)的檢修(CBM)模型適用于安裝了在線監(jiān)測(cè)裝置的設(shè)備,而基于檢測(cè)的檢修(IBM)模型適用于無(wú)在線監(jiān)測(cè)裝置的設(shè)備;最優(yōu)決策從維修成本最小的決策過渡到最后每次決策時(shí)都選擇大修,整個(gè)變化過程證明了應(yīng)用Markov決策可以折中維修成本和故障損失得到經(jīng)濟(jì)最優(yōu)決策。研究結(jié)果可為檢修決策人員提供定量的檢修計(jì)劃。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that the maintenance decision of power transmission and transformation equipment depends on the experience of decision makers to a great extent, the Markov decision process is applied to provide quantitative and concrete decision basis for maintenance decision. Firstly, the state transition probability of the equipment is solved by Markov process, and then the optimal decision of the model is solved by using the strategy iterative method. Finally, the data is replaced into the maintenance decision model, and the fault loss is changed to get the change of the decision result. By comparing the equipment fault loss corresponding to the decision change and the steady state probability of the equipment, it can be seen that the established state-based maintenance (CBM) model is suitable for the equipment with on-line monitoring device, while the inspection-based maintenance (IBM) model is suitable for the equipment without on-line monitoring device. The optimal decision is transitioned from the decision with the minimum maintenance cost to the overhaul at the last decision. The whole change process proves that the economic optimal decision can be obtained by using Markov decision to compromise the maintenance cost and fault loss. The research results can provide quantitative maintenance plan for maintenance decision makers.
【作者單位】： 上海交通大學(xué)電氣工程系;國(guó)網(wǎng)山東省電力公司電力科學(xué)研究院;國(guó)網(wǎng)北京電力科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(51477100) 中國(guó)博士后基金(2015M581614) 國(guó)家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(863計(jì)劃)(2015AA050204) 國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司科技項(xiàng)目(520626140020)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM507;TM73

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