【摘要】：風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)組根據(jù)歷史氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算確定的多年一遇風(fēng)速進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)與選型,若氣候模式在其壽命期間發(fā)生改變,風(fēng)速極值分布可能出現(xiàn)明顯變化,將對(duì)風(fēng)力機(jī)的安全性造成突出影響。為此,選用我國(guó)風(fēng)電開發(fā)熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域5處氣象站點(diǎn)近40 a氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),將其分為前后2段(1973—1992和1993—2012),利用基于廣義Pareto分布的跨閾法分別計(jì)算了多年一遇極值風(fēng)速。分析了長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尺度下氣候變化所致多年一遇極值風(fēng)速的地域性變化規(guī)律及其對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)組安全性的影響。通過(guò)前后時(shí)段和不同地域多年一遇極值風(fēng)速的對(duì)比,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)所調(diào)研內(nèi)蒙和山東站點(diǎn)50 a一遇和1 a一遇最大風(fēng)速均呈下降趨勢(shì),長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尺度上極值風(fēng)速的變化對(duì)風(fēng)力機(jī)安全性有正面影響,而華中地區(qū)站點(diǎn)基本持平,長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尺度上極值風(fēng)速的變化對(duì)風(fēng)力機(jī)安全性無(wú)明顯影響。
[Abstract]:The wind turbine generator set is designed and selected according to the historical meteorological observation data. If the climate model changes during its service life, the wind speed extreme value distribution may change significantly, which will have a prominent effect on the safety of the wind turbine. For this reason, the meteorological observation data of the meteorological station at 5 meteorological station in the hot spot of wind power development in China is selected to be divided into two sections (1973,1992 and 1993-2012), and the extreme wind speed for many years is calculated by the cross-threshold method based on the generalized Pareto distribution, respectively. The regional variation of the annual extreme wind speed and its influence on the safety of the wind-driven generator set under the long time scale are analyzed. Through the comparison of the extreme wind speed in the front and back period and the multi-year extreme wind speed in different regions, it is found that the maximum wind speed in the first and the second once-in-one and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year and once-in-one-year maximum wind speed in the investigated Inner Mongolia and Shandong have a downward trend, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has a positive effect on In central China, the site is basically flat, and the change of the extreme wind speed on the long time scale has no obvious influence on the safety of the wind turbine.
【作者單位】： 長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)智能電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行與控制湖南省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中核核電運(yùn)行管理有限公司;華中科技大學(xué)強(qiáng)電磁工程與新技術(shù)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;南瑞集團(tuán)公司(北京);
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71331001;71420107027;91547113) 湖南省科技計(jì)劃(2016WK2015;2016WK2016) 湖南省教育廳科研項(xiàng)目(14K002)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM315;TM614

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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