發(fā)布時間：2019-04-09 14:14

【摘要】：由《中長期鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃》可知,高速鐵路作為重大的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施與重大民生工程是今后國家工程建設(shè)的重點,牽引變電所是高速鐵路供電系統(tǒng)電能轉(zhuǎn)換控制的關(guān)鍵,即承擔(dān)著外部電力系統(tǒng)的輸送來的電能,同時向接觸網(wǎng)穩(wěn)定供電,對其供電的可靠性以及風(fēng)險隱患進行研究顯得尤為重要。同時,高鐵牽引變電所的可靠運行也是高鐵安全運營的保障,一旦高鐵牽引變電所發(fā)生供電故障,那么將引起列車晚點甚至停運、大量旅客滯留,給社會造成巨大的經(jīng)濟損失。高鐵牽引變電所具有可修復(fù)性,冗余性等一些動態(tài)特性,傳統(tǒng)的可靠性研究方法大多是基于靜態(tài)的研究,也沒有考慮可修復(fù)特性;針對以上問題,在可靠性研究方面本文采用FMEA(Failure Mode And Effects Analysis,故障模式后果分析)與DFTA(Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis,動態(tài)故障樹分析)兩種方法共同進行定性與定量分析。首先,掌握高鐵變電所的結(jié)構(gòu)特點、電氣主接線形式以及所內(nèi)的電氣設(shè)備,根據(jù)現(xiàn)場實際運行情況以及參考資料對各個一次設(shè)備的故障模式進行細(xì)致分類,通過故障模式找出與之相應(yīng)的故障原因、故障后果及解決方案,并建立FMEA表。其次,以FMEA表中一次設(shè)備故障作為高鐵牽引變電所DFTA模型的底事件,并結(jié)合DFTA相關(guān)方法特點尋找獨立的動態(tài)子樹與靜態(tài)子樹模塊,結(jié)合已知數(shù)據(jù)計算可靠性相應(yīng)指標(biāo)如可用度,首次失效前平均工作時間;最后,對計算結(jié)果進行分析,找出所內(nèi)存在的薄弱電氣一次設(shè)備。在風(fēng)險評估研究方面,以風(fēng)險評估的原理為基礎(chǔ),綜合考慮人員、環(huán)境、管理、設(shè)備四大影響因素,構(gòu)建高鐵牽引變電風(fēng)險評估層次模型;運用模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論,提出改進模糊層次分析法與熵權(quán)法分別對系統(tǒng)進行主客觀的賦權(quán)計算,并解得最終的綜合權(quán)重向量。改用評分機制來替代傳統(tǒng)模糊評判中的最大隸屬度原則,并確定系統(tǒng)的最終得分與風(fēng)險等級。改進模糊綜合評判在賦權(quán)計算上將傳統(tǒng)的1-9標(biāo)度語言改為3標(biāo)度語言,簡化計算難度,評分機制克服最大隸屬度原則的一些缺點,相比于傳統(tǒng)最大隸屬度原則更為科學(xué),客觀地反映高鐵牽引變電所的風(fēng)險水平。通過算例結(jié)果表明,可靠性分析與風(fēng)險評估研究所采用的方法簡單、有效,為工程實際應(yīng)用奠定良好的應(yīng)用理論基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:According to the medium-and long-term Railway Network Planning, high-speed railway as a major infrastructure and major people's livelihood project will be the focus of the national construction in the future, and traction substation is the key to the power conversion control of the high-speed railway power supply system. That is to say, it is very important to study the reliability and hidden danger of electric power supply, which is responsible for the transmission of electric energy from the external power system and the stable power supply to the catenary at the same time. At the same time, the reliable operation of the high-speed railway traction substation is also the guarantee of the high-speed railway safe operation. Once the power supply failure of the high-speed rail traction substation occurs, the train will be delayed or even stopped, and a large number of passengers will be stranded, which will cause huge economic losses to the society. High-speed railway traction substation has some dynamic characteristics such as repairable redundancy and so on. Most of the traditional reliability research methods are based on static research and do not consider the repairable characteristics. In order to solve the above problems, both qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out by using FMEA (Failure Mode And Effects Analysis, (failure Mode consequence Analysis) and DFTA (Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis, (dynamic Fault Tree Analysis) methods in reliability research. First of all, master the structural characteristics of the high-speed transformer substation, the main electrical wiring form and the electrical equipment, according to the actual operation of the site and reference materials for each primary equipment fault mode is carefully classified. Through the fault mode to find out the corresponding fault causes, fault consequences and solutions, and set up the FMEA table. Secondly, the primary equipment failure in the FMEA table is taken as the bottom event of the DFTA model of the high-speed railway traction substation, and the independent dynamic subtree and static subtree module are found according to the characteristics of the DFTA-related methods, and the reliability indexes such as availability are calculated according to the known data. Average working time before the first failure; Finally, the calculation results are analyzed to find out the weak electrical primary equipment. In the aspect of risk assessment research, based on the principle of risk assessment, the risk assessment hierarchy model of high-speed railway traction and substation is constructed, considering the four major influencing factors of personnel, environment, management and equipment. Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method are proposed to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the system respectively, and the final synthetic weight vectors are obtained. The principle of maximum membership degree in traditional fuzzy evaluation is replaced by the scoring mechanism, and the final score and risk grade of the system are determined. To improve fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the traditional 1 ~ 9 scale language is changed into three scale language in weighted calculation. The difficulty of calculation is simplified and the scoring mechanism overcomes some shortcomings of the maximum membership principle, which is more scientific than the traditional maximum degree of membership principle. Objectively reflect the risk level of high-speed railway traction substation. The results of an example show that the method used in the study of reliability analysis and risk assessment is simple and effective, which lays a good theoretical foundation for the practical application of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U224

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