【摘要】：售電量是電網(wǎng)企業(yè)重要的經(jīng)濟考核指標,月度售電量預(yù)測工作是電網(wǎng)企業(yè)營銷部門一項重要的日常工作,準確的進行月度售電量預(yù)測可以為電網(wǎng)企業(yè)提供營銷決策支持,對制定增供擴銷計劃、開展電能替代、實施有序用電方案、提升客戶服務(wù)品質(zhì)等具有重要意義。目前各電網(wǎng)企業(yè)月度售電量預(yù)測多采用對比分析、結(jié)構(gòu)分析、回歸分析、神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)等方法。這些方法可在一定程度上對售電量進行預(yù)測,但對國家電網(wǎng)公司整體售電量預(yù)測精度并不是很理想,其主要原因是沒有考慮國家電網(wǎng)公司各地區(qū)售電量曲線的不同特征,只利用一種預(yù)測算法對多地區(qū)的售電量進行預(yù)測,這樣必然會導(dǎo)致預(yù)測精度不高。為解決上述問題,本文提出了兩種方法。一種是基于歷史曲線的售電量預(yù)測方法。根據(jù)國家電網(wǎng)公司及下屬27家省(市)公司售電量曲線在時域和頻域下的特征,對27家省(市)公司進行聚類。對不同類別的省(市)公司,根據(jù)售電量曲線特征與預(yù)測算法(SVM回歸、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、ARIMA等)的適配性,選擇相應(yīng)的預(yù)測方法,對同一類別內(nèi)的省(市)公司采用同一種預(yù)測算法。在基于歷史曲線的售電量預(yù)測的基礎(chǔ)上,本文將天氣、經(jīng)濟、節(jié)假日和社會事件等影響因素納入考慮,建立基于SVM回歸的售電量預(yù)測修正模型,根據(jù)影響因素的月度售電量預(yù)測修正模型,進一步提高預(yù)測精度。另一種方法是考慮春節(jié)因素的售電量調(diào)整方法,該方法首先利用歷史年第一季度每月售電量占季度比重和第一季度每月1日距離當(dāng)年春節(jié)的天數(shù)建立函數(shù)關(guān)系,天數(shù)為輸入,占季度比為輸出,利用得到的一元函數(shù)預(yù)測1、2、3月份售電量占季度比,進而根據(jù)預(yù)測的占季度比及調(diào)整前售電量預(yù)測值得到基于春節(jié)因素調(diào)整后1、2、3月份預(yù)測值。利用本文的預(yù)測方法,以國家電網(wǎng)公司2010年至2014年的售電量數(shù)據(jù)作為歷史數(shù)據(jù),對國家電網(wǎng)公司2015年每月的售電量進行預(yù)測,然后和實際的2015年售電量比較,預(yù)測平均誤差為1.78%,結(jié)果表明,本文提出的售電量預(yù)測方法可靠,有效,且精度較高。
[Abstract]:Electricity sales is an important economic assessment index for power grid enterprises. Monthly electricity sales forecasting is an important daily work of power grid enterprise marketing department. Accurate monthly electricity sales prediction can provide marketing decision support for power grid enterprises. It is of great significance to make the plan of increasing supply and expanding sales, to carry out electric energy substitution, to carry out orderly power consumption scheme, and to improve the quality of customer service. At present, the monthly electricity sales forecast of power grid enterprises mostly adopts the methods of comparative analysis, structure analysis, regression analysis, neural network and so on. These methods can be used to predict the electricity sales to a certain extent, but the accuracy of the overall electricity sales prediction of the State Grid Company is not very good. The main reason is that the different characteristics of the electricity sales curves in the various regions of the State Grid Company are not considered. Only one prediction algorithm is used to predict the electricity sales in many areas, which will inevitably lead to the low accuracy of the prediction. In order to solve the above problems, two methods are proposed in this paper. One is the forecasting method of electricity sales based on historical curve. According to the characteristics of the electricity sales curve of the State Grid Company and 27 provincial (municipal) companies in the time domain and the frequency domain, 27 provincial (municipal) companies were clustered. According to the characteristics of the sales curve and the adaptability of the prediction algorithm (SVM regression, BP neural network, ARIMA etc.), the corresponding forecasting methods are selected for different kinds of provincial (municipal) companies. The same prediction algorithm is used for provincial (municipal) companies in the same category. On the basis of forecasting electricity sales based on historical curve, this paper takes weather, economy, holidays and social events into account, and establishes a revised model of electricity sales forecasting based on SVM regression. The forecast accuracy is further improved according to the monthly electricity sales forecast correction model based on the influencing factors. Another method is to take into account the factors of the Spring Festival to adjust electricity sales. Firstly, the method uses the proportion of electricity sales per month in the first quarter of a historical year and the number of days between the first quarter and the Spring Festival in the first quarter to establish a functional relationship. The number of days is input. The ratio of quarter to quarter is output, and the one-variable function is used to forecast the quarterly ratio of electricity sales in March, and then according to the predicted quarterly ratio and the forecast value of electricity sales before adjustment, the forecast value for March is based on the adjustment of Spring Festival factor. Using the forecasting method of this paper, taking the electricity sales data of State Grid Company from 2010 to 2014 as historical data, this paper forecasts the monthly electricity sales of State Grid Company in 2015, and then compares with the actual electricity sales in 2015. The average error of prediction is 1.78. The results show that the method proposed in this paper is reliable, effective and accurate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM715

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