【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速發(fā)展,人口迅速增長,能源消費量與需求量與日俱增,能源供需矛盾日益突出;同時,化石能源的大量消耗也帶來了嚴重的環(huán)境污染問題,制約了我國社會、經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。當前,具有清潔、友好、低碳、節(jié)能等優(yōu)點的可再生能源成為了世界關(guān)注的焦點。但是我國可再生能源發(fā)展仍存在著規(guī)劃不合理、開發(fā)利用不足以及消費比重低等問題。同時,能源系統(tǒng)中存在著大量的復雜性因素,如能源需求的動態(tài)變化、能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和未來能源政策的不確定性等,給能源系統(tǒng)管理帶來了極大的挑戰(zhàn)。因此,開展耦合可再生能源消納的能源系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化與管理研究,對于區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)變能源發(fā)展模式,提高可再生能源發(fā)電比重,優(yōu)化能源資源配置以及改善環(huán)境質(zhì)量將具有重要的意義。本文在充分辨識區(qū)域能源系統(tǒng)特征及其不確定性、復雜性的基礎(chǔ)上,旨在推進可再生能源發(fā)展和優(yōu)化能源系統(tǒng)管理,通過耦合兩階段隨機規(guī)劃、隨機魯棒規(guī)劃、模糊規(guī)劃和區(qū)間規(guī)劃等不確定性優(yōu)化方法,構(gòu)建多個耦合可再生能源消納的不確定性區(qū)域能源綜合調(diào)控模型,反映系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟、環(huán)境目標和風險之間的權(quán)衡關(guān)系,并以山東省和唐山市為例,為區(qū)域能源環(huán)境系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃與管理提供技術(shù)和決策支持。具體研究內(nèi)容包括:(1)針對可再生能源輸出功率的不確定性問題,綜合區(qū)間規(guī)劃、兩階段隨機規(guī)劃和模糊可信度規(guī)劃方法,考慮可再生能源發(fā)電出力預測誤差給系統(tǒng)帶來的風險,構(gòu)建基于區(qū)間兩階段隨機模糊可信度規(guī)劃模型,并應用于區(qū)域微網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)管理,該模型可以將模糊可信度約束進行清晰等價類轉(zhuǎn)化;(2)針對可再生能源發(fā)電比重低的問題,基于兩階段隨機規(guī)劃、隨機魯棒規(guī)劃和區(qū)間規(guī)劃方法,建立區(qū)間兩階段隨機魯棒-山東省電力規(guī)劃模型,通過設置不同可再生能源發(fā)展目標,產(chǎn)出一系列電力生產(chǎn)、外購電力、電力設施擴容等決策方案;(3)針對激勵政策對新能源發(fā)展的影響問題,將電價補貼政策引入到電力系統(tǒng)模型中,構(gòu)建基于區(qū)間兩階段隨機魯棒混合整數(shù)規(guī)劃的唐山市電力系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化模型,分析不同上網(wǎng)電價補貼情景下的電力系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化方案,有助于決策者在考慮利益平衡的情形下制定科學合理的發(fā)展政策;(4)針對能源環(huán)境系統(tǒng)日益突出的問題,在全面分析唐山市能源系統(tǒng)特征的基礎(chǔ)上,統(tǒng)籌兼顧可再生能源發(fā)展,建立基于區(qū)間模糊混合整數(shù)規(guī)劃的唐山市能源系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化與管理模型,獲得能源資源配置、轉(zhuǎn)換技術(shù)擴容、大氣污染減排等方案。該模型能夠幫助決策者權(quán)衡系統(tǒng)成本、能源供應安全和環(huán)境要求之間的互動關(guān)系,可用于指導含有可再生能源的區(qū)域能源系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化管理。總體來看,本文提出的不確定性優(yōu)化方法能夠有效地表征復合能源系統(tǒng)中存在的復雜性和不確定性,從不同角度構(gòu)建的耦合可再生能源消納的能源系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃模型,能夠為復雜條件下能源系統(tǒng)管理提供科學決策方案和前瞻性建議,有助于促進可再生能源發(fā)展,推動能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級以及實現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and high-speed development of economy, the rapid growth of population, the increasing consumption and demand of energy, the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent; at the same time, the large consumption of fossil energy has also brought serious environmental pollution problems, restricting the sustainable development of our society, economy and environment. However, there are still some problems in the development of renewable energy in China, such as unreasonable planning, inadequate development and utilization, and low proportion of consumption. Therefore, the research on Optimization and management of energy system coupled with renewable energy consumption will be of great significance for regional transformation of energy development mode, increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation, optimizing energy resource allocation and improving environmental quality. Based on the characteristics, uncertainties and complexity of regional energy system, this paper aims to promote the development of renewable energy and optimize the management of energy system. By coupling two-stage stochastic programming, stochastic robust programming, fuzzy programming and interval programming, uncertain regional energy for multiple coupled renewable energy consumption is constructed. Source integrated regulation model reflects the trade-off among system economy, environmental objectives and risks. Taking Shandong Province and Tangshan City as examples, it provides technical and decision support for regional energy and environment system planning and management. Stochastic programming and fuzzy credibility programming method, considering the risk of the renewable energy generation output forecasting error to the system, a two-stage stochastic fuzzy credibility programming model based on interval is constructed and applied to the management of regional micro-grid system, which can transform the fuzzy credibility constraints into clear equivalence classes; (2) for renewable energy Based on two-stage stochastic programming, stochastic robust programming and interval programming method, a two-stage stochastic robust-Shandong power planning model is established. By setting different renewable energy development goals, a series of decision-making schemes, such as power production, power outsourcing and power facilities expansion, are produced. (3) Aiming at incentive policies. The influence of policy on the development of new energy sources is discussed. The electricity price subsidy policy is introduced into the power system model. The Tangshan power system optimization model based on interval two-stage stochastic robust mixed integer programming is constructed. The power system optimization schemes under different electricity price subsidy scenarios are analyzed. It is helpful for decision makers to consider the situation of balance of interests. (4) Aiming at the increasingly prominent problems of energy and environment system, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of energy system in Tangshan City, taking into account the development of renewable energy as a whole, the optimization and management model of energy system in Tangshan City based on interval fuzzy mixed integer programming is established to obtain the allocation of energy resources and transform technology. The model can help decision makers to balance the interaction among system cost, energy supply security and environmental requirements, and can be used to guide the optimal management of regional energy systems with renewable energy sources. Complexity and uncertainty exist in the system. The energy system planning model of coupling renewable energy consumption from different perspectives can provide scientific decision-making scheme and forward-looking suggestions for energy system management under complex conditions. It is helpful to promote the development of renewable energy, promote the optimization and upgrading of energy structure and realize the energy system. Sustainable development.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TK01;TM73

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本文編號：2199877