風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)條件下的火電廠選址與燃煤供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-14 19:31
【摘要】：習(xí)近平主席于2016年APEC峰會時曾表示,中國準備在公用事業(yè)進行供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革。電力行業(yè)存在盈利能力差、產(chǎn)能過剩的隱憂,亟待政策引導(dǎo)統(tǒng)籌化解。2017年,電力企業(yè)供給側(cè)改革將進入實質(zhì)性階段。如何去產(chǎn)能、去庫存、去杠桿、降成本、補短板成為結(jié)構(gòu)性供給側(cè)改革的重點任務(wù)。受電力供給寬松、煤價高企等多重因素影響,占電力供應(yīng)70%左右的煤電正處于盈利能力的歷史低點。小型落后火電產(chǎn)能過剩、亟待改善的盈利能力與京津冀、華東、華南地區(qū)嚴苛的環(huán)境保護指標,無不對煤電企業(yè)利潤與燃煤物流成本產(chǎn)生著影響。傳統(tǒng)方式將煤炭運抵東部、南部電力負荷區(qū)發(fā)電的形式,電煤供應(yīng)鏈復(fù)雜,極易造成供應(yīng)鏈斷裂,煤炭輸送成本過高,煤電企業(yè)盈利能力大幅下降�！拔麟姈|送”戰(zhàn)略工程實施以來,我國能源開發(fā)重心不斷西移、北移,根據(jù)國家電網(wǎng)“十三五”規(guī)劃,從我國的西北部能源基地往東部負荷中心輸送的電量將會越來越大、距離也會越來越遠。于電煤主產(chǎn)區(qū)建廠發(fā)電外送,可有效降低煤炭運輸費用,在提高煤電盈利能力的同時,改善負荷區(qū)煤電產(chǎn)能過剩與環(huán)境污染問題。然而,隨著風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)比例的不斷提高,風(fēng)電的動態(tài)性和隨機性,對火電廠布局與燃煤供應(yīng)鏈的優(yōu)化產(chǎn)生了越來越大的影響,對解決供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化問題而言是一種新的挑戰(zhàn)。在本文中,首先對火電廠燃煤供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化的發(fā)展歷史與研究現(xiàn)狀進行了總結(jié),闡述在電力行業(yè)供給側(cè)架構(gòu)性改革與“西電東送”背景下電煤供應(yīng)鏈發(fā)生的變化,結(jié)合風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)分析對傳統(tǒng)火電廠燃煤供應(yīng)鏈的影響。針對風(fēng)電的隨機波動性,以符合系統(tǒng)運行特點的技術(shù)條件為約束,分析風(fēng)電場與火電廠的綜合布局對燃煤供應(yīng)鏈的影響,以利益最大化為原則建立燃煤供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化的隨機規(guī)劃模型,并對模型的有效性進行評價。之后,提出的量子離散粒子群一二次規(guī)劃方法是在貪心變異策略的基礎(chǔ)上改進而來的,使用量子離散粒子群算法與二次規(guī)劃法求解含風(fēng)電場的火電廠最優(yōu)燃煤庫存量�；谪澬淖儺惒呗詫α孔与x散粒子群算法進行改進,比傳統(tǒng)算法相更易于得到最優(yōu)解。最后,本文基于燃煤供應(yīng)鏈經(jīng)濟化為原則以含風(fēng)電場的的火電廠布局與火電廠燃煤庫存優(yōu)化流程,求解了火電廠在風(fēng)電場出力不確定的情況下燃煤庫存量與火電廠、風(fēng)電場布局,結(jié)果驗證了本文建模與算法的可行性和有效性,從而確保了燃煤供應(yīng)鏈的經(jīng)濟性,達到提高煤電盈利能力的目的。
[Abstract]:At the 2016 APEC summit, President Xi Jinping said China was prepared to undertake supply-side structural reforms in public utilities. The power industry has the potential of poor profitability and overcapacity, which needs to be solved as a whole through policy guidance. In 2017, the supply-side reform of electric power enterprises will enter a substantial stage. How to reduce production capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction and repair of structural supply-side reform has become the key task of structural supply-side reform. Coal, which accounts for about 70 percent of the electricity supply, is at an all-time low of profitability, driven by multiple factors such as easy electricity supply and high coal prices. The overcapacity of small and backward thermal power, the urgent need to improve profitability and the harsh environmental protection indicators in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, East China and South China all have an impact on the profits of coal and power enterprises and the cost of coal combustion logistics. The traditional way of transporting coal to the east and south of the power load area is the form of power generation. The supply chain of electric coal is complex, which can easily lead to the breakage of the supply chain, the high cost of coal transportation, and the decline of profit ability of coal power enterprises. Since the implementation of the "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategic project, the focus of energy development in China has been moving westward and northward. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan of the State Grid, the amount of electricity transferred from the northwest energy base of our country to the eastern load center will be increasing. The distance will grow farther and further. Building power plants in the main coal-producing areas can effectively reduce the cost of coal transportation, improve the profitability of coal power, and improve the problems of coal power overcapacity and environmental pollution in the load area at the same time. However, with the increasing proportion of wind power connected to the grid, the dynamic and randomness of wind power has more and more influence on the layout of thermal power plant and the optimization of coal-fired supply chain, which is a new challenge to solve the problem of supply chain optimization. In this paper, firstly, the development history and research status of coal-fired supply chain optimization in thermal power plants are summarized, and the changes of coal-fired supply chain under the background of supply-side structural reform and "power transmission from west to east" in power industry are expounded. Combined with wind power grid analysis of the traditional coal-fired power supply chain. In view of the random fluctuation of wind power, the influence of the comprehensive layout of wind farm and thermal power plant on the coal-fired supply chain is analyzed under the constraints of the technical conditions according to the characteristics of the system operation. Based on the principle of maximum benefit, the stochastic programming model of coal-fired supply chain optimization is established, and the effectiveness of the model is evaluated. After that, the quantum discrete particle swarm optimization (QDPSO) is improved on the basis of greedy mutation strategy. Quantum discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (QDPSO) and quadratic programming are used to solve the optimal coal-fired inventory of thermal power plants with wind farms. Quantum discrete particle swarm optimization (QDPSO) is improved based on greedy mutation strategy, which is easier to obtain optimal solution than traditional algorithm. Finally, based on the principle of economization of coal-fired supply chain, based on the layout of coal-fired power plant with wind farm and the optimization process of coal-fired inventory of coal-fired power plant, the coal-fired inventory and thermal power plant in the case of uncertain wind farm output are solved. The result of wind farm layout verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the modeling and algorithm in this paper, thus ensuring the economy of coal supply chain and achieving the purpose of improving the profitability of coal power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;F426.21
本文編號：2183902
[Abstract]:At the 2016 APEC summit, President Xi Jinping said China was prepared to undertake supply-side structural reforms in public utilities. The power industry has the potential of poor profitability and overcapacity, which needs to be solved as a whole through policy guidance. In 2017, the supply-side reform of electric power enterprises will enter a substantial stage. How to reduce production capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction and repair of structural supply-side reform has become the key task of structural supply-side reform. Coal, which accounts for about 70 percent of the electricity supply, is at an all-time low of profitability, driven by multiple factors such as easy electricity supply and high coal prices. The overcapacity of small and backward thermal power, the urgent need to improve profitability and the harsh environmental protection indicators in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, East China and South China all have an impact on the profits of coal and power enterprises and the cost of coal combustion logistics. The traditional way of transporting coal to the east and south of the power load area is the form of power generation. The supply chain of electric coal is complex, which can easily lead to the breakage of the supply chain, the high cost of coal transportation, and the decline of profit ability of coal power enterprises. Since the implementation of the "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategic project, the focus of energy development in China has been moving westward and northward. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan of the State Grid, the amount of electricity transferred from the northwest energy base of our country to the eastern load center will be increasing. The distance will grow farther and further. Building power plants in the main coal-producing areas can effectively reduce the cost of coal transportation, improve the profitability of coal power, and improve the problems of coal power overcapacity and environmental pollution in the load area at the same time. However, with the increasing proportion of wind power connected to the grid, the dynamic and randomness of wind power has more and more influence on the layout of thermal power plant and the optimization of coal-fired supply chain, which is a new challenge to solve the problem of supply chain optimization. In this paper, firstly, the development history and research status of coal-fired supply chain optimization in thermal power plants are summarized, and the changes of coal-fired supply chain under the background of supply-side structural reform and "power transmission from west to east" in power industry are expounded. Combined with wind power grid analysis of the traditional coal-fired power supply chain. In view of the random fluctuation of wind power, the influence of the comprehensive layout of wind farm and thermal power plant on the coal-fired supply chain is analyzed under the constraints of the technical conditions according to the characteristics of the system operation. Based on the principle of maximum benefit, the stochastic programming model of coal-fired supply chain optimization is established, and the effectiveness of the model is evaluated. After that, the quantum discrete particle swarm optimization (QDPSO) is improved on the basis of greedy mutation strategy. Quantum discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (QDPSO) and quadratic programming are used to solve the optimal coal-fired inventory of thermal power plants with wind farms. Quantum discrete particle swarm optimization (QDPSO) is improved based on greedy mutation strategy, which is easier to obtain optimal solution than traditional algorithm. Finally, based on the principle of economization of coal-fired supply chain, based on the layout of coal-fired power plant with wind farm and the optimization process of coal-fired inventory of coal-fired power plant, the coal-fired inventory and thermal power plant in the case of uncertain wind farm output are solved. The result of wind farm layout verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the modeling and algorithm in this paper, thus ensuring the economy of coal supply chain and achieving the purpose of improving the profitability of coal power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;F426.21
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