本文選題：變電站自動化系統(tǒng) + 復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)��； 參考：《東北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：變電站是電力系統(tǒng)的中樞,隨著其智能化程度的提高,變電站自動化系統(tǒng)間的數(shù)據(jù)交互也越發(fā)復(fù)雜。若變電站自動化系統(tǒng)中的節(jié)點因外界擾動而產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險后,這些風(fēng)險可能會對其相鄰或相關(guān)聯(lián)的節(jié)點造成一定程度的影響,進一步擴大風(fēng)險范圍,使得那些原本不具有風(fēng)險的節(jié)點,最終可能會因風(fēng)險的傳播擴散而造成脆弱性改變,這些節(jié)點失效后極易引發(fā)連鎖故障。由于變電站自動化系統(tǒng)可以抽象為由邏輯節(jié)點和邏輯連接組成的網(wǎng)絡(luò),因此應(yīng)用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論研究變電站的風(fēng)險傳播擴散現(xiàn)象和連鎖故障演化機理具有一定的可行性。針對以往風(fēng)險傳播擴散研究中忽略風(fēng)險逐層累積的問題,提出了一種考慮風(fēng)險累積效應(yīng)的風(fēng)險傳播擴散模型來描述節(jié)點的風(fēng)險狀況。該模型通過分析每條風(fēng)險傳播路徑的概率,確定風(fēng)險擴散至其相鄰節(jié)點的先后順序和傳遞的風(fēng)險大小,從而判斷初始節(jié)點受擾動后風(fēng)險的傳播擴散途徑,同時,統(tǒng)計網(wǎng)絡(luò)中各節(jié)點的累積風(fēng)險,預(yù)測最具安全威脅的脆弱點。然后,針對連鎖故障分析中不能根據(jù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)演化調(diào)整節(jié)點負荷容許參數(shù)的問題,建立了一種適用于變電站自動化系統(tǒng)連鎖故障分析的模型。該模型引入接近度概念來衡量節(jié)點的負荷承載量,用于動態(tài)調(diào)整節(jié)點負荷容許參數(shù),同時,針對邏輯節(jié)點在站控層、間隔層和過程層的分布特點,改進網(wǎng)絡(luò)平均有效性能的衡量方法,以更為準確地評估連鎖故障的破壞程度。實驗以T1-1小型變電站為例,依據(jù)IEC 61850標準中邏輯節(jié)點間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,構(gòu)建成復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),然后分析不同風(fēng)險源,確定相應(yīng)的脆弱點,對比不同脆弱點失效后引發(fā)連鎖故障的情況。實驗結(jié)果表明,本文提出的模型對變電站風(fēng)險評估具有一定的有效性和適用性。最后,在變電站三維可視化場景的基礎(chǔ)上,開發(fā)了動態(tài)風(fēng)險評估仿真平臺。平臺集成了風(fēng)險傳播擴散算法和鎖故障分析算法,以滿足管理人員對運行數(shù)據(jù)直觀展現(xiàn)和分析預(yù)測的需求,減少管理成本。
[Abstract]:Substation is the center of power system. With the improvement of its intelligence, the data exchange between substation automation system becomes more and more complicated. If the nodes in the substation automation system are exposed to external disturbances, these risks may have a certain degree of impact on the adjacent or associated nodes, and further expand the risk range. Those nodes that had no risk may eventually change their vulnerability due to the spread of risk, which can easily lead to cascading failures after the failure of these nodes. Because substation automation system can be abstracted as a network composed of logical nodes and logical connections, it is feasible to study the phenomenon of risk propagation and diffusion and the evolution mechanism of cascading faults by using complex network theory. Aiming at the problem that risk accumulation is neglected in previous risk propagation and diffusion studies, a risk propagation and diffusion model considering risk accumulation effect is proposed to describe the risk situation of nodes. By analyzing the probability of each risk propagation path, the model determines the sequence of risk diffusion to its adjacent nodes and the magnitude of the risk transmission, so as to judge the propagation and diffusion path of the risk after the initial node is disturbed, at the same time, The cumulative risk of each node in the network is counted to predict the most vulnerable point of security threat. Then, aiming at the problem that the allowable parameters of node load can not be adjusted according to the network evolution in the cascading fault analysis, a model suitable for the cascading fault analysis of substation automation system is established. In this model, the concept of proximity is introduced to measure the load carrying capacity of nodes, which is used to dynamically adjust the load allowable parameters of nodes. At the same time, the distribution characteristics of logical nodes in the station control layer, interval layer and process layer are analyzed. The method of measuring the average effective performance of the network is improved to evaluate the failure degree of cascading faults more accurately. Taking T1-1 small substation as an example, a complex network is constructed according to the relationship between logical nodes in IEC 61850 standard, and then different risk sources are analyzed, the corresponding vulnerability points are determined, and the cascading faults caused by the failure of different fragile points are compared. The experimental results show that the proposed model is effective and applicable to substation risk assessment. Finally, a dynamic risk assessment simulation platform is developed based on the three-dimensional visualization scene of substation. The platform integrates the risk propagation diffusion algorithm and the lock fault analysis algorithm to meet the needs of managers to display and analyze the operation data intuitively and reduce the management cost.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM63

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