本文選題：電網(wǎng)投資 + 布谷鳥優(yōu)化　； 參考：《華北電力大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力能源是與國計民生息息相關的基礎性能源,伴隨著社會經(jīng)濟的快速增長以及生活水平的大幅提高,電能消費呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長的趨勢,而在供給側(cè)角度,為了實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目標,要求終端能源結構進行優(yōu)化,電力能源是二次能源,具有清潔無污染,高效率的特性,正因為這些特性,在未來的能源消耗中電力能源所占的比例會大幅提高。而電力能源消費的增加必然要求加強電網(wǎng)建設,電網(wǎng)是電力能源消費的載體和基礎途徑,電網(wǎng)的建設發(fā)展必須與電力能源消費增長趨勢保持一致。為了保證電力能源消費的穩(wěn)步提升就必須完善電網(wǎng)建設,電網(wǎng)投資活動對國民經(jīng)濟的提高以及社會的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展具有重要作用。只有科學的電網(wǎng)建設投資決策才能建立最適合電力發(fā)展需要的電網(wǎng)設施,所以電網(wǎng)投資決策是電力能源消費的基礎。為了保證電能消費的穩(wěn)步增長以及電網(wǎng)的安全運行,必須對電網(wǎng)投資的相關理論與方法進行深入研究,分析與其他行業(yè)相比其獨有的特點,建立最科學的電網(wǎng)投資測算體系,從而達到規(guī)范電網(wǎng)企業(yè)投資行為的目的。此外研究投資測算體系對于決策風險的降低、決策水平的提高、投資效益的提升以及企業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力的增強具有重要作用本文主要從社會,經(jīng)濟,環(huán)境,電力市場四個方面分析電網(wǎng)投資的影響因素,在研究閱讀大量文獻的基礎上,梳理各個文獻中所列出的電網(wǎng)投資影響因素,對這些因素進行分析匯總,剔除與現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不相適宜的因素,并根據(jù)現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,政治發(fā)展,電網(wǎng)發(fā)展趨勢加入新的影響因素,最后將所有經(jīng)過初選的影響因素作為本文的初選因素集;確定初選因素集之后就要分析選取關鍵影響因素,從初選因素集中篩選出對電網(wǎng)投資有著重要影響的若干數(shù)據(jù),本文選擇灰色關聯(lián)度方法選擇關鍵影響因素,通過計算初選因素集中每個因素與電網(wǎng)投資的關聯(lián)度,依據(jù)關聯(lián)度大小選擇前六個對電網(wǎng)投資影響最大的因素組成關鍵因素集;然后采用基于布谷鳥算法優(yōu)化的支持向量機的模型測算關鍵影響因素的值。下一步是依次將關鍵因素與投資額結合建立電網(wǎng)投資測算仿真模型,并計算每個模型的誤差值,將誤差最小的仿真模型作為最終電網(wǎng)測算模型。最后將關鍵因素的預測值代入選定的模型中對電網(wǎng)投資額進行測算。通過實際案例仿真研究,證明該方法測算的精準度有很大的提高。本文測算結果的精確性對實際操作的電網(wǎng)投資有一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Power energy is the basic energy which is closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood. With the rapid growth of social economy and the substantial improvement of living standard, the electric energy consumption shows a trend of continuous growth, while on the supply side, In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, the terminal energy structure should be optimized. The power energy is a secondary energy source, which has the characteristics of clean, pollution-free, high efficiency, and because of these characteristics, The share of electric energy in future energy consumption will increase dramatically. The increase of power energy consumption will inevitably require the strengthening of power grid construction. Power grid is the carrier and basic way of power energy consumption. The construction and development of power grid must be consistent with the increasing trend of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady improvement of power energy consumption, it is necessary to perfect the power grid construction. The grid investment plays an important role in the improvement of the national economy and the stable development of the society. Only scientific investment decision of power grid construction can set up the most suitable power grid facilities for the development of electric power, so the investment decision of power grid is the basis of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady growth of electric energy consumption and the safe operation of power grid, it is necessary to deeply study the relevant theories and methods of grid investment, analyze its unique characteristics compared with other industries, and establish the most scientific power grid investment measurement system. In order to achieve the goal of standardizing the investment behavior of power grid enterprises. In addition, the study of investment measurement system plays an important role in the reduction of decision-making risk, the improvement of decision-making level, the improvement of investment benefit and the enhancement of enterprises' ability of sustainable development. This paper mainly focuses on the social, economic and environmental aspects. On the basis of studying and reading a large number of literatures, this paper analyzes the influence factors of power grid investment in four aspects of power market, and analyzes and summarizes these factors. The factors that are not suitable for the development of modern economy are eliminated, and according to the development of modern economy, political development and power grid development, new influencing factors are added. Finally, all the factors that have passed the primary election are taken as the primary factors set in this paper. After determining the primary factor set, it is necessary to analyze and select the key influencing factors. Some data which have important influence on the power grid investment are selected from the primary selection factor concentration. In this paper, the grey correlation degree method is chosen to select the key influencing factors. By calculating the correlation degree between each factor and the power grid investment, the key factor set is composed of the first six factors which have the greatest influence on the power grid investment according to the correlation degree. Then the support vector machine model based on cuckoo algorithm is used to calculate the value of key factors. The next step is to combine the key factors with the investment to establish the simulation model of power network investment and calculate the error value of each model. The simulation model with the minimum error is regarded as the final network calculation model. Finally, the forecast value of key factors is added to the selected model to calculate the power grid investment. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the method is greatly improved. The accuracy of the calculation results in this paper can be used as a reference for the actual operation of power grid investment.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 蔡張花;單立;劉福炎;陳佳;黃海潮;;基于負債率限制的電網(wǎng)企業(yè)投資能力研究[J];價值工程;2015年09期

2 黃勇;肖亮;胡羽;;基于社會網(wǎng)絡分析法的城鎮(zhèn)基礎設施健康評價研究——以重慶萬州城區(qū)電力基礎設施為例[J];中國科學:技術科學;2015年01期

3 吳鴻亮;陳穎;王玲;;電網(wǎng)建設與社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)性評價研究[J];中國電力;2014年11期

4 梅生偉;龔媛;劉鋒;;三代電網(wǎng)演化模型及特性分析[J];中國電機工程學報;2014年07期

5 尚升平;;馬來西亞電力基礎設施現(xiàn)狀及前景展望[J];國際工程與勞務;2013年12期

6 胡柏初;胡剛;胡朝華;青松;李明偉;彭超;;基于灰色預測的電網(wǎng)基建投資測算模型[J];電子科技大學學報;2013年06期

7 崔巍;崔瑩瑩;楊海峰;;電網(wǎng)專項領域投資決策模型[J];電力建設;2013年10期

8 常燕;陳武;趙罡;;電網(wǎng)投資決策定量分析技術與模型——基于動態(tài)規(guī)劃方法的實證預測[J];技術經(jīng)濟;2012年02期

9 曾鳴;田廓;鄢帆;薛松;董軍;;電力市場中考慮靈活性措施的發(fā)電投資決策分析[J];電網(wǎng)技術;2010年11期

10 楊衛(wèi)紅;蔡琦;何永秀;戴愛英;吳良器;;北京電網(wǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)性評價[J];華東電力;2009年10期

相關會議論文 前1條

1 黃云貴;;基于時間序列的電網(wǎng)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模研究[A];2012年云南電力技術論壇論文集[C];2012年

相關碩士學位論文 前2條

1 鄧國軍;基于時間序列分析的電網(wǎng)投資影響因素長期及動態(tài)關系研究[D];浙江大學;2015年

2 魏子杰;基于灰色理論的電網(wǎng)投資測算方法研究及軟件實現(xiàn)[D];電子科技大學;2013年

，

本文編號：1979588