本文選題：電網(wǎng)投資 + 布谷鳥優(yōu)化��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力能源是與國計民生息息相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)性能源,伴隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長以及生活水平的大幅提高,電能消費(fèi)呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長的趨勢,而在供給側(cè)角度,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo),要求終端能源結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,電力能源是二次能源,具有清潔無污染,高效率的特性,正因為這些特性,在未來的能源消耗中電力能源所占的比例會大幅提高。而電力能源消費(fèi)的增加必然要求加強(qiáng)電網(wǎng)建設(shè),電網(wǎng)是電力能源消費(fèi)的載體和基礎(chǔ)途徑,電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)發(fā)展必須與電力能源消費(fèi)增長趨勢保持一致。為了保證電力能源消費(fèi)的穩(wěn)步提升就必須完善電網(wǎng)建設(shè),電網(wǎng)投資活動對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的提高以及社會的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展具有重要作用。只有科學(xué)的電網(wǎng)建設(shè)投資決策才能建立最適合電力發(fā)展需要的電網(wǎng)設(shè)施,所以電網(wǎng)投資決策是電力能源消費(fèi)的基礎(chǔ)。為了保證電能消費(fèi)的穩(wěn)步增長以及電網(wǎng)的安全運(yùn)行,必須對電網(wǎng)投資的相關(guān)理論與方法進(jìn)行深入研究,分析與其他行業(yè)相比其獨(dú)有的特點(diǎn),建立最科學(xué)的電網(wǎng)投資測算體系,從而達(dá)到規(guī)范電網(wǎng)企業(yè)投資行為的目的。此外研究投資測算體系對于決策風(fēng)險的降低、決策水平的提高、投資效益的提升以及企業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力的增強(qiáng)具有重要作用本文主要從社會,經(jīng)濟(jì),環(huán)境,電力市場四個方面分析電網(wǎng)投資的影響因素,在研究閱讀大量文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,梳理各個文獻(xiàn)中所列出的電網(wǎng)投資影響因素,對這些因素進(jìn)行分析匯總,剔除與現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不相適宜的因素,并根據(jù)現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,政治發(fā)展,電網(wǎng)發(fā)展趨勢加入新的影響因素,最后將所有經(jīng)過初選的影響因素作為本文的初選因素集;確定初選因素集之后就要分析選取關(guān)鍵影響因素,從初選因素集中篩選出對電網(wǎng)投資有著重要影響的若干數(shù)據(jù),本文選擇灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法選擇關(guān)鍵影響因素,通過計算初選因素集中每個因素與電網(wǎng)投資的關(guān)聯(lián)度,依據(jù)關(guān)聯(lián)度大小選擇前六個對電網(wǎng)投資影響最大的因素組成關(guān)鍵因素集;然后采用基于布谷鳥算法優(yōu)化的支持向量機(jī)的模型測算關(guān)鍵影響因素的值。下一步是依次將關(guān)鍵因素與投資額結(jié)合建立電網(wǎng)投資測算仿真模型,并計算每個模型的誤差值,將誤差最小的仿真模型作為最終電網(wǎng)測算模型。最后將關(guān)鍵因素的預(yù)測值代入選定的模型中對電網(wǎng)投資額進(jìn)行測算。通過實(shí)際案例仿真研究,證明該方法測算的精準(zhǔn)度有很大的提高。本文測算結(jié)果的精確性對實(shí)際操作的電網(wǎng)投資有一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Power energy is the basic energy which is closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood. With the rapid growth of social economy and the substantial improvement of living standard, the electric energy consumption shows a trend of continuous growth, while on the supply side, In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, the terminal energy structure should be optimized. The power energy is a secondary energy source, which has the characteristics of clean, pollution-free, high efficiency, and because of these characteristics, The share of electric energy in future energy consumption will increase dramatically. The increase of power energy consumption will inevitably require the strengthening of power grid construction. Power grid is the carrier and basic way of power energy consumption. The construction and development of power grid must be consistent with the increasing trend of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady improvement of power energy consumption, it is necessary to perfect the power grid construction. The grid investment plays an important role in the improvement of the national economy and the stable development of the society. Only scientific investment decision of power grid construction can set up the most suitable power grid facilities for the development of electric power, so the investment decision of power grid is the basis of power energy consumption. In order to ensure the steady growth of electric energy consumption and the safe operation of power grid, it is necessary to deeply study the relevant theories and methods of grid investment, analyze its unique characteristics compared with other industries, and establish the most scientific power grid investment measurement system. In order to achieve the goal of standardizing the investment behavior of power grid enterprises. In addition, the study of investment measurement system plays an important role in the reduction of decision-making risk, the improvement of decision-making level, the improvement of investment benefit and the enhancement of enterprises' ability of sustainable development. This paper mainly focuses on the social, economic and environmental aspects. On the basis of studying and reading a large number of literatures, this paper analyzes the influence factors of power grid investment in four aspects of power market, and analyzes and summarizes these factors. The factors that are not suitable for the development of modern economy are eliminated, and according to the development of modern economy, political development and power grid development, new influencing factors are added. Finally, all the factors that have passed the primary election are taken as the primary factors set in this paper. After determining the primary factor set, it is necessary to analyze and select the key influencing factors. Some data which have important influence on the power grid investment are selected from the primary selection factor concentration. In this paper, the grey correlation degree method is chosen to select the key influencing factors. By calculating the correlation degree between each factor and the power grid investment, the key factor set is composed of the first six factors which have the greatest influence on the power grid investment according to the correlation degree. Then the support vector machine model based on cuckoo algorithm is used to calculate the value of key factors. The next step is to combine the key factors with the investment to establish the simulation model of power network investment and calculate the error value of each model. The simulation model with the minimum error is regarded as the final network calculation model. Finally, the forecast value of key factors is added to the selected model to calculate the power grid investment. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the method is greatly improved. The accuracy of the calculation results in this paper can be used as a reference for the actual operation of power grid investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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