本文選題：發(fā)電側(cè) + 用電側(cè)�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持中高速增長(zhǎng),以化石能源為主的能源消耗也隨之快速增加,但由于能源結(jié)構(gòu)單一導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面臨著日益嚴(yán)峻的資源約束和環(huán)境問題,尤其是環(huán)境問題已成為限制經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。雖然中國(guó)政府相繼推出了含有政府補(bǔ)貼的固定上網(wǎng)電價(jià)制度和稅收優(yōu)惠制度等,以促進(jìn)清潔能源消納利用,緩解能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)單一的問題,但能源儲(chǔ)備與需求的逆向分布抑制了中國(guó)清潔能源的規(guī)模化消納。因此,為了激勵(lì)可再生能源發(fā)電上網(wǎng),增加清潔能源的利用程度,需要通過發(fā)電側(cè)電能替代、用戶側(cè)電能替代和兩側(cè)聯(lián)動(dòng)電能替代等措施深入開展電能替代工作。本文以中國(guó)電能替代政策為研究對(duì)象,圍繞電能替代途徑優(yōu)化和綜合效益評(píng)價(jià)展開了相關(guān)的研究,主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:(1)梳理電能替代已有的研究成果,介紹電能替代的基本含義、演變過程和相關(guān)政策,總結(jié)典型發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家電能替代的實(shí)施經(jīng)驗(yàn)啟示,明確電能替代的綜合作用途徑,能夠?yàn)橹袊?guó)電能替代政策的深入具體化實(shí)施提供重要的參考依據(jù),對(duì)于發(fā)電側(cè)、用戶側(cè)和兩側(cè)聯(lián)動(dòng)的電動(dòng)替代優(yōu)化機(jī)制的建立有著重要的決策價(jià)值,為論文開展電能替代途徑優(yōu)化及綜合效益評(píng)估提供了全面的理論依據(jù)。(2)建立了發(fā)電側(cè)參與電能替代潛力動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)及優(yōu)化模型。從空間、潛力和途徑三個(gè)方面分析了發(fā)電側(cè)電能替代的潛力及空間,針對(duì)區(qū)域內(nèi)發(fā)電側(cè)電能替代,引入魯棒隨機(jī)優(yōu)化理論,并針對(duì)電源的不確定性建立了魯棒隨機(jī)約束條件及隨機(jī)調(diào)度優(yōu)化模型。最后,基于可信性理論分別建立了電能替代常規(guī)數(shù)學(xué)模型和隨機(jī)調(diào)度優(yōu)化模型,并對(duì)所提模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)例分析。(3)設(shè)計(jì)了用戶側(cè)參與電能替代經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析及優(yōu)化模型。討論了用戶側(cè)以電代煤、以電代油和以電代氣等電能替代途徑,建立用戶側(cè)不同電能替代途徑的綜合效益分析模型。以用戶側(cè)電能替代組合投資效益最大為優(yōu)化目標(biāo),綜合考慮電能替代實(shí)施過程中的約束條件,建立了基于經(jīng)典投資組合模型的用戶側(cè)參與電能替代組合優(yōu)化模型�；谟脩魝�(cè)電能替代經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析結(jié)果,圍繞電能采暖、烤煙電價(jià)和電動(dòng)汽車三種電能替代政策,設(shè)計(jì)了用戶側(cè)電能替代的補(bǔ)貼政策。(4)構(gòu)建了發(fā)電側(cè)與用電側(cè)聯(lián)動(dòng)電能替代優(yōu)化模型。首先,設(shè)計(jì)了低谷風(fēng)電參與電采暖的技術(shù)途徑,建立了電采暖的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析模型。然后,介紹了虛擬電廠的基本結(jié)果,建立了基于魯棒隨機(jī)優(yōu)化理論的虛擬電廠隨機(jī)調(diào)度優(yōu)化模型。最后,提出了清潔能源驅(qū)動(dòng)的多能互補(bǔ)系統(tǒng),以系統(tǒng)運(yùn)營(yíng)收益最大化作為優(yōu)化目標(biāo),建立了多能互補(bǔ)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行優(yōu)化模型。(5)提出了電能替代綜合效益多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化評(píng)價(jià)模型。設(shè)計(jì)了電能替代標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系,從發(fā)電側(cè)和用戶側(cè)兩個(gè)維度構(gòu)建包括經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和環(huán)境效益的綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了集成主觀可賦權(quán)原理的指標(biāo)權(quán)重計(jì)算模型,建立了電能替代綜合效益多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化評(píng)估機(jī)制,從整體和局部掌握中國(guó)電能替代政策實(shí)施的主要效果,并縱向和橫向?qū)Ρ攘穗娔芴娲木C合效益。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth has increased rapidly, and the energy consumption based on fossil energy has also increased rapidly. However, because of the single energy structure, economic growth is facing increasingly severe resource constraints and environmental problems. Especially, environmental problems have become an important factor restricting the development of the economy. There is a government subsidized fixed net electricity price system and tax preference system to promote clean energy consumption and ease the single energy consumption structure, but the reverse distribution of energy reserves and demand inhibits the scale and elimination of clean energy in China. Therefore, to encourage renewable energy generation to generate electricity, increase the benefits of clean energy. In order to use the substitution of power generation side power, the substitution of the user side power and the replacement of the two side linkage power, this paper takes the alternative policy of China electric energy as the research object, and studies the related research on the optimization of electric energy substitution and the comprehensive benefit evaluation. The main contents are as follows: (1) combing the electric energy Instead of the existing research results, the basic meaning, the evolution process and the related policies of the electric energy substitution are introduced, and the experience enlightenment of the electric energy substitution in the typical developed countries is summarized, and the comprehensive way of the electric energy substitution can be clearly defined, which can provide important reference for the in-depth and concrete implementation of the power substitution policy in China, and the side of the power generation and the user side. The establishment of an electric alternative optimization mechanism linked to both sides has an important decision value. It provides a comprehensive theoretical basis for the optimization of electricity alternative approaches and the comprehensive benefit evaluation in this paper. (2) a dynamic prediction and optimization model of power generation side participation in power substitution potential is established. The power generation side is analyzed from three aspects of space, potential and approach. The potential and space of electric energy substitution, the robust stochastic optimization theory is introduced to replace the power generation side in the region, and the robust stochastic constraint conditions and stochastic scheduling optimization model are established for the uncertainty of power supply. Finally, based on the credibility theory, the conventional mathematical model and stochastic scheduling optimization model are established. The model is analyzed. (3) the economic benefit analysis and optimization model of the user side participating in the electricity energy substitution are designed. The comprehensive benefit analysis model of the user side with electric generation of coal, electricity generation and electricity generation is established to establish the comprehensive benefit analysis model of different power alternative ways on the user side. The user side power can replace the combined investment benefit most. In order to optimize the target and consider the constraints in the process of electric energy substitution, a combination optimization model of electricity energy substitution based on the classic portfolio model is established. Based on the analysis result of the user side electric energy instead of the economic benefit, three kinds of electric energy substitution policies are designed for the electric energy heating, the flue-cured tobacco electricity price and the electric vehicle. The subsidy policy is replaced by the household side electric energy. (4) the optimization model of the power generation side and the electric energy substitution is constructed. Firstly, the technical approach of the low valley wind power to participate in the electric heating is designed, and the economic analysis model of the electric heating is established. Then, the basic results of the virtual power plant are introduced, and the virtual power plant based on the robust stochastic optimization theory is established. In the end, the multi energy complementary system driven by clean energy is proposed. The optimization model of multi energy complementary system operation is set up with the maximization of the operating revenue of the system as the optimization goal. (5) a multi-objective optimization evaluation model of electric energy replacement comprehensive benefit is proposed. The electric energy substitution standard system is designed, from the generation side and the user side two. In order to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system including economic and environmental benefits, an index weight calculation model with integrated subjective empowerment principle is put forward, and a multi-objective optimization evaluation mechanism is established to replace the comprehensive benefit of electric energy. The main effect of the implementation of China's power substitution policy is mastered from the whole and the part, and the vertical and horizontal comparison is also made. The comprehensive benefits of electric energy replacement.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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