本文選題：置信區(qū)間 + 風電消納��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,風力發(fā)電技術(shù)飛速發(fā)展,電力系統(tǒng)中風電裝機容量也不斷提升,縱然風力發(fā)電具有清潔、低成本、可再生等諸多優(yōu)點,但風電入網(wǎng)消納的問題仍亟待解決。一方面,自然條件下風速具有隨機性和波動性,風電的預測精度較低,電力系統(tǒng)需要預留更多的備用容量來平抑風電預測誤差,這樣既增加了電力系統(tǒng)的備用容量成本,又使火電機組的調(diào)峰深度降低,在嚴峻的情況下,甚至需要采取棄風措施才能保證系統(tǒng)正常運行。另一方面,我國風力資源區(qū)域分布不均,風力富集區(qū)域的風電與負荷之間反調(diào)峰特性更加明顯,風電就地消納困難,火電機組需要進一步減小出力甚至停機來消納風電,不利于系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定運行。為了深入探討風電入網(wǎng)對電力系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的影響和提高風能利用率的措施,通過數(shù)學建模和求解的方式對含風電系統(tǒng)的優(yōu)化調(diào)度問題進行研究。本文的具體分為以下幾點:1)對風電的預測誤差進行概率性分析,在一定的置信水平下對預測誤差的置信區(qū)間進行估計,從而確定系統(tǒng)需要預留的最小備用容量。在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出了置信區(qū)間的估計方法,即BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法,與傳統(tǒng)的Mont Carlo相比,該方法的計算精度更高,魯棒性較好。2)分析抽水蓄能的運行機理,采用隨機規(guī)劃方法,建立風電-火電-抽水蓄能多源協(xié)調(diào)聯(lián)合經(jīng)濟調(diào)度模型。為了提高模型求解效率,提出了一種部分整數(shù)變量的確定思路,來降低模型的非凸性。通過模型的求解分析不同置信水平下機組組合的結(jié)果、抽水蓄能的運行情況以及系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟性等。結(jié)果表明,置信水平越高,機組組合的結(jié)果越可靠,但高的置信水平在保證系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定運行的同時,增加了系統(tǒng)運行的負擔,如抽水蓄能的運行時間、調(diào)峰機組數(shù)量和系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟成本等均會明顯上升。3)以兩區(qū)域互濟供電系統(tǒng)為研究對象,提出了直流聯(lián)絡(luò)線三種運行模式,即固定運行、自由運行和離散化運行。建立了相應的數(shù)學模型來研究區(qū)域間風電調(diào)度的問題,同時提出了目標函數(shù)和約束條件線性化的方法。通過CLPEX進行模型求解,結(jié)果表明,直流聯(lián)絡(luò)線離散化運行方式的效果接近自由優(yōu)化,離散化運行的優(yōu)勢在于充分發(fā)揮兩區(qū)域互濟作用的同時,有效地減少了聯(lián)絡(luò)線的調(diào)整頻率,保證了系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of wind power generation technology, the installed capacity of wind power system is also increasing. Although wind power generation has many advantages, such as clean, low cost, renewable and so on, the problem of wind power receiving into the network still needs to be solved. On the one hand, the wind speed is stochastic and fluctuating under natural conditions, and the prediction accuracy of wind power is low, so the power system needs to reserve more reserve capacity to stabilize the prediction error of wind power, which not only increases the cost of reserve capacity of power system, In order to ensure the normal operation of the system, the peak shaving depth of thermal power units is reduced, and in severe cases, the measures to abandon the wind are even taken to ensure the normal operation of the system. On the other hand, the distribution of wind power resources in China is uneven, the backpeaking characteristic between wind power and load is more obvious in the area of wind power enrichment, and it is difficult for wind power to be absorbed on the spot. Thermal power generating units need to further reduce their output or even stop to absorb wind power. It is unfavorable to the stable operation of the system. In order to probe into the influence of wind power network on power system and the measures to improve the utilization rate of wind energy, the optimal dispatching problem of wind power system with wind power system is studied by mathematical modeling and solving. This paper is divided into the following points: 1) the prediction error of wind power is probabilistic analyzed and the confidence interval of prediction error is estimated at a certain confidence level so as to determine the minimum reserve capacity that the system needs to reserve. On this basis, a confidence interval estimation method, BP neural network algorithm, is proposed. Compared with the traditional Mont Carlo, this method is more accurate and robust. 2) the operation mechanism of pumped storage energy is analyzed, and the stochastic programming method is adopted. A combined economic dispatching model of wind power, thermal power and pumped storage energy is established. In order to improve the efficiency of solving the model, a method of determining partial integer variables is proposed to reduce the non-convexity of the model. By solving the model, the results of unit combination at different confidence levels, the operation of pumped storage energy and the economy of the system are analyzed. The results show that the higher the confidence level, the more reliable the unit combination results are, but the higher confidence level ensures the safe and stable operation of the system, and increases the burden of the system operation, such as the operation time of pumped storage energy. The number of peak-shaving units and the economic cost of the system will increase obviously. 3) taking the two region power supply system as the research object, three operation modes of DC tie-line are put forward, that is, the fixed operation, the free operation and the discrete operation. The corresponding mathematical model is established to study the problem of inter-region wind power scheduling. At the same time, the method of objective function and constraint linearization is proposed. The model is solved by CLPEX. The results show that the effect of discrete operation of DC tie-line is close to that of free optimization, and the advantage of discretization is to give full play to the role of the two regions and to reduce the adjusting frequency of tie-line effectively. The stability of the system is guaranteed.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM73

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