本文選題：電力周期 + 經(jīng)濟周期�。� 參考：《技術(shù)經(jīng)濟》2017年07期

【摘要】：采用1978—2015年中國電力消費和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的年度數(shù)據(jù),基于"三區(qū)制"馬爾科夫區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)移模型,研究了電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變過程,識別和劃分了改革開放后中國電力周期和經(jīng)濟周期的階段,并分析了兩者在不同階段的協(xié)同性。結(jié)果表明:電力周期和經(jīng)濟周期均具有低速增長期、穩(wěn)定增長期和高速增長期三個區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)移特征;電力消費在低速增長期和高速增長期的波動性明顯高于GDP,而在穩(wěn)定增長期的波動性則顯著小于GDP;20世紀(jì)80年代中期以前,是電力周期和經(jīng)濟周期的靜態(tài)協(xié)同期;20世紀(jì)80年代中后期,兩者處于非協(xié)同期;之后,兩者處于顯著的跨區(qū)制動態(tài)協(xié)同期,且處于協(xié)同期的電力周期與經(jīng)濟周期在時間上表現(xiàn)出較高的一致性。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual data of China's electricity consumption and GDP from 1978 to 2015, the dynamic transformation process of electricity consumption and economic growth is studied based on the "three-region" Markov system transfer model. The phases of electric power cycle and economic cycle in China after the reform and opening up are identified and divided, and the synergy between the two is analyzed in different stages. The results show that the power cycle and economic cycle have three regional system transfer characteristics: low growth period, stable growth period and high speed growth period. The fluctuation of electricity consumption in the period of low speed growth and high speed growth is obviously higher than that of GDP, while the volatility in stable growth period is significantly lower than that in GDP before the mid-1980s. It is the static collaborative period of electric power cycle and economic cycle. In the middle and late 1980s, both of them are in the non-synergetic period, and after that, they are in the significant cross-region dynamic collaborative period. And the electric power cycle and the economic cycle in the coordination period show a high consistency in time.
【作者單位】： 上海電力學(xué)院經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;國網(wǎng)冀北電力有限公司經(jīng)濟技術(shù)研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項目“外商直接投資對我國二氧化碳排放績效的影響效應(yīng)研究及政策選擇”(71103120);國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項目“家庭智能用電任務(wù)調(diào)度優(yōu)化及其對電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷影響分析模型”(51507099)
【分類號】：F124;F224;F426.61

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