發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-30 19:38

  本文選題：分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源,作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的助推劑,無論是在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)還是社會(huì)等方面,都是人們關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。我國每年對(duì)于能源的需求,尤其是化石燃料的需求不斷增加,直接導(dǎo)致了能源的短缺和環(huán)境污染等問題,進(jìn)而抑制了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。由于分布式光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目運(yùn)行對(duì)環(huán)境的損害幾乎為零,且其相比于大型的地面集中式光伏電站,建設(shè)的成本相對(duì)較低,與此同時(shí)又受到國家、地區(qū)的多重優(yōu)惠政策,因此其發(fā)展十分的有利。分布式光伏發(fā)電能夠改變地區(qū)原有的能源結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)資源的優(yōu)化配置,還能夠保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境,因此對(duì)于社會(huì)、生態(tài)都起到了優(yōu)化的作用。本文的研究對(duì)象為分布式光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究是站在投資商的角度進(jìn)行研究分析的,通過對(duì)分布式光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的梳理和分析,尋找到對(duì)于投資商來說,在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目投資時(shí),所要面臨的項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小,并知曉該項(xiàng)目是否適合投資。因此就需要結(jié)合項(xiàng)目本身的特點(diǎn)找出該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的種類,本文根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建原則,構(gòu)建了分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系;充分考慮決策者結(jié)合整個(gè)項(xiàng)目實(shí)際情況的經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷,避免盲目的追求數(shù)據(jù)信息,又能夠更合理的給出各指標(biāo)的權(quán)數(shù),采用AHP以確定各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重;運(yùn)用物元可拓理論確定了待評(píng)物元、經(jīng)典域、節(jié)域,繼而得到了項(xiàng)目關(guān)于各評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)的關(guān)聯(lián)度,得到最終的基于AHP的物元可拓評(píng)價(jià)模型。最后,將該評(píng)價(jià)模型運(yùn)用到JX縣3MW屋頂光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)上,對(duì)該項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。對(duì)于該分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建立的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系包括外部政策導(dǎo)向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)四個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),通過采用本文所提出的評(píng)價(jià)模型,確定了待評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目的評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)為“極低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,并采用了期望損失值法計(jì)算了每個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)對(duì)利潤的期望損失值,進(jìn)而得出評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)論和項(xiàng)目中的主要問題,并結(jié)合這些問題提出了相關(guān)建議,以便將本文的研究成果落地實(shí)施。本文結(jié)合實(shí)際的分布式光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目,研究在該項(xiàng)目建設(shè)運(yùn)行過程中,國家、地區(qū)關(guān)于分布式光伏補(bǔ)貼政策是否能夠及時(shí)的落實(shí)到項(xiàng)目中,補(bǔ)貼發(fā)放是否能夠落實(shí)到位,以及所建項(xiàng)目的周邊環(huán)境是否符合建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的條件,而當(dāng)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過程中又是否正回饋于周邊的環(huán)境,當(dāng)然技術(shù)方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及該項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)行能夠給投資商帶來可觀的利益等一些可見的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了全面的分析,并基于這些目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)要素分析,構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系及物元可拓評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)案例中的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)和相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制和預(yù)防的建議,不僅為本項(xiàng)目提供保障,也為以后相似的項(xiàng)目提供重要的參考。
[Abstract]:Energy, as a booster of national economic development, is a hot topic in politics, economy and society. The increasing demand for energy resources, especially fossil fuels, directly leads to the shortage of energy and environmental pollution in China, and thus inhibits the healthy development of social economy. Because the environmental damage of the distributed photovoltaic power generation project is almost zero, and compared with the large-scale centralized photovoltaic power station, the construction cost is relatively low, and at the same time, it is also subject to the national and regional multiple preferential policies. Therefore, its development is very advantageous. Distributed photovoltaic power generation can change the original energy structure of the region, promote the optimal allocation of resources, and also protect the ecological environment, so it plays an important role in the optimization of society and ecology. The research object of this paper is the risk of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, and the risk evaluation research is carried out from the perspective of the investor. Through combing and analyzing the distributed photovoltaic power generation project, we find out that the risk evaluation research is for the investor. The risk and size of the project to be faced when investing in the project, and to know whether the project is suitable for investment. Therefore, it is necessary to find out the types of risk factors according to the characteristics of the project itself. According to the construction principle of risk evaluation index system, this paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project. Fully consider the decision makers combined with the actual situation of the project experience judgment, avoid blind pursuit of data information, but also more reasonable to give the weight of each index, using AHP to determine the weight of each index; The matter-element extension theory is used to determine the matter-element, the classical domain, the nodal domain, and then the correlation degree of each evaluation level of the project is obtained, and the final matter-element extension evaluation model based on AHP is obtained. Finally, the evaluation model is applied to the risk evaluation of 3MW roof photovoltaic power generation project in JX county, and the risk degree of the project is evaluated. For the risk evaluation index system of the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project, it includes four risk evaluation indexes: external policy-oriented risk, environmental risk, technical risk and economic risk, by adopting the evaluation model proposed in this paper. The evaluation grade of the project to be evaluated is determined as "very low risk", and the expected loss value of profit for each risk index is calculated by using the expected loss value method, and then the evaluation conclusions and the main problems in the project are obtained. Combined with these problems, some suggestions are put forward in order to carry out the research results of this paper. Combined with the actual distributed photovoltaic power generation project, this paper studies whether the distributed photovoltaic subsidy policy can be implemented to the project in time, whether the subsidy can be implemented in place during the construction and operation of the project. And whether the surrounding environment of the project conforms to the conditions of the construction project, and whether the surrounding environment is being returned to the surrounding environment during the construction of the project, Of course, some visible risks, such as the technical risks and the operation of the project, which can bring considerable benefits to the investors, are comprehensively analyzed, and based on the analysis of the elements of risk assessment for these purposes, The risk evaluation index system and matter-element extension evaluation model are constructed, and the risk evaluation and risk control and prevention suggestions are carried out for the project in the case, which not only provides the guarantee for the project, but also provides a guarantee for the project. It also provides important reference for similar projects in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 趙偉偉;安文;;光伏電站項(xiàng)目后評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系分析[J];電子測試;2013年12期

2 柳睿;楊鏡非;程浩忠;顧潔;陳彬;張功林;;分布式電源并網(wǎng)的綜合評(píng)價(jià)[J];電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化學(xué)報(bào);2013年01期

3 李偉;李世超;王丹;;太陽能光伏發(fā)電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[J];農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào);2011年S1期

4 陳紹輝;孫鵬;張彩慶;;配電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與評(píng)估[J];華東電力;2011年04期

5 張恒旭;劉玉田;;極端冰雪災(zāi)害對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行影響的綜合評(píng)估[J];中國電機(jī)工程學(xué)報(bào);2011年10期

6 耿亞新;周新生;;太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的理論及發(fā)展路徑[J];中國軟科學(xué);2010年04期

7 張悅;梁雙;;光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)的應(yīng)用與經(jīng)濟(jì)性分析[J];現(xiàn)代商業(yè);2009年36期

8 黃魯成;李劍;;基于組合評(píng)價(jià)的太陽能電池產(chǎn)業(yè)化過程中關(guān)鍵技術(shù)的研究[J];現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué);2009年09期

9 劉道春;;太陽能光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)及其發(fā)展前景[J];大眾用電;2009年03期

10 李衛(wèi)林;;可再生能源的開發(fā)與應(yīng)用前景分析[J];能源與環(huán)境;2009年01期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前1條

1 ;美國、歐洲和日本等國家鼓勵(lì)發(fā)展分布式發(fā)電[A];《電站信息》2012年第9期[C];2012年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 鐘渝;我國太陽能發(fā)電管理策略研究[D];電子科技大學(xué);2012年

2 朱震宇;我國太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及決策研究[D];中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）;2010年

3 董密;太陽能光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)與控制策略研究[D];中南大學(xué);2007年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 孟忠;太陽能光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的后評(píng)價(jià)及實(shí)證研究[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1825901