發(fā)布時間：2018-04-30 19:38

  本文選題：分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電 + 風(fēng)險評價　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源,作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的助推劑,無論是在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)還是社會等方面,都是人們關(guān)注的熱點。我國每年對于能源的需求,尤其是化石燃料的需求不斷增加,直接導(dǎo)致了能源的短缺和環(huán)境污染等問題,進(jìn)而抑制了社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。由于分布式光伏發(fā)電項目運(yùn)行對環(huán)境的損害幾乎為零,且其相比于大型的地面集中式光伏電站,建設(shè)的成本相對較低,與此同時又受到國家、地區(qū)的多重優(yōu)惠政策,因此其發(fā)展十分的有利。分布式光伏發(fā)電能夠改變地區(qū)原有的能源結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)資源的優(yōu)化配置,還能夠保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境,因此對于社會、生態(tài)都起到了優(yōu)化的作用。本文的研究對象為分布式光伏發(fā)電項目的風(fēng)險,并且該風(fēng)險評價研究是站在投資商的角度進(jìn)行研究分析的,通過對分布式光伏發(fā)電項目的梳理和分析,尋找到對于投資商來說,在進(jìn)行項目投資時,所要面臨的項目的風(fēng)險,以及風(fēng)險的大小,并知曉該項目是否適合投資。因此就需要結(jié)合項目本身的特點找出該項目的風(fēng)險因素的種類,本文根據(jù)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建原則,構(gòu)建了分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電項目風(fēng)險評價的指標(biāo)體系;充分考慮決策者結(jié)合整個項目實際情況的經(jīng)驗判斷,避免盲目的追求數(shù)據(jù)信息,又能夠更合理的給出各指標(biāo)的權(quán)數(shù),采用AHP以確定各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重;運(yùn)用物元可拓理論確定了待評物元、經(jīng)典域、節(jié)域,繼而得到了項目關(guān)于各評價等級的關(guān)聯(lián)度,得到最終的基于AHP的物元可拓評價模型。最后,將該評價模型運(yùn)用到JX縣3MW屋頂光伏發(fā)電項目風(fēng)險評價上,對該項目風(fēng)險程度進(jìn)行評價。對于該分布式光伏并網(wǎng)發(fā)電項目風(fēng)險建立的評價指標(biāo)體系包括外部政策導(dǎo)向風(fēng)險、環(huán)境風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險以及經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險四個風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo),通過采用本文所提出的評價模型,確定了待評價項目的評價等級為“極低風(fēng)險”,并采用了期望損失值法計算了每個風(fēng)險指標(biāo)對利潤的期望損失值,進(jìn)而得出評價結(jié)論和項目中的主要問題,并結(jié)合這些問題提出了相關(guān)建議,以便將本文的研究成果落地實施。本文結(jié)合實際的分布式光伏發(fā)電項目,研究在該項目建設(shè)運(yùn)行過程中,國家、地區(qū)關(guān)于分布式光伏補(bǔ)貼政策是否能夠及時的落實到項目中,補(bǔ)貼發(fā)放是否能夠落實到位,以及所建項目的周邊環(huán)境是否符合建設(shè)項目的條件,而當(dāng)項目建設(shè)過程中又是否正回饋于周邊的環(huán)境,當(dāng)然技術(shù)方面的風(fēng)險以及該項目的運(yùn)行能夠給投資商帶來可觀的利益等一些可見的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了全面的分析,并基于這些目風(fēng)險評價要素分析,構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系及物元可拓評價模型,對案例中的項目進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險的評價和相關(guān)風(fēng)險控制和預(yù)防的建議,不僅為本項目提供保障,也為以后相似的項目提供重要的參考。
[Abstract]:Energy, as a booster of national economic development, is a hot topic in politics, economy and society. The increasing demand for energy resources, especially fossil fuels, directly leads to the shortage of energy and environmental pollution in China, and thus inhibits the healthy development of social economy. Because the environmental damage of the distributed photovoltaic power generation project is almost zero, and compared with the large-scale centralized photovoltaic power station, the construction cost is relatively low, and at the same time, it is also subject to the national and regional multiple preferential policies. Therefore, its development is very advantageous. Distributed photovoltaic power generation can change the original energy structure of the region, promote the optimal allocation of resources, and also protect the ecological environment, so it plays an important role in the optimization of society and ecology. The research object of this paper is the risk of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, and the risk evaluation research is carried out from the perspective of the investor. Through combing and analyzing the distributed photovoltaic power generation project, we find out that the risk evaluation research is for the investor. The risk and size of the project to be faced when investing in the project, and to know whether the project is suitable for investment. Therefore, it is necessary to find out the types of risk factors according to the characteristics of the project itself. According to the construction principle of risk evaluation index system, this paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project. Fully consider the decision makers combined with the actual situation of the project experience judgment, avoid blind pursuit of data information, but also more reasonable to give the weight of each index, using AHP to determine the weight of each index; The matter-element extension theory is used to determine the matter-element, the classical domain, the nodal domain, and then the correlation degree of each evaluation level of the project is obtained, and the final matter-element extension evaluation model based on AHP is obtained. Finally, the evaluation model is applied to the risk evaluation of 3MW roof photovoltaic power generation project in JX county, and the risk degree of the project is evaluated. For the risk evaluation index system of the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project, it includes four risk evaluation indexes: external policy-oriented risk, environmental risk, technical risk and economic risk, by adopting the evaluation model proposed in this paper. The evaluation grade of the project to be evaluated is determined as "very low risk", and the expected loss value of profit for each risk index is calculated by using the expected loss value method, and then the evaluation conclusions and the main problems in the project are obtained. Combined with these problems, some suggestions are put forward in order to carry out the research results of this paper. Combined with the actual distributed photovoltaic power generation project, this paper studies whether the distributed photovoltaic subsidy policy can be implemented to the project in time, whether the subsidy can be implemented in place during the construction and operation of the project. And whether the surrounding environment of the project conforms to the conditions of the construction project, and whether the surrounding environment is being returned to the surrounding environment during the construction of the project, Of course, some visible risks, such as the technical risks and the operation of the project, which can bring considerable benefits to the investors, are comprehensively analyzed, and based on the analysis of the elements of risk assessment for these purposes, The risk evaluation index system and matter-element extension evaluation model are constructed, and the risk evaluation and risk control and prevention suggestions are carried out for the project in the case, which not only provides the guarantee for the project, but also provides a guarantee for the project. It also provides important reference for similar projects in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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