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基于風(fēng)電接納空間電量回歸模型的棄風(fēng)率快速計(jì)算方法

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-26 20:47

  本文選題:接納空間電量 + 棄風(fēng)率。 參考:《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2017年01期


【摘要】:近年來(lái),風(fēng)電發(fā)展迅速,棄風(fēng)也日益增多,對(duì)電網(wǎng)棄風(fēng)率做出快速準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估對(duì)指導(dǎo)新能源開(kāi)發(fā)規(guī)劃、制訂常規(guī)電源年/月發(fā)電計(jì)劃具有重要意義。提出了一種評(píng)估未來(lái)電網(wǎng)風(fēng)電接納能力和棄風(fēng)情況的新方法。文中以一段時(shí)間的接納空間電量來(lái)衡量此時(shí)間段的電網(wǎng)接納風(fēng)電能力,經(jīng)理論分析、回歸修正,得到接納空間電量與備用率、負(fù)荷率、負(fù)荷電量、常規(guī)機(jī)組最小出力系數(shù)的計(jì)算模型。然后,分析棄風(fēng)率與風(fēng)電理論電量占接納空間電量比例的關(guān)系,經(jīng)曲線(xiàn)擬合得到棄風(fēng)率與該比例的分段線(xiàn)性函數(shù)。最后,以接納空間電量為橋梁,得到棄風(fēng)率與備用率、負(fù)荷率、負(fù)荷電量、常規(guī)機(jī)組最小技術(shù)出力系數(shù)、風(fēng)電理論電量的計(jì)算模型。利用該方法,算例中評(píng)估了我國(guó)北部某3個(gè)省份2015年的棄風(fēng)率,與時(shí)序生產(chǎn)模擬的對(duì)比驗(yàn)證了所提方法的有效性。并定義棄風(fēng)壓力指數(shù)作為風(fēng)電優(yōu)先調(diào)度難度的評(píng)估指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, wind power has developed rapidly and abandoned wind has been increasing day by day. It is of great significance to make a rapid and accurate evaluation of grid wind abandonment rate to guide the new energy development planning and to formulate the annual / monthly generation plan of conventional power supply. In this paper, a new method for evaluating the wind power acceptance and wind rejection in the future power grid is presented. In this paper, the capacity of accepting wind power in this period of time is measured by a period of time. Through theoretical analysis and regression correction, the capacity of receiving space electricity and reserve rate, load rate and load capacity are obtained. The calculation model of minimum output coefficient of conventional units. Then, the relationship between the wind abandonment rate and the proportion of the theoretical electricity quantity to the accepted space is analyzed, and the piecewise linear function between the abandoned wind rate and the proportion is obtained by curve fitting. Finally, taking the space electric quantity as the bridge, the calculation model of abandoned wind rate and reserve rate, load rate, load electricity quantity, minimum technical output coefficient of conventional unit and theoretical power quantity of wind power are obtained. By using this method, the wind abandonment rate of three provinces in the north of China in 2015 is evaluated, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparison with the time series production simulation. The abandoned wind pressure index is defined as the evaluation index of wind power priority dispatching difficulty.
【作者單位】: 新能源與儲(chǔ)能運(yùn)行控制國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(中國(guó)電力科學(xué)研究院);
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:TM72

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