發(fā)布時間：2018-04-19 10:56

  本文選題：電力行業(yè) + 減排政策��； 參考：《技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用2003—2015年中國的省際面板數(shù)據(jù),通過估計電力需求函數(shù)模擬碳稅的政策效果,為電力行業(yè)減排政策的制定提供了參考。結(jié)果表明:隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),電價對電力需求的影響減弱,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)特別是工業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整對電力需求和電力消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生一定影響;由于電力需求對電價變動不敏感,因此碳稅的減排效果有限;為實現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo),政府需要征收高額碳稅,但這在現(xiàn)有的電價水平下較難實施;從減排效果和實施難度兩個方面來看,當(dāng)前暫不開征碳稅的減排政策具有一定合理性;與碳稅相比,加快供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、降低火力發(fā)電比重,能夠更有效地實現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo);現(xiàn)階段政府應(yīng)將調(diào)整電源結(jié)構(gòu)作為節(jié)能減排工作的重點。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2015, the paper simulates the effect of carbon tax policy by estimating the power demand function, which provides a reference for the power industry to make the emission reduction policy.The results show that as China's economy enters the new normal, the influence of electricity price on power demand weakens, and the adjustment of industrial structure, especially the internal structure of industry, has a certain impact on power demand and power consumption structure.Because the electricity demand is insensitive to the change of electricity price, the carbon tax has limited effect on emission reduction; in order to achieve the emission reduction target, the government needs to levy a high carbon tax, but this is difficult to implement under the existing electricity price level.From the two aspects of emission reduction effect and implementation difficulty, the current emission reduction policy of not levying carbon tax is reasonable, compared with carbon tax, accelerating supply-side structural reform and reducing the proportion of thermal power generation can achieve emission reduction targets more effectively.At present, the government should adjust the power supply structure as the focus of energy saving and emission reduction.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目“多目標(biāo)中國電力價格綜合規(guī)制方案研究——基于價格形成機(jī)制與產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈績效的視角”(71273061)
【分類號】：F206;F426.61
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本文編號：1772803