本文選題：典型電網(wǎng) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的不穩(wěn)定性,造成大面積停電事故的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高。而大面積停電事故會造成工廠停產(chǎn)、機(jī)器停止運(yùn)行,給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來巨大的損失,也會給人民的生活造成嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。因此,保障電網(wǎng)的運(yùn)行安全,逐步消除停電事故,是一項(xiàng)十分重要的工作。本文研究電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估方法,論證電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估工作的必要性,進(jìn)行電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指標(biāo)體系的探索和研究,對電力安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估工作的總體框架設(shè)計(jì)、評估流程、評估內(nèi)容等工作進(jìn)行研究,為電力安全監(jiān)管工作提供依據(jù)。研究具體任務(wù)包括以下三部分:首先是電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估的可行性研究。根據(jù)我國電力安全生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀、電力系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和運(yùn)行特點(diǎn)及電力安全管理工作情況,研究電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估的可行性,論證電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估工作的必要性和重要意義。其次是電力系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估指標(biāo)體系研究。開展電力安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性分析評估理論和評價(jià)體系研究,建立能夠準(zhǔn)確、直觀描述電力安全狀況和脆弱環(huán)節(jié)的評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。本指標(biāo)體系最終選取了3個(gè)一級指標(biāo)(結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn))、下面包括多個(gè)二級指標(biāo)、三級指標(biāo)和四級指標(biāo),結(jié)合Delphi Method方法(專家調(diào)查方法),給出了指標(biāo)計(jì)算公式,對各個(gè)指標(biāo)間的權(quán)重進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的計(jì)算。最后是試點(diǎn)應(yīng)用。在廣東省區(qū)進(jìn)行試點(diǎn),運(yùn)用研究提出的評價(jià)體系評估電力安全狀態(tài),驗(yàn)證評價(jià)體系的科學(xué)性、可行性。并且對評估結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析和說明,研究了其結(jié)構(gòu)薄弱性、技術(shù)薄弱性和設(shè)備薄弱性,為其當(dāng)?shù)馗纳齐娋W(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)提出了建議和意見。
[Abstract]:Because of the instability of power system, the risk of large area blackout is high.However, a large area of power outages will result in the shutdown of factories and the shutdown of machines, which will bring huge losses to the economy, and will also cause a serious negative impact on the lives of the people.Therefore, it is a very important job to ensure the safety of power grid operation and gradually eliminate power outages.This paper studies the analysis and evaluation method of power system security risk and vulnerability, demonstrates the necessity of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment, and explores and studies the power system security risk assessment index system.In order to provide the basis for the supervision of electric power safety, this paper studies the overall framework design, evaluation process and content of power security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment.The specific task includes the following three parts: firstly, the feasibility study of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis.According to the present situation of electric power safety production in China, the structure and operation characteristics of power system, and the working situation of electric power safety management, the feasibility of analyzing and evaluating the safety risk and vulnerability of power system is studied.The necessity and significance of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment are demonstrated.Secondly, the research of power system security risk and vulnerability analysis and evaluation index system.The theory and evaluation system of power security risk and vulnerability analysis and evaluation are studied to establish an evaluation index system which can accurately and intuitively describe the power security situation and vulnerable links.In this index system, three primary indexes (structural risk, technical risk, equipment risk) are finally selected. The following include several secondary indexes, three grade indexes and four grade indexes. Combined with Delphi Method method (expert investigation method), the formula of index calculation is given.The weights of each index are calculated accordingly.Finally, the pilot application.A pilot project was carried out in Guangdong Province, and the evaluation system was used to evaluate the electric power security status and to verify the scientific and feasibility of the evaluation system.The evaluation results are analyzed and explained, and the structural weakness, technical weakness and equipment weakness are studied, and suggestions and suggestions are put forward for the local improvement of power grid risk indicators.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM73

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