本文選題：負荷建模 + 統(tǒng)計綜合法　； 參考：《湖南大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,由于電力系統(tǒng)工程技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展和電網(wǎng)規(guī)模的不斷擴大,建設(shè)堅強統(tǒng)一的智能電網(wǎng)對電網(wǎng)智能調(diào)度提出了新的更高要求,以在線、實時仿真計算結(jié)果為主要決策依據(jù)的電網(wǎng)運行調(diào)度與安全穩(wěn)定控制,是智能電網(wǎng)建設(shè)條件下電網(wǎng)調(diào)度的必然發(fā)展趨勢。而實時、精確的電網(wǎng)仿真計算必須依賴于實時、準確的負荷模型,目前電網(wǎng)仿真計算普遍采用一套既有的負荷模型和模型參數(shù),這不能在根本上滿足精確的實時仿真計算對負荷模型的要求。本文立足于當前電力系統(tǒng)負荷建模工作的實際狀況,針對負荷特性的隨機時變性問題,在對電力系統(tǒng)綜合負荷建模方法進行深入研究的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了一套完整的變電站綜合負荷在線建模的理論方法和實現(xiàn)技術(shù)。首先綜合運用統(tǒng)計綜合法和總體測辨法進行負荷建模,然后在變電站典型用電行業(yè)的構(gòu)成解析的基礎(chǔ)上,對得到的負荷模型參數(shù)進行在線修正或預測,以便得到實時的或未來的負荷模型參數(shù)。統(tǒng)計綜合法基于統(tǒng)計學原理,從底層用電設(shè)備建模開始,逐步加權(quán),先完成行業(yè)建模,再完成變電站建模。總體測辨法基于系統(tǒng)辨識理論,根據(jù)現(xiàn)場實測數(shù)據(jù)利用辨識算法來確定模型的結(jié)構(gòu)和模型參數(shù),使得模型響應能最好地擬合觀測到的實測數(shù)據(jù)。變電站典型用電行業(yè)的構(gòu)成解析方法是通過對海量數(shù)據(jù)平臺存儲的用戶負控系統(tǒng)與變電站SCADA系統(tǒng)采集得到的用戶和變電站日負荷功率曲線進行數(shù)據(jù)挖掘,經(jīng)用戶分類與綜合后得到變電站各類典型用電行業(yè)的等效日負荷功率曲線,然后在典型用電行業(yè)的等效日負荷功率曲線和變電站日負荷功率曲線之間建立映射關(guān)系,通過最小二乘法辨識兩者間的映射關(guān)系,最后解析得到變電站典型用電行業(yè)的構(gòu)成比例。在此方法的基礎(chǔ)上,分別利用實時的和負荷預測得到的日負荷功率曲線,解析得到變電站實時的和待預測日的典型用電行業(yè)構(gòu)成比例,結(jié)合典型用電行業(yè)的負荷模型參數(shù),加權(quán)即可得到變電站實時的和待預測日的綜合負荷模型參數(shù),最終實現(xiàn)模型參數(shù)的在線修正和預測。根據(jù)不同的建模方法需要,本文用于綜合負荷建模的數(shù)據(jù)有：用戶數(shù)據(jù)(含調(diào)查統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、負控數(shù)據(jù))、SCADA/EMS數(shù)據(jù)、故障錄波數(shù)據(jù)、WAMS/PMU數(shù)據(jù)等四類數(shù)據(jù)。從廣域信息的來源及特點、下載及預處理方法、數(shù)據(jù)庫設(shè)計以及入庫流程等幾個方面詳細闡述了廣域信息的集成方法,形成了廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)庫以便負荷建模系統(tǒng)調(diào)用。以綜合負荷建模方法和廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),在基于Windows的操作系統(tǒng)下,采用結(jié)構(gòu)化設(shè)計思想,利用面向?qū)ο蟮目梢暬浖㑇isual Studio 2005作為編程環(huán)境,以C++作為編程語言,以關(guān)系數(shù)據(jù)庫SQL Server 2000作為本地數(shù)據(jù)管理服務器,通過ADO(活動數(shù)據(jù)對象)數(shù)據(jù)接口技術(shù)實現(xiàn)廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)庫的操作,設(shè)計開發(fā)了數(shù)據(jù)源下載預處理模塊、廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)庫管理模塊、行業(yè)及變電站分類與綜合模塊、負荷模型辨識模塊、負荷模型參數(shù)在線修正模塊與負荷模型參數(shù)庫管理模塊,并通過WinExec函數(shù)和動態(tài)鏈接庫(DLL)等網(wǎng)絡軟件技術(shù)實現(xiàn)各個功能模塊的調(diào)用,共同構(gòu)建了完整的基于廣域信息的變電站綜合負荷在線建模系統(tǒng)。其主要功能是對廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)進行下載、預處理、查詢及修改,形成歷史/實時廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)庫；在此基礎(chǔ)上利用歷史/實時廣域信息數(shù)據(jù)實現(xiàn)負荷模型的辨識和在線實時修正,最終形成完整的歷史/實時負荷模型參數(shù)庫,以便電網(wǎng)仿真計算應用。本文開發(fā)的負荷在線建模系統(tǒng)已在某省級電力調(diào)度控制中心試運行,運行穩(wěn)定,與以往的負荷建模系統(tǒng)相比,操作更加簡單靈活,功能更加完善。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the rapid development of engineering technology of power system and the enlargement of power grid scale, the construction of smart grid strong unified smart grid to put forward higher requirements, a new online, grid operation security and stability control real time simulation results as the main basis for decision-making, is the inevitable trend of the development of smart grid dispatching construction conditions. In real time, accurate calculation of power system simulation must rely on real-time, accurate load model, the power grid simulation generally adopts a set of existing load models and model parameters, which can not meet the real-time simulation precision in the fundamental calculation of load model. According to the actual situation in the current power system load modeling work, according to the random time-varying load characteristics, based on the in-depth study of power system composite load modeling method On the construction and implementation of a complete set of theory and method of substation load modeling. Firstly using the statistical synthesis method and the measurement method of load modeling, and then in a typical substation based on the power industry composition analysis, revision or online prediction on load model parameters, in order to get real time or the future load model parameters. The statistical synthesis method based on the principle of statistics, starting from the bottom of the electric equipment to complete the industry gradually weighted modeling, modeling, and complete substation modeling. The measurement method based on system identification theory, according to the measured data using the identification algorithm to determine the model structure and model parameters, the the model response can best fit the observed data. A typical substation analysis method of power industry is based on the massive data storage platform for users of negative control System and substation SCADA system collected by users and power substation daily load curve data mining, all kinds of typical daily load substation with the equivalent power curve power industry obtained by user classification and synthesis, and then establish the mapping relationship between power industry, daily load curve and the equivalent power substation daily load curve in typical power, by mapping the relationship between the least squares identification, finally resolved the typical substation electricity industry proportion. On the basis of the method, the daily load curve of power respectively by real-time and load forecasting, analytic and real-time forecasting of the electricity industry typical proportion, with the typical parameters of electric load model the industry, can be obtained and weighted real-time forecast load model parameters, finally realize the model parameters The online correction and prediction. According to the need of different modeling methods, this paper used comprehensive load modeling data: user data (including the survey statistics, negative control data), SCADA/EMS data, fault recorder data, WAMS/PMU data and other four kinds of data sources and characteristics. From the wide area information, download and pretreatment methods and the design of database and storage process described in detail several aspects of integrated method of wide area information, forming a wide area information database for load modeling system calls. With comprehensive load modeling method and wide area information based on the data in the operating system based on Windows, using a structured design idea, using the object-oriented visualization software Visual Studio 2005 the programming environment, using C++ as a programming language, using the relational database SQL Server 2000 as the local data management server through the ADO (active data object number) According to the implementation of wide area information database interface technology, the design and development of data source download wide information preprocessing module, database management module, and substation industry classification and synthesis module, module load model identification, load model parameters online correction module and load model parameter library management module, and through WinExec function and dynamic link library (DLL etc.) to realize the function of each module is called network software technology, to build a complete substation online load modeling system based on wide area information. Its main function is to the wide area information data download, preprocessing, query and modify, form a real-time wide area information database on the basis of history; history / real-time wide area information the data real-time identification and on-line correction of the load model, and ultimately form a complete history / real-time load model parameter library, in imitation of power grid The online load modeling system developed in this paper has been trial run in a provincial power dispatching control center and runs stably. Compared with the previous load modeling system, the load online operation system is more simple and flexible, and the function is more perfect.

【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TM714;TM743;TM63

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