發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-05 02:03

  本文選題：完全成本　切入點(diǎn)：煤炭發(fā)電　出處：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力行業(yè)在我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著至關(guān)重要的作用,隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,電力需求日益增加,全社會(huì)總電力消費(fèi)逐年增加,目前我國(guó)的發(fā)電量已經(jīng)超過美國(guó),取代其成為世界第一。我國(guó)煤炭資源豐富,這也決定了我國(guó)電力結(jié)構(gòu)以煤炭發(fā)電為主,煤電在我國(guó)總發(fā)電量中長(zhǎng)期占據(jù)70%以上。雖然煤電產(chǎn)業(yè)在提升國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)方面起到了重要的作用,但是由于煤電本身具有高污染、高能耗以及高的負(fù)外部性等特點(diǎn),在煤炭發(fā)電過程中會(huì)對(duì)大氣、水、地表以及土壤環(huán)境等造成嚴(yán)重的污染問題,但是該部分外部成本沒有被恰當(dāng)考慮在其發(fā)電成本中。因此,我國(guó)在積極尋求降低煤電污染物排放的措施,除此之外,,我國(guó)也在不斷調(diào)整電源結(jié)構(gòu),積極發(fā)展可再生能源發(fā)電方式,風(fēng)力發(fā)電由于具有污染低、技術(shù)成熟等優(yōu)勢(shì),而獲得青睞并得到大力發(fā)展,但是與煤炭發(fā)電相比,風(fēng)力發(fā)電成本較高�；谠摤F(xiàn)狀,并在其他文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文從完全成本視角出發(fā),以完全成本理論、外部成本理論以及產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力相關(guān)理論等為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)成本模型、影子定價(jià)法、敏感性分析、灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型、學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型、Bass模型以及常數(shù)替代模型地等研究方法對(duì)煤電與風(fēng)電的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與替代問題進(jìn)行深入研究。首先,基于動(dòng)態(tài)成本模型對(duì)煤炭發(fā)電的內(nèi)部成本進(jìn)行梳理以及測(cè)算,然后對(duì)其存在的多重外部性問題進(jìn)行識(shí)別和分析,構(gòu)建外部性計(jì)量方法,以此得到煤電的完全成本。同樣,通過對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電過程進(jìn)行分析,得到風(fēng)電成本的測(cè)算值,對(duì)這兩種發(fā)電方式的完全成本進(jìn)行比較可以發(fā)現(xiàn),即使將煤電外部成本考慮進(jìn)去,煤電依舊保持其成本優(yōu)勢(shì)。分別通過灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型和學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型對(duì)煤電與風(fēng)電成本未來變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)在不考慮煤電外部成本的情況下,煤電與風(fēng)電成本大致會(huì)在2026-2027年之間相持平;在考慮煤電外部成本的情況下,兩者成本相持平時(shí)間提前6-8年的時(shí)間。然后,基于Bass模型對(duì)煤電與風(fēng)電的發(fā)展過程進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)風(fēng)電在我國(guó)未來電力結(jié)構(gòu)中占據(jù)不可取代的地位,并且通過風(fēng)電對(duì)煤電的替代彈性研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)煤電價(jià)格的上升對(duì)于提升風(fēng)電需求有積極影響。本研究為政府就電力問題制定政策提供依據(jù),為發(fā)電企業(yè)和投資者進(jìn)行決策提供意見,并使得我國(guó)電力行業(yè)得以持續(xù)發(fā)展,同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、電力與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry plays a vital role in the development of our national economy. With the rapid development of our economy, the demand for electricity is increasing day by day, and the total power consumption of the whole society is increasing year by year. At present, the electricity generation in our country has surpassed that of the United States.Replace it as the first in the world.China is rich in coal resources, which determines that the main power structure in China is coal power generation, which accounts for more than 70% of the total electricity generation in China for a long time.Although the coal and electricity industry has played an important role in promoting the national economy, because of its characteristics of high pollution, high energy consumption, and high negative externalities, coal and electricity will affect the atmosphere and water in the process of coal power generation.The surface and soil environment cause serious pollution problems, but this part of the external cost is not properly considered in its power generation costs.Therefore, China is actively seeking measures to reduce the emission of pollutants from coal and electricity. In addition to this, China is also constantly adjusting the power supply structure, actively developing renewable energy generation methods, and wind power generation has the advantages of low pollution, mature technology, and so on.But the cost of wind power generation is higher than coal power generation.Based on the present situation and other literatures, this paper uses the dynamic cost model and shadow pricing method based on the complete cost theory, the external cost theory and the related theory of industrial competitiveness, from the perspective of complete cost.Sensitivity analysis, grey prediction model, learning curve model Bass model and constant substitution model are used to study the competition and substitution between coal and wind power.Firstly, the internal cost of coal power generation is combed and measured based on dynamic cost model, and then the multiple externalities are identified and analyzed, and the external measurement method is constructed to obtain the complete cost of coal power generation.In the same way, by analyzing the wind power generation process, the calculation value of wind power cost is obtained, and it is found that even if the external cost of coal and electricity is taken into account, the coal power still maintains its cost advantage.The grey prediction model and the learning curve model are used to predict and compare the future variation trend of coal power and wind power cost. It is found that the coal power and wind power cost will be approximately equal between 2026 and 2027 without considering the external cost of coal power.When considering the external cost of coal power, the time of equal cost is 6-8 years ahead of schedule.Then, based on the Bass model, the development process of coal power and wind power is analyzed, and it is found that wind power plays an irreplaceable role in the future power structure of our country.It is found that the rise of coal price has a positive effect on the increase of wind power demand.This study provides the basis for the government to formulate policies on the power problem, provides advice for the power generation enterprises and investors to make decisions, and makes the electric power industry of our country develop continuously, and realizes the coordinated development of economy, energy, electricity and environment in our country at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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