本文選題：時(shí)間序列　切入點(diǎn)：水蓄冷　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水蓄冷作為緩解電力系統(tǒng)壓力的一種有效手段,對(duì)于削峰填谷有著至關(guān)重要的作用。目前我國水蓄冷空調(diào)技術(shù)雖然不斷發(fā)展普及,但對(duì)水蓄冷監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)處理的研究還尚未開始。水蓄冷運(yùn)行過程中,短時(shí)間內(nèi)就會(huì)積累大量的監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。如何利用這些監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)水蓄冷空調(diào)的狀態(tài)進(jìn)行高效、準(zhǔn)確的評(píng)估,并及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)水蓄冷蓄能設(shè)備的冷量負(fù)荷,已成為新的研究課題。論文以時(shí)間序列分析為基礎(chǔ),依次對(duì)水蓄冷運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)做預(yù)處理、異常檢測(cè)和趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)分析,三個(gè)過程相互銜接配合共同構(gòu)成了水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)模型。本文首先對(duì)水蓄冷蓄能罐的運(yùn)行原理簡(jiǎn)單介紹。其次對(duì)水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)模型深入研究:預(yù)處理部分,引入基于數(shù)據(jù)相對(duì)變化率的孤立點(diǎn)識(shí)別和基于最相似近鄰法的空缺值填補(bǔ),為異常檢測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)提供數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ);異常檢測(cè)部分,利用時(shí)間序列的相似性,在局部異常因子(LOF)的基礎(chǔ)上,采用改進(jìn)的局部異常系數(shù)(LOC)來衡量異常,對(duì)水蓄冷監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行異常檢測(cè)分析,提高算法性能;負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)部分,應(yīng)用類比合成算法,從歷史數(shù)據(jù)集中查詢出最為相似的類比序列,從而生成預(yù)測(cè)。最后,通過整合所有算法,以Matlab為平臺(tái)搭建了基于時(shí)間序列分析的水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng),并使用北京某軟件園實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,結(jié)論與實(shí)際情況相符,驗(yàn)證了時(shí)間序列分析在水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)的應(yīng)用切實(shí)可行。此外,基于以上算法可以構(gòu)建監(jiān)測(cè)功能界面,實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)并顯示水蓄冷的運(yùn)行狀態(tài),實(shí)現(xiàn)異常報(bào)警功能,形成集監(jiān)測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)于一體的水蓄冷分析系統(tǒng)。最后對(duì)該系統(tǒng)夏季運(yùn)行情況做經(jīng)濟(jì)性分析,得出比常規(guī)系統(tǒng)節(jié)省21萬元的結(jié)論。時(shí)間序列在水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)方面的應(yīng)用為水蓄冷空調(diào)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)另辟蹊徑,克服人工檢測(cè)的低效性。本文構(gòu)建的水蓄冷運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)分析方法對(duì)于水蓄冷性能監(jiān)測(cè)是一種新的嘗試與探索。
[Abstract]:As an effective means to relieve the pressure of power system, water storage plays an important role in cutting the peak and filling the valley. At present, although the technology of water storage and air conditioning is developing and popularizing in our country, However, the research on the data processing of water storage monitoring has not yet begun. During the operation of water storage, a large amount of monitoring data will be accumulated in a short period of time. How to use these monitoring data to evaluate the state of water storage air conditioning efficiently and accurately, It has become a new research topic to predict the cooling load of water storage equipment in time and accurately. Based on the time series analysis, the paper makes preprocessing, anomaly detection and trend prediction analysis of the water storage operation data in turn. The three processes are connected with each other to form the monitoring model of water storage operation. Firstly, this paper introduces the operation principle of water storage storage tank. Secondly, the monitoring model of water storage operation is deeply studied. In order to provide data basis for anomaly detection and prediction, outlier recognition based on relative change rate of data and vacancy value based on most similar nearest neighbor method are introduced. Based on the local anomaly factor (LOF), the improved local anomaly coefficient (LOC) is used to measure the anomaly, and the abnormal detection and analysis of the monitoring data of water storage are carried out to improve the performance of the algorithm. By querying the most similar analogical sequence from the historical data set, the prediction is generated. Finally, by integrating all the algorithms, a monitoring system of water storage and cold storage operation based on time series analysis is built on the platform of Matlab. The model is verified by using the real-time monitoring data of a software park in Beijing. The conclusion is in accordance with the actual situation, and the application of time series analysis in the monitoring of water storage operation is proved to be feasible. Based on the above algorithm, the monitoring function interface can be constructed, the running state of water storage can be monitored and displayed in real time, and the abnormal alarm function can be realized. A water storage analysis system is formed, which integrates monitoring and prediction. Finally, the economic analysis of the system in summer is made. The conclusion is that 210000 yuan is saved compared with the conventional system. The application of time series in the monitoring data of water storage operation is a new way to monitor the operation of water storage air conditioning system. In order to overcome the inefficiency of manual detection, the method of monitoring and analyzing the operation of water storage is a new attempt and exploration for monitoring the performance of water storage.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM73;TB657.2

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