本文選題：現狀分析　切入點：負荷預測　出處：《廈門理工學院》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近幾年福清市江陰鎮(zhèn)經濟發(fā)展迅速,中低壓配電網存在局部結構薄弱、供電能力不足的問題,對全鎮(zhèn)的經濟發(fā)展造成了影響。本文以江陰鎮(zhèn)中低壓配電網“十三五”規(guī)劃為研究對象,通過電網現狀調查分析、電力負荷預測、配電網規(guī)劃改造等設計了完整的江陰鎮(zhèn)“十三五”中低壓配電網規(guī)劃方案。本文主要工作如下:(1)對江陰鎮(zhèn)社會經濟發(fā)展及電網各個環(huán)節(jié)現狀進行了分析總結,研究了江陰鎮(zhèn)中低壓配電網存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)和問題;采用綜合增長率法、產值單耗法、人均綜合用電指標法對江陰鎮(zhèn)“十三五”期間的全社會用電量及最大用電負荷進行了預測;重點采用灰色預測法對江陰鎮(zhèn)的最大負荷進行了預測。(2)為了解決灰色預測法對原始數據進行預測時存在較大誤差問題,采用了滑動平均法對原始數據進行修正,并采用一元線性回歸模型對灰色預測法的殘差進行修正,以此來改進灰色預測法。通過對比江陰鎮(zhèn)過去十年最大負荷數據的預測結果,證明改進后的灰色預測法更加精確有效。采用改進的灰色預測法對江陰鎮(zhèn)“十三五”的電力負荷進行了預測。(3)為了提升改造方案的總體經濟效益,提出了一種基于變壓器全壽命周期成本的配變臺區(qū)改造策略,在綜合考慮外部供電可靠率及變壓器重過載情況后,對變壓器的全壽命周期成本做出評估;提出以迫切系數作為配變臺區(qū)改造次序的依據,通過實例驗證證明了該方法的有效性,并將其應用到本規(guī)劃中來。(4)根據配網規(guī)劃和改造的基本原則,針對江陰鎮(zhèn)中低壓配電網存在的各種問題,設計了江陰鎮(zhèn)中低壓配網建設改造的具體規(guī)劃方案。本規(guī)劃方案實施后,江陰鎮(zhèn)配電網的供電可靠率由99.83%可提高至99.95%,10kV及以下綜合線損率由3.56%可降至3.45%,綜合電壓合格率由99.85%可提高至99.95%,戶均配變容量從2.08kVA/戶可提高到3.86kVA/戶。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economy of Jiangyin Town, Fuqing City, has developed rapidly, and there are problems of weak local structure and insufficient power supply capacity in the medium-low voltage distribution network. This paper takes Jiangyin town middle and low voltage distribution network "13th Five-Year Plan" as the research object, through the investigation and analysis of the current situation of the power network, the power load forecasting, Distribution network planning and transformation have designed a complete plan for Jiangyin Town's "13th Five-Year Plan" medium and low voltage distribution network. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) the social and economic development of Jiangyin Town and the current situation of each link of the power network are analyzed and summarized. The weak links and problems in Jiangyin medium and low voltage distribution network are studied, and the comprehensive growth rate method and output value unit consumption method are adopted. The per capita comprehensive power consumption index method is used to forecast the whole society's electricity consumption and the maximum electric load during the 13th Five-Year Plan period of Jiangyin Town. In order to solve the problem of large error in forecasting original data by grey forecasting method, the sliding average method is used to correct the original data. In order to improve the grey forecasting method, the residual error of the grey forecasting method is modified by using the univariate linear regression model. By comparing the forecast results of the maximum load data of the past ten years in Jiangyin Town, It is proved that the improved grey forecasting method is more accurate and effective. The improved grey forecasting method is used to forecast the electric power load of Jiangyin Town in the 13th Five-Year Plan. In this paper, a transformation strategy based on the life-cycle cost of transformer is proposed. After considering the reliability of external power supply and the overloading of transformer, the life-cycle cost of transformer is evaluated. The urgent coefficient is used as the basis for the transformation order of distribution transformer station area. The effectiveness of the method is proved by an example, and applied to this program. (4) according to the basic principles of distribution network planning and transformation, In view of the various problems existing in the medium and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town, the concrete planning scheme for the construction and transformation of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town is designed. The reliability of power supply in Jiangyin distribution network can be increased from 99.83% to 99.9510kV and below from 3.56% to 3.45. the pass rate of comprehensive voltage can be increased from 99.85% to 99.95. the average household distribution capacity can be increased from 2.08kVA / household to 3.86kVA / household.
【學位授予單位】：廈門理工學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM715

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