本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電力系統(tǒng) 風(fēng)力發(fā)電 概率區(qū)間潮流 證據(jù)理論 基本可信度分配 區(qū)間優(yōu)化法　出處：《中國(guó)電機(jī)工程學(xué)報(bào)》2017年19期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：該文基于證據(jù)理論構(gòu)造了風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的隨機(jī)出力和不確定節(jié)點(diǎn)負(fù)荷的基本可信度分配,提出了一種電力系統(tǒng)概率區(qū)間潮流(probabilistic interval power flow,PIPF)模型和算法。通過(guò)構(gòu)建輸入不確定量的多維聯(lián)合可信度分配,將概率區(qū)間潮流問(wèn)題轉(zhuǎn)化為若干個(gè)區(qū)間潮流問(wèn)題。并采用區(qū)間優(yōu)化法求解區(qū)間潮流,獲得潮流狀態(tài)量的區(qū)間極值,最終合成了潮流變量的似然累積概率分布和信任累積概率分布。IEEE 30、118標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系統(tǒng)的計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,所提的概率區(qū)間潮流把概率潮流和區(qū)間潮流統(tǒng)一于一個(gè)模型,獲得潮流變量的似然和信任累積概率分布,可用以判斷變量取值的最大和最小概率,對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行有良好的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the evidence theory, this paper constructs the stochastic output force and the basic reliability distribution of the uncertain node load of the wind farm. In this paper, a probabilistic interval power flow (PIPF) model and algorithm for power system probabilistic interval power flows are proposed. The probabilistic interval power flow problem is transformed into several interval power flow problems, and interval optimization method is used to solve interval power flow, and the interval extremum of power flow state is obtained. Finally, the probabilistic cumulative probability distribution and trust cumulative probability distribution of the power flow variables are synthesized. The results of the IEEE 30,118 standard system show that the proposed probabilistic interval power flow unifies the probabilistic power flow and the interval power flow into a single model. The probability distributions of likelihood and trust accumulation of power flow variables are obtained, which can be used to judge the maximum and minimum probabilities of variables, and have a good guiding significance for the operation of power systems.
【作者單位】： 廣西電力系統(tǒng)最優(yōu)化與節(jié)能技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(廣西大學(xué));
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(973計(jì)劃)(2013CB 228205) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51667003)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM614;TM744
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本文編號(hào)：1518658