本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電力系統(tǒng) 不確定性信息 隨機集 概率分布 風險評估 Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)理論　出處：《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2017年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：針對電力系統(tǒng)中故障特征和運行信息的不確定性,提出了基于隨機集理論的不確定信息的表示與建模方法。該方法考慮元件故障發(fā)生的不確定性和負荷波動的隨機性,將描述電網(wǎng)元件參數(shù)和節(jié)點負荷信息的變量轉(zhuǎn)換為其隨機集形式。基于隨機集擴展準則,通過區(qū)間潮流計算將參數(shù)的不確定性映射到風險指標的不確定性,并利用隨機集的信任測度和似真測度構(gòu)造風險指標的上下累積概率分布函數(shù)�；谧C據(jù)理論的隨機集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)組合規(guī)則對所有系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)下獲得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)進行融合,獲得系統(tǒng)風險水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系統(tǒng)的計算結(jié)果證明了該方法的合理性。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the uncertainty of fault characteristics and operation information in power system. A method of representation and modeling of uncertain information based on stochastic set theory is proposed, which takes into account the uncertainty of component failure and the randomness of load fluctuation. The variables describing the network component parameters and node load information are transformed into the random set form. Based on the random set expansion criterion, the uncertainty of the parameters is mapped to the uncertainty of the risk index by interval power flow calculation. Using the trust measure and the quasi-true measure of the random set, the cumulative probability distribution function of the risk index is constructed, and the stochastic set description based on the evidence theory is presented. The basic probability assignment is allocated to all the system states by using the Dempster-Shafer evidence combination rule. The consistency description of system risk level is obtained. The calculation results of IEEE 39 example system prove the rationality of this method.
【作者單位】： 華北電力大學電氣與電子工程學院;國網(wǎng)寧夏電力公司電力科學研究院;
【基金】：國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2016YFB0900501)~~
【分類號】：TM732
【正文快照】： 0引言電力系統(tǒng)的運行目的是將符合電能質(zhì)量標準的電力傳送給用戶,并兼顧其可靠性和經(jīng)濟性。但是,隨著電力系統(tǒng)互聯(lián)程度的不斷加深,多種內(nèi)外部因素都會對電力系統(tǒng)的運行可靠性產(chǎn)生影響,導致系統(tǒng)故障事故頻繁發(fā)生,使得系統(tǒng)運行風險日益嚴重。因此,為降低電力系統(tǒng)運行風險,需要研，

本文編號：1484164