本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電力系統(tǒng) 不確定性信息 隨機(jī)集 概率分布 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)理論　出處：《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2017年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)中故障特征和運(yùn)行信息的不確定性,提出了基于隨機(jī)集理論的不確定信息的表示與建模方法。該方法考慮元件故障發(fā)生的不確定性和負(fù)荷波動(dòng)的隨機(jī)性,將描述電網(wǎng)元件參數(shù)和節(jié)點(diǎn)負(fù)荷信息的變量轉(zhuǎn)換為其隨機(jī)集形式�；陔S機(jī)集擴(kuò)展準(zhǔn)則,通過(guò)區(qū)間潮流計(jì)算將參數(shù)的不確定性映射到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的不確定性,并利用隨機(jī)集的信任測(cè)度和似真測(cè)度構(gòu)造風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的上下累積概率分布函數(shù)�；谧C據(jù)理論的隨機(jī)集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)組合規(guī)則對(duì)所有系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)下獲得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)進(jìn)行融合,獲得系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系統(tǒng)的計(jì)算結(jié)果證明了該方法的合理性。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the uncertainty of fault characteristics and operation information in power system. A method of representation and modeling of uncertain information based on stochastic set theory is proposed, which takes into account the uncertainty of component failure and the randomness of load fluctuation. The variables describing the network component parameters and node load information are transformed into the random set form. Based on the random set expansion criterion, the uncertainty of the parameters is mapped to the uncertainty of the risk index by interval power flow calculation. Using the trust measure and the quasi-true measure of the random set, the cumulative probability distribution function of the risk index is constructed, and the stochastic set description based on the evidence theory is presented. The basic probability assignment is allocated to all the system states by using the Dempster-Shafer evidence combination rule. The consistency description of system risk level is obtained. The calculation results of IEEE 39 example system prove the rationality of this method.
【作者單位】： 華北電力大學(xué)電氣與電子工程學(xué)院;國(guó)網(wǎng)寧夏電力公司電力科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFB0900501)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM732
【正文快照】： 0引言電力系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行目的是將符合電能質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的電力傳送給用戶,并兼顧其可靠性和經(jīng)濟(jì)性。但是,隨著電力系統(tǒng)互聯(lián)程度的不斷加深,多種內(nèi)外部因素都會(huì)對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性產(chǎn)生影響,導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)故障事故頻繁發(fā)生,使得系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益嚴(yán)重。因此,為降低電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要研，

本文編號(hào)：1484164