本文關(guān)鍵詞： 數(shù)據(jù)挖掘 農(nóng)村電網(wǎng) 負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè) BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：電力負(fù)荷是指一個(gè)地區(qū)對(duì)電力和電量的消費(fèi)的情況。而農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)是指從已知的農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)發(fā)展和電力系統(tǒng)需求出發(fā),考慮農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟(jì)、氣候和特殊事件等諸多因素,通過(guò)對(duì)農(nóng)網(wǎng)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的分析和研究,探索農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)各參數(shù)之間內(nèi)在聯(lián)系和發(fā)展規(guī)律,以未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和氣候預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為依據(jù),對(duì)未來(lái)農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)需求做出估計(jì)和預(yù)測(cè)。農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)是農(nóng)網(wǎng)管理系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,它所提供的未來(lái)負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)農(nóng)網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的控制,運(yùn)行和計(jì)劃極為重要。農(nóng)網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)由于設(shè)備比較陳舊,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施薄弱,因而系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行要求事先對(duì)負(fù)荷進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),才能早做準(zhǔn)備,將設(shè)備資源進(jìn)行合理調(diào)配,以保證農(nóng)村用電安全可靠。因考慮到電力負(fù)荷的區(qū)域特性,本文從年負(fù)荷、月負(fù)荷和日負(fù)荷三個(gè)方面分析了樅陽(yáng)縣地區(qū)十二五期間負(fù)荷增長(zhǎng)的特性,并著重分析了負(fù)荷的氣象敏感性和重大節(jié)假日影響,通過(guò)這些分析,得出了農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷的一般特性。在分析電力負(fù)荷的基礎(chǔ)上,利用點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)倍比法、一元線性回歸法和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)模型對(duì)樅陽(yáng)縣地區(qū)負(fù)荷進(jìn)行短期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)三種負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)模型精度進(jìn)行對(duì)比,得出適合農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)的短期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)模型。其結(jié)果對(duì)農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)企業(yè)做好“迎峰度夏”和“迎峰度冬”的兩項(xiàng)重點(diǎn)工作有較好的參考意義。
[Abstract]:Power load refers to the consumption of electricity and electricity in a region, while the load forecasting of rural power grid refers to the consideration of rural economy from the known rural economy, social development and the demand of power system. Through the analysis and study of the historical data of rural power grid, the inherent relationship and development law among the parameters of rural power grid system are explored, which is based on the future economic and climate prediction results. Rural power grid load forecasting is an important part of the rural power network management system, it provides future load data, the control of rural power network system. It is very important to run and plan. Because the equipment is old and the infrastructure is weak, the stable operation of the system requires forecasting the load in advance so as to prepare and allocate the equipment resources reasonably. In order to ensure the safety and reliability of rural power consumption, considering the regional characteristics of power load, this paper analyzes the characteristics of load growth in Zongyang County during the 12th Five-Year Plan period from three aspects: annual load, monthly load and daily load. Through these analyses, the general characteristics of the rural power grid load are obtained. Based on the analysis of the power load, the point-to-point ratio method is used. The linear regression method and BP neural network model are used to forecast the short-term load in Zongyang county, and the accuracy of the three load forecasting models is compared. A short-term load forecasting model suitable for rural power grid is obtained. The results have a good reference significance for rural power grid enterprises to do the two key work of "summering peak" and "winter kurtosis".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TM715;TP311.13

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