埃及國(guó)家公路項(xiàng)目是一個(gè)大型的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,當(dāng)前的目標(biāo)是在升級(jí)2500公里公路網(wǎng)的同時(shí),新建4000公里的公路,以滿(mǎn)足當(dāng)今人們的出行需求。高速公路建設(shè)和維護(hù)項(xiàng)目的激增,導(dǎo)致作業(yè)區(qū)域數(shù)量顯著增加,使得交通環(huán)境的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增大。在建設(shè)和養(yǎng)護(hù)作業(yè)中,確保交通環(huán)境的安全和效率非常重要,因此,辨識(shí)與施工區(qū)交通事故傷害程度相關(guān)的主要因素并研究其特征就變得十分必要。出于研究目的,本文采集了2010至2016年間發(fā)生在埃及公路養(yǎng)護(hù)和修復(fù)工程施工區(qū)的交通事故數(shù)據(jù),用于分析事故的嚴(yán)重程度。數(shù)據(jù)分析按照以下步驟進(jìn)行。首先,運(yùn)用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析來(lái)尋找該區(qū)域的事故特征。然后通過(guò)因子分析,鑒別對(duì)施工區(qū)事故有影響的主要因素,并計(jì)算各因素的權(quán)重,構(gòu)建ordered probit模型以測(cè)量各因子的顯著性。利用Separate mixed logit模型來(lái)鑒別對(duì)日間和夜間事故的嚴(yán)重程度有顯著影響的因素。最后,使用ordered probit對(duì)單一車(chē)輛事故和多車(chē)事故數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行有序概率回歸分析,找出影響事故嚴(yán)重程度的重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。根據(jù)分析結(jié)果,性別、道路特征和行車(chē)速度是造成施工區(qū)追尾事故的最主要因素。此外,施工區(qū)事故中52.6%... 

【文章來(lái)源】：西南交通大學(xué)四川省 211工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：131 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
Abstract
摘要
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Problem statement
    1.3 Research objectives
    1.4 Thesis organization
Chapter 2 Literature Review
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Previous researches on characteristics of work zone crashes
    2.3 Previous researches on injury severity modeling
    2.4 Previous researches on work zone rear-end crashes
    2.5 Injury severity of single and multi-vehicle crashes
    2.6 Nighttime and daytime crashes
    2.7 Factor analysis method
Chapter 3 Data Collection and Methodology
    3.1 Data
    3.2 Data Analysis
        3.2.1 Test of independence
    3.3 Factor analysis
    3.4 Work Zone crash severity model
        3.4.1 Pearson correlation factor
        3.4.2 Multicollinearity
        3.4.3 The mixed multinomial logit(MMNL)model
        3.4.4 Ordered probit modeling
Chapter 4 Results and Discussion
    4.1 Characteristics of work zone crashes
        4.1.1 Distribution of crashes by user related
        4.1.2 Distribution by crash severity
        4.1.3 Distribution by environment conditions factor
    4.2 Analysis of interrelated crash factors
        4.2.1 Introduction
        4.2.2 Test of independence results
    4.3 Work zone crashes
        4.3.1 Factor analysis
        4.3.2 Estimations of the ordered probit model
    4.4 Work zone rear-end crashes
        4.4.1 Factor analysis
        4.4.2 Model estimation results
    4.5 Work zone crash injury severity models
        4.5.1 Crash severity modeling for nighttime and daytime work zone crashes..
        4.5.2 Crash severity modeling for multi-vehicle work zone crashes
        4.5.3 Crash severity modeling for single-vehicle work zone crashes
Chapter 5 Conclusions& Recommendation
    5.1 Summary
    5.2 Conclusions
        5.2.1 Work zone characteristic conclusions
        5.2.2 Test of independence conclusions
        5.2.3 Factor analysis conclusions
        5.2.4 Modeling conclusions
    5.3 Recommendations
        5.3.1 Education
        5.3.2 Traffic control devices
        5.3.3 Police crash report
        5.3.4 Future research direction
Acknowledgement
References
Appendix A-Sample of Pearson correlation matrix:nighttime work zone crashes
    Sample of Pearson correlation matrix:multi-vehicles work zone crashes
    Sample of Variance Inflation Factor(VIF)test
Appendix B-Analysis of interrelated crash factors
Appendix C-Factor analysis for Rear-end crashes
Published papers during degree period



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