【摘要】：近年來,長江航運事業(yè)不斷發(fā)展壯大,危險貨物水上運輸日益頻繁,并且危險貨物種類日趨復(fù)雜,再加上運輸行業(yè)的不規(guī)范,使得水上危險貨物運輸風(fēng)險凸顯。水上危險貨物運輸安全事故時有發(fā)生,造成的不僅是人身、財產(chǎn)的損失,更會威脅到廣大沿江人民群眾的利益,導(dǎo)致社會性的問題。因此對于長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)督者,如何利用政策工具提升管理效能,更好地服務(wù)于長江航運事業(yè)的綠色、健康、平安成為了當(dāng)前改革發(fā)展的熱點。為了適應(yīng)新時期的改革發(fā)展要求,本文在研究長江危險貨物運輸政策工具的基礎(chǔ)上,運用成熟度模型對當(dāng)前監(jiān)管成熟度水平進行了評判,結(jié)果顯示處于規(guī)范級別,表明目前的安全監(jiān)管擁有較高的監(jiān)管水平;同時基于生產(chǎn)理論微觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)對廠商的基本假定,運用“博弈”理論構(gòu)建了監(jiān)管雙方的演化博弈模型,并通過模擬仿真,對演化策略進行了動態(tài)推演,結(jié)果展現(xiàn)出了成熟的策略不斷被模仿,雙方的博弈不斷演化成熟,在一定條件下能夠達到一定的穩(wěn)態(tài)。最后基于上述研究,提出了危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管策略。具體如下:(1)通過對海事安全監(jiān)管、船舶運輸安全等方面的研究進行比對和分析,指出危險貨物運輸這一特殊情形在當(dāng)前研究中的趨勢。(2)對當(dāng)前的長江危險貨物運輸基本參數(shù)進行了統(tǒng)計分析,從人-船-環(huán)境-管理四維對貨物運輸?shù)氖鹿手乱蜻M行分析,闡釋了當(dāng)前長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管政策工具。(3)運用網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論構(gòu)建了危險貨物航運復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,分析了危險貨物運輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓?fù)涮匦?結(jié)果顯示了危險貨物運輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的小世界特性;在此基礎(chǔ)上研究了與危險貨物運輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)對應(yīng)的監(jiān)管網(wǎng)絡(luò)成熟度,運用成熟度管理理論構(gòu)建了長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管成熟度模型。并運用SPSS數(shù)理統(tǒng)計軟件對進行了實例驗算。(4)基于生產(chǎn)理論微觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)對廠商的基本假定,運用博弈理論構(gòu)建了監(jiān)管雙方的演化博弈模型,并運用Matlab編程對模型進行了仿真,驗證了監(jiān)管雙方的博弈演化關(guān)系。(5)基于以上幾方面的研究,從政策目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)角度提出了長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管的體制機制創(chuàng)新策略,豐富了長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管研究視角,為新形勢下的長江危險貨物運輸安全監(jiān)管模式的轉(zhuǎn)變提供了重要參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the shipping industry of the Yangtze River has been developing and growing, the water transport of dangerous goods is becoming more and more frequent, and the types of dangerous goods are becoming more and more complex. Coupled with the non-standard transportation industry, the risk of the transport of dangerous goods on water is prominent. Safety accidents in the transport of dangerous goods on water occur from time to time, which not only cause the loss of personal and property, but also threaten the interests of the broad masses of the people along the river and lead to social problems. Therefore, for the safety supervisors of dangerous goods transportation in the Yangtze River, how to use policy tools to improve the management efficiency and better serve the green, healthy and safe shipping cause of the Yangtze River has become the hot spot of reform and development at present. In order to meet the requirements of the reform and development in the new period, based on the study of the Yangtze River dangerous goods transport policy tools, this paper uses the maturity model to evaluate the current regulatory maturity level. The results show that the current safety supervision has a high level of supervision. At the same time, based on the basic assumption of production theory microeconomics on manufacturers, the evolutionary game model of regulatory parties is constructed by using game theory, and the evolution strategy is dynamically deduced through simulation. The results show that the mature strategy is constantly imitated, the game between the two sides is constantly evolved and mature, and a certain steady state can be achieved under certain conditions. Finally, based on the above research, the safety supervision strategy of dangerous goods transportation is put forward. The details are as follows: (1) through the comparison and analysis of the research on maritime safety supervision and ship transport safety, this paper points out the trend of the special situation of dangerous goods transportation in the current research. (2) the basic parameters of dangerous goods transportation in the Yangtze River are statistically analyzed, and the causes of accidents in cargo transportation are analyzed from the four dimensions of man-ship-environment-management. This paper explains the current regulatory policy tools for the safety of dangerous goods transportation in the Yangtze River. (3) the complex network model of dangerous goods shipping is constructed by using the network theory, and the topological characteristics of the dangerous goods transportation network are analyzed, and the results show the small world characteristics of the dangerous goods transportation network. On this basis, the maturity of the regulatory network corresponding to the dangerous goods transportation network is studied, and the maturity model of the Yangtze River dangerous goods transportation safety supervision is constructed by using the maturity management theory. The example is checked by SPSS mathematical statistics software. (4) based on the basic assumption of production theory microeconomics to manufacturers, the evolutionary game model of regulatory parties is constructed by using game theory, and the model is simulated by Matlab programming to verify the game evolution relationship between supervisors and supervisors. (5) based on the above research, This paper puts forward the system and mechanism innovation strategy of the Yangtze River dangerous goods transportation safety supervision from the angle of realizing the policy goal, enriches the research angle of the Yangtze River dangerous goods transportation safety supervision, and provides an important reference for the transformation of the Yangtze River dangerous goods transportation safety supervision mode under the new situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U698.3

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