基于海洋平臺碰撞事故的LNG船泄露風險評估
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-10 21:03
【摘要】：在航行過程中，船舶發(fā)生海損事故是難免的。在猛烈的沖擊作用下，LNG船舷側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)遭受嚴重損傷，引發(fā)LNG泄露事故。泄露的LNG在空氣中迅速形成重氣云團，在燃燒爆炸范圍，一旦遇到點火源，即刻發(fā)生燃燒，，極有可能升級為火災、爆炸事故，進一步加劇船體結(jié)構(gòu)的破損，不僅會對人員及設備的安全構(gòu)成威脅，還對環(huán)境形成污染。對LNG船進行風險評估工作，可以科學預測事故發(fā)生的概率以及事故產(chǎn)生的后果。在船舶與海洋工程領域，定量風險評估技術越來越受到人們的關注，主要是因為該技術能深刻反映風險本質(zhì)，對提高LNG船營運過程中的安全性具有重要意義，為設計降低LNG船泄露的可能性提供了較為可靠的理論依據(jù)。 本文在風險評估理論的基礎上，對風險識別進行了簡單介紹；對計算事故發(fā)生率的方法進行探討分析，并做相應的計算；在研究故障樹(FT)分析方法的基礎上，引入了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(BN)定量分析導致碰撞事故發(fā)生的人為原因。 本文還對LNG船舷側(cè)采用復合夾層結(jié)構(gòu)來增強其耐撞性進行了研究，提出了降低風險后果的措施；最后將模糊綜合評判法(FCE)與LNG船泄露風險評估相結(jié)合，實現(xiàn)了與海洋平臺碰撞LNG船泄露的模糊綜合評判。 本文主要工作及結(jié)論如下： (1)分析了在海洋工程風險評估領域目前國內(nèi)外研究進展，闡述了風險評估的理論基礎，從個人風險、社會風險、環(huán)境風險三方面進行風險衡量，同時探討風險可接受準則。 (2)對風險識別進行了簡單的介紹，比較了各種常用風險評估方法的優(yōu)缺點，分析事故后果對人員、設施的產(chǎn)生的影響，提出了控制風險的措施。 (3)基于二項分布預測了LNG船年度碰撞事故發(fā)生概率；參考DNV過往船只與海洋平臺發(fā)生碰撞風險的分析方法，利用程序計算了LNG船處于不同角度時與海洋平臺發(fā)生碰撞的概率，發(fā)現(xiàn)LNG船碰撞事故發(fā)生的概率隨角度的增大呈指數(shù)增長，計算結(jié)果與統(tǒng)計資料基本一致。同時在研究故障樹(FT)分析方法的基礎上，引入了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(BN)定量分析導致碰撞事故發(fā)生的人為原因，并提出了降低事故后果的措施。 (4)本文提出了一種復合夾層結(jié)構(gòu)形式，用該結(jié)構(gòu)替代LNG船原有的雙舷側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)，并借助非線性有限元分析軟件MSC.Dytran對此進行模擬計算。與傳統(tǒng)的鋼結(jié)構(gòu)相比，復合夾層結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢比較明顯，如：結(jié)構(gòu)的承載能力、抗沖擊能力好，具有優(yōu)良的耐撞性能、結(jié)構(gòu)形式簡單、結(jié)構(gòu)本身較輕等，是降低風險后果的有效措施之一。 (5)在模糊綜合評判理論的基礎上，運用層次分析法，引入泄露氣體量、LNG特性、天氣海況、LNG船狀及人員狀況(距風險源距離)等風險影響因素，計算了各影響因素(參數(shù))的權重系數(shù)，對LNG船泄露風險的進行模糊綜合評判。
[Abstract]:In the course of sailing, it is inevitable that there will be an average accident on the ship. Under the severe impact, the side structure of LNG ship suffered serious damage, causing LNG leakage accident. The leaked LNG rapidly forms heavy gas clouds in the air. In the range of combustion and explosion, once a source of ignition is encountered, combustion occurs immediately, which is likely to escalate into a fire and explosion accident, thus further aggravating the damage of the hull structure. It will not only threaten the safety of personnel and equipment, but also pollute the environment. The risk assessment of LNG ship can predict the probability of accident and the consequence of accident scientifically. In the field of ship and marine engineering, quantitative risk assessment technology has been paid more and more attention, mainly because it can reflect the nature of risk deeply, and it is of great significance to improve the safety of LNG ship operation. It provides a reliable theoretical basis for the design of reducing the possibility of LNG ship leakage. Based on the theory of risk assessment, this paper briefly introduces the risk identification, discusses and analyzes the method of calculating the accident incidence, and makes the corresponding calculation. Based on the study of fault tree (FT) analysis method, Bayesian network (BN) is introduced to quantitatively analyze the man-made causes of collision accidents. In this paper, the use of composite sandwich structure on the side of LNG ship to enhance its crashworthiness is also studied, and the measures to reduce the risk consequences are put forward. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE) and LNG ship leakage risk assessment are combined to realize the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of LNG ship leakage in collision with offshore platform. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the research progress in the field of marine engineering risk assessment at home and abroad is analyzed, and the theoretical basis of risk assessment, including individual risk and social risk, is expounded. Environmental risk three aspects of risk measurement, while exploring the risk acceptable criteria. (2) the paper briefly introduces the risk identification, compares the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of commonly used risk assessment methods, analyzes the impact of the accident consequences on the personnel and facilities, and puts forward the measures to control the risk. (3) based on binomial distribution, the probability of annual collision accident of LNG ship is predicted. Referring to the analysis method of collision risk between DNV ship and offshore platform, the probability of collision between LNG ship and offshore platform at different angles is calculated by program. It is found that the probability of LNG collision increases exponentially with the increase of angle, and the calculated results are basically consistent with the statistical data. At the same time, on the basis of studying the fault tree (FT) analysis method, the Bayesian network (BN) is introduced to quantitatively analyze the man-made cause of the collision accident, and the measures to reduce the accident consequence are put forward. (4) in this paper, a kind of composite sandwich structure is proposed, which is used to replace the original double-side structure of LNG ship, and it is simulated and calculated with the help of nonlinear finite element analysis software MSC.Dytran. Compared with the traditional steel structure, the composite sandwich structure has obvious advantages, such as the bearing capacity of the structure, the good impact resistance, the excellent impact resistance, the simple form of the structure, the lighter structure itself, and so on. It is one of the effective measures to reduce the risk consequences. (5) on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk factors such as leakage gas, LNG characteristics, weather and sea conditions, LNG ship shape and personnel status (distance from risk source) are introduced. The weight coefficient of each influencing factor (parameter) is calculated, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the leakage risk of LNG ship is carried out.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698
本文編號：2438018
[Abstract]:In the course of sailing, it is inevitable that there will be an average accident on the ship. Under the severe impact, the side structure of LNG ship suffered serious damage, causing LNG leakage accident. The leaked LNG rapidly forms heavy gas clouds in the air. In the range of combustion and explosion, once a source of ignition is encountered, combustion occurs immediately, which is likely to escalate into a fire and explosion accident, thus further aggravating the damage of the hull structure. It will not only threaten the safety of personnel and equipment, but also pollute the environment. The risk assessment of LNG ship can predict the probability of accident and the consequence of accident scientifically. In the field of ship and marine engineering, quantitative risk assessment technology has been paid more and more attention, mainly because it can reflect the nature of risk deeply, and it is of great significance to improve the safety of LNG ship operation. It provides a reliable theoretical basis for the design of reducing the possibility of LNG ship leakage. Based on the theory of risk assessment, this paper briefly introduces the risk identification, discusses and analyzes the method of calculating the accident incidence, and makes the corresponding calculation. Based on the study of fault tree (FT) analysis method, Bayesian network (BN) is introduced to quantitatively analyze the man-made causes of collision accidents. In this paper, the use of composite sandwich structure on the side of LNG ship to enhance its crashworthiness is also studied, and the measures to reduce the risk consequences are put forward. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE) and LNG ship leakage risk assessment are combined to realize the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of LNG ship leakage in collision with offshore platform. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the research progress in the field of marine engineering risk assessment at home and abroad is analyzed, and the theoretical basis of risk assessment, including individual risk and social risk, is expounded. Environmental risk three aspects of risk measurement, while exploring the risk acceptable criteria. (2) the paper briefly introduces the risk identification, compares the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of commonly used risk assessment methods, analyzes the impact of the accident consequences on the personnel and facilities, and puts forward the measures to control the risk. (3) based on binomial distribution, the probability of annual collision accident of LNG ship is predicted. Referring to the analysis method of collision risk between DNV ship and offshore platform, the probability of collision between LNG ship and offshore platform at different angles is calculated by program. It is found that the probability of LNG collision increases exponentially with the increase of angle, and the calculated results are basically consistent with the statistical data. At the same time, on the basis of studying the fault tree (FT) analysis method, the Bayesian network (BN) is introduced to quantitatively analyze the man-made cause of the collision accident, and the measures to reduce the accident consequence are put forward. (4) in this paper, a kind of composite sandwich structure is proposed, which is used to replace the original double-side structure of LNG ship, and it is simulated and calculated with the help of nonlinear finite element analysis software MSC.Dytran. Compared with the traditional steel structure, the composite sandwich structure has obvious advantages, such as the bearing capacity of the structure, the good impact resistance, the excellent impact resistance, the simple form of the structure, the lighter structure itself, and so on. It is one of the effective measures to reduce the risk consequences. (5) on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk factors such as leakage gas, LNG characteristics, weather and sea conditions, LNG ship shape and personnel status (distance from risk source) are introduced. The weight coefficient of each influencing factor (parameter) is calculated, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the leakage risk of LNG ship is carried out.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698
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