道路運輸氣體類危化品泄漏擴散及警戒范圍模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-06 07:08
【摘要】：氣體類�；肪哂卸拘�、易燃、易爆等危險特性,在運輸過程中一旦發(fā)生泄漏,極易引發(fā)中毒、火災、爆炸等事故,嚴重威脅事故發(fā)生地附近居民的生命和財產(chǎn)安全。危化品運輸車輛就像一個個移動的危險源,風險很大,因此在事故發(fā)生后,如何盡快確定事故警戒范圍,科學指導群眾疏散,有效開展應急救援顯得至關(guān)重要。本文以氣體類�；窞檠芯繉ο�,以毒性災害分析為研究重點,以浙江松陽縣液氯泄漏事故為案例背景,構(gòu)建模擬環(huán)境,運用ALOHA軟件模擬不同情境下液氯泄漏擴散態(tài)勢,分析由于擴散產(chǎn)生的危害影響范圍和由此而在應急救援過程中設立的警戒范圍,確定影響警戒范圍的關(guān)鍵因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上,分別應用EXCEL和SPSS統(tǒng)計軟件建立警戒范圍的一元回歸模型和多元回歸模型,并對模型有效性進行檢驗。主要研究內(nèi)容如下： (1)本文在查閱大量文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)氣體泄漏擴散的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,并結(jié)合泄漏源模型和氣體擴散模型,分析歸納泄漏影響因素和擴散影響因素,為后文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。 (2)通過網(wǎng)絡、項目調(diào)研等多種渠道收集整理了國內(nèi)219起氣體類�；沸孤┦鹿拾咐�,研究事故致因機理,并從事故發(fā)生原因、事故特征等方面進行統(tǒng)計分析,同時對泄漏事故引發(fā)災害進行深入分析。 (3)以浙江松陽縣液氯泄漏事故為背景搭建模擬環(huán)境,應用ALOHA軟件模擬不同情境下液氯泄漏擴散的警戒范圍,在此基礎(chǔ)上,找出影響警戒范圍的關(guān)鍵因素。 (4)應用EXCEL分別進行風速、溫度、泄漏孔徑與警戒范圍的一元回歸分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上,應用SPSS軟件建立警戒范圍的多元回歸模型,并對模型進行有效性檢驗。最后,從應急組織構(gòu)建角度給出了道路運輸液氯泄漏事故應急響應建議。
[Abstract]:Gas dangerous chemicals have toxic, flammable, explosive and other dangerous characteristics. Once leakage occurs in the transportation process, it is easy to cause poisoning, fire, explosion and other accidents, which seriously threaten the lives and property safety of residents near the place where the accident occurred. Dangerous chemicals transport vehicles are like moving dangerous sources, so it is very important to determine the warning range of accidents as soon as possible after the accident, guide the evacuation of the masses scientifically, and carry out the emergency rescue effectively. In this paper, gas hazardous chemicals are taken as the research object, toxicity hazard analysis as the research focus, and the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County, Zhejiang Province as the case background, the simulated environment is constructed, and the diffusion situation of liquid chlorine leakage in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. The range of hazard affected by diffusion and the warning range set up in the process of emergency rescue are analyzed, and the key factors affecting the range of warning are determined. On this basis, the EXCEL and SPSS statistical software are used to establish the single regression model and the multiple regression model of the alert range, and the validity of the model is tested. The main research contents are as follows: (1) on the basis of consulting a large number of literatures, this paper summarizes the research status of gas leakage and diffusion at home and abroad, and combines the leakage source model and the gas diffusion model. The influencing factors of leakage and diffusion are analyzed and summarized in order to lay a theoretical foundation for the following paper. (2) by means of network, project investigation and other channels, 219 cases of leakage accidents of dangerous chemicals in China have been collected and sorted out, and the mechanism of accidents has been studied, and statistical analysis has been carried out from the aspects of accident causes, accident characteristics, and so on. At the same time, the disaster caused by leakage accident is analyzed in depth. (3) taking the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County of Zhejiang Province as the background, the simulation environment is set up, and the warning range of liquid chlorine leakage and diffusion in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. On this basis, the key factors affecting the warning range are found out. (4) univariate regression analysis of wind speed, temperature, leak aperture and warning range is carried out by EXCEL. On this basis, the multiple regression model of warning range is established by using SPSS software, and the validity of the model is tested. Finally, suggestions for emergency response of liquid chlorine leakage in road transportation are given from the point of view of emergency organization.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U492.8;U492.336.3
本文編號：2435312
[Abstract]:Gas dangerous chemicals have toxic, flammable, explosive and other dangerous characteristics. Once leakage occurs in the transportation process, it is easy to cause poisoning, fire, explosion and other accidents, which seriously threaten the lives and property safety of residents near the place where the accident occurred. Dangerous chemicals transport vehicles are like moving dangerous sources, so it is very important to determine the warning range of accidents as soon as possible after the accident, guide the evacuation of the masses scientifically, and carry out the emergency rescue effectively. In this paper, gas hazardous chemicals are taken as the research object, toxicity hazard analysis as the research focus, and the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County, Zhejiang Province as the case background, the simulated environment is constructed, and the diffusion situation of liquid chlorine leakage in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. The range of hazard affected by diffusion and the warning range set up in the process of emergency rescue are analyzed, and the key factors affecting the range of warning are determined. On this basis, the EXCEL and SPSS statistical software are used to establish the single regression model and the multiple regression model of the alert range, and the validity of the model is tested. The main research contents are as follows: (1) on the basis of consulting a large number of literatures, this paper summarizes the research status of gas leakage and diffusion at home and abroad, and combines the leakage source model and the gas diffusion model. The influencing factors of leakage and diffusion are analyzed and summarized in order to lay a theoretical foundation for the following paper. (2) by means of network, project investigation and other channels, 219 cases of leakage accidents of dangerous chemicals in China have been collected and sorted out, and the mechanism of accidents has been studied, and statistical analysis has been carried out from the aspects of accident causes, accident characteristics, and so on. At the same time, the disaster caused by leakage accident is analyzed in depth. (3) taking the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County of Zhejiang Province as the background, the simulation environment is set up, and the warning range of liquid chlorine leakage and diffusion in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. On this basis, the key factors affecting the warning range are found out. (4) univariate regression analysis of wind speed, temperature, leak aperture and warning range is carried out by EXCEL. On this basis, the multiple regression model of warning range is established by using SPSS software, and the validity of the model is tested. Finally, suggestions for emergency response of liquid chlorine leakage in road transportation are given from the point of view of emergency organization.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U492.8;U492.336.3
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