【摘要】：隨著國家經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,人民的生活水平不斷提高,在發(fā)展過程中各種類型的安全災害事故時有發(fā)生,國家安全形勢面臨了前所未有的挑戰(zhàn),為了避免事故的發(fā)生或者降低發(fā)生的概率,降低事故后果的嚴重程度,安全評價是有效的應對途徑之一,安全評價方法的有效性和合理性直接決定了安全評價結果的準確性。本文在前人的研究基礎上,通過分析國內(nèi)外安全評價方法發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,提出并應用了全新的安全評價方法。由于大多數(shù)安全評價的目標為復雜的多屬性問題,因此建立評價指標體系,計算指標權重是一種有效的評價方法。隨著模糊數(shù)學在安全評價中應用,本文首先以三角模糊數(shù)為切入點,介紹了模糊對數(shù)優(yōu)先規(guī)劃理論和熵權法求解指標權重的原理和方法,通過分析兩種方法的優(yōu)缺點,進行了優(yōu)勢互補,提出來熵權-模糊對數(shù)優(yōu)先規(guī)劃理論,并且將新提出的權重計算方法和模糊綜合評價法結合,建立了全新的模糊綜合評價模型。為了闡述方法的有效性和合理性,本文以地下車庫火災風險評估為基本算例,分別運用層次分析法和模糊對數(shù)優(yōu)先規(guī)劃理論進行地下車庫火災風險指標的權重計算和重要度排序。對比兩者的計算過程和計算結果,不僅驗證了模糊對數(shù)優(yōu)先規(guī)劃理論的結果的有效性,而且通過優(yōu)缺點分析發(fā)現(xiàn)新提出的方法在決策過程中比層次分析法更加具有優(yōu)越性。最后將新提出的評價模型應用到工程實例當中,本文選取合肥化工園區(qū)綜合應急能力評價為例,首先通過化工園區(qū)應急能力的影響因素分析建立了評價指標體系,然后通過專家打分賦值,運用熵權-模糊優(yōu)先規(guī)劃理論進行各級影響指標的權重計算,最后應用模糊綜合評價模型進行綜合評價,最終該化工園區(qū)的評價結果為"良好",根據(jù)評價結果提出了對應的改進意見。
[Abstract]:With the development of national economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, various types of safety disasters and accidents occur from time to time in the process of development, and the national security situation is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to avoid the occurrence of accidents or reduce the probability of occurrence and reduce the severity of accident consequences, safety evaluation is one of the effective ways to deal with it. The validity and rationality of safety evaluation methods directly determine the accuracy of safety evaluation results. On the basis of previous research, this paper puts forward and applies a new safety evaluation method by analyzing the present situation of safety evaluation methods at home and abroad. Because the goal of most safety evaluation is complex multi-attribute problem, it is an effective evaluation method to establish evaluation index system and calculate index weight. With the application of fuzzy mathematics in safety evaluation, this paper firstly introduces the principle and method of fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory and entropy weight method to solve the index weight, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. The theory of entropy weight-fuzzy logarithmic priority programming is put forward, and a new fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established by combining the new weight calculation method with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to explain the validity and rationality of the method, this paper takes the fire risk assessment of underground garage as a basic example. The weight calculation and importance ranking of fire risk index of underground garage are carried out by using AHP and fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory respectively. Comparing the calculation process and the results, the validity of the fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory is verified, and the advantages and disadvantages of the new method are found to be more superior than the analytic hierarchy process in the decision-making process. Finally, the newly proposed evaluation model is applied to the engineering example. In this paper, the comprehensive emergency capacity evaluation of Hefei Chemical Industry Park is selected as an example. Firstly, the evaluation index system is established through the analysis of the influencing factors of the emergency response capacity of the chemical industry park. Then the weight of the influence index is calculated by using entropy weight and fuzzy priority programming theory, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied to the comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the evaluation result of the chemical industry park is "good". According to the evaluation results, the corresponding improvement suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X913

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