發(fā)布時間：2018-12-15 17:37

【摘要】：中國是一個自然災害頻發(fā)的國家,研究其自然災害演變特征及糧食災損規(guī)律,對實現(xiàn)中國社會經濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展、解決中國糧食安全問題具有重要意義。本文先基于Python語言編程獲取1949-2015年中國31省市自然災害造成的受災、成災、絕收面積,構建災害強度指數(shù)分析不同災種的時序特征分異,利用趨勢分析、ESDA方法分析不同災種在省域空間的分布特征及冷熱區(qū);再獲取1949-2015年糧食種植數(shù)據,通過糧食災損估算模型、定義糧食災損率、地理空間探測器,計算并檢驗中國糧食損失時空特征及分異性。結果表明:(1)相比受災面積曲線,本文構建的災害程度指數(shù)能夠更好揭示自然災害時序演變特征;(2)1949-2015年期間中國兩大主力災害(洪災、旱災)交替出現(xiàn),未來5~10年以洪災為主;(3)災種排序旱災洪災風雹低溫臺風,其中旱災、洪災受災占比過半;(4)省域不同災種間空間趨勢變化特征明顯,區(qū)域受災面積東部西部,北部南部,且北部災種單一、南部多災并發(fā);(5)自然災害受災總和、旱災、雹災、低溫空間上全局自相關性不顯著,呈隨機模式分布,洪澇、臺風在空間分布上具有顯著的全局自相關性,呈集聚模式;(6)1949-2015年災害、災損量、災損率整體時序趨勢呈現(xiàn)先升后降,2000年為臨界點,空間分布具有異質性,單因子解釋力度差異顯著,多因子交互均呈非線性增強關系,胡煥庸線兩側冷熱點分布呈兩極化且其重心向北遷移。建議政府加強除旱減雹(西北)、除旱排內澇(東北)、排澇防凍(中部)、排澇預臺(東南沿海)等工程技術措施;同時西北(環(huán)境惡劣)、東北(中國糧倉)應作為防災減災重點保護區(qū),制定專項保護方案,以保證中國糧食豐產增收。
[Abstract]:China is a country with frequent natural disasters. It is of great significance to study the evolution characteristics of natural disasters and the law of grain loss in order to realize the sustainable development of China's social economy and solve the problem of food security in China. In this paper, based on the programming of Python language, the natural disasters caused by natural disasters in 31 provinces and cities in China from 1949 to 2015 are acquired. The disaster intensity index is constructed to analyze the temporal characteristics of different disasters, and the trend analysis is used. ESDA method is used to analyze the distribution characteristics of different kinds of disasters in provincial space and the cold and hot areas. Then we obtain the grain planting data from 1949 to 2015, define the grain loss rate and geospatial detector, and calculate and test the temporal and spatial characteristics and differences of grain losses in China by using the grain disaster loss estimation model. The results show that: (1) compared with the disaster area curve, the disaster degree index constructed in this paper can better reveal the temporal evolution characteristics of natural disasters; (2) the two main disasters (flood, drought) appeared alternately in China from 1949 to 2015, mainly in the coming 5 ~ 10 years, (3) drought, flood, hail, low temperature typhoon, among which drought, flood disaster accounted for more than half; (4) the spatial trend of different disasters in the province is obvious, the disaster area is in the east and west, the north and the south, and the northern disaster is single, and the southern part is complicated with many disasters; (5) the global autocorrelation of natural disasters, drought, hail and low temperature is not significant, which is random pattern distribution, flood and typhoon have significant global autocorrelation in spatial distribution. (6) from 1949 to 2015, the total time series trend of disaster loss and loss rate increased first and then decreased, and in 2000 it was the critical point. The spatial distribution was heterogeneity, the intensity of single factor explanation was significantly different, and the interaction of multiple factors was nonlinear and enhanced. The distribution of cold hot spots on both sides of Hu Huanyong line is polarized and its center of gravity migrates northward. It is suggested that the government should strengthen the engineering and technical measures, such as removing drought and hail (northwest), removing drought and drainage of waterlogging (northeast), draining waterlogging and preventing freezing (central part), and pre-drainage platform (southeast coast). At the same time, northwest (environment) and northeast (China's granary) should be regarded as key protection areas for disaster prevention and mitigation, and special protection schemes should be formulated to ensure high grain yield and increase income in China.
【作者單位】： 東北農業(yè)大學資源環(huán)境學院;中國農業(yè)科學院農業(yè)資源與農業(yè)區(qū)劃研究所;中國地質大學土地科學技術學院;湖南科技大學資源環(huán)境與安全工程學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(41571427) 中國農業(yè)科學院創(chuàng)新群體項目(Y2017JC33)~~
【分類號】：F326.11;X43

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