發(fā)布時間：2018-11-28 15:58

【摘要】：我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展日益興盛,改革開放以來不斷提高的城市化水平造成了嚴重的城市交通擁堵問題,全國各地都掀起了建設(shè)地鐵的高潮。地鐵運營過程中人員大量聚集,如果地鐵在運營過程中發(fā)生事故情況,后果不堪設(shè)想,地鐵運營的安全性被所有人越來越重視。如果不想發(fā)生重大的地鐵運營安全事故,并進行有效的事前控制,那么我們就要對地鐵的安全運營系統(tǒng)進行準確可行的風險測評。本文通過分析全世界范圍內(nèi)的地鐵安全運營事故數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計,依照分析結(jié)果判斷主要的地鐵事故是什么類型,找出地鐵事故發(fā)生的根本原因,并把影響地鐵安全運營的風險因素歸結(jié)為四點。一是人員,二是設(shè)備設(shè)施,三是環(huán)境,四是管理。其次通過系統(tǒng)安全理論的指導(dǎo),試運用解析結(jié)構(gòu)模型對影響地鐵運營安全的主要風險因素劃分層次,確定每個層次影響系統(tǒng)風險水平的大小。在我國地鐵運營系統(tǒng)風險評估模型中,首先使用三角模糊數(shù)的層次分析法,計算出各安全風險指標的權(quán)重,在計算過程中,我們將以地鐵運營方面各相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的各評價人員的工作年限為依據(jù),設(shè)定相應(yīng)的權(quán)重數(shù)值以此減小評價人員主觀因素對評價結(jié)果的影響。在量化系統(tǒng)及子系統(tǒng)的風險方面,運用風險分級評價法對人、設(shè)備設(shè)施、環(huán)境和管理四個方面的風險進行等級劃分,利用模糊綜合評價的方法,量化整個系統(tǒng)的風險水平。通過參考這些方法和進行數(shù)據(jù)分析,希望能夠幫助地鐵運營管理者做出科學的管理決策,一定程度的帶動地鐵運營系統(tǒng)安全水平的提升。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the increasing level of urbanization has caused a serious problem of urban traffic congestion, and all parts of the country have set off a climax of subway construction. In the course of subway operation, a large number of people gather, if the subway in the operation of accidents, the consequences are unthinkable, the safety of subway operation has been paid more and more attention. If we do not want to have a major subway operation safety accident, and carry out effective prior control, then we have to carry out an accurate and feasible risk assessment of the subway safety operation system. By analyzing the data statistics of subway safety operation accidents in the world, according to the results of the analysis, this paper judges the main types of subway accidents, and finds out the fundamental causes of the subway accidents. And will affect the subway safety operation risk factors down to four points. One is personnel, two is equipment, three is the environment, four is the management. Secondly, through the guidance of the system safety theory, this paper tries to use the analytic structure model to divide the main risk factors that affect the safety of subway operation, and determine the magnitude of each level that affects the system risk level. In the risk assessment model of subway operation system in our country, firstly, the AHP of triangular fuzzy number is used to calculate the weight of each safety risk index, and in the process of calculation, Based on the working life of the evaluators in various related fields of subway operation, we will set the corresponding weights to reduce the impact of subjective factors on the evaluation results. In the aspect of quantifying the risk of the system and subsystem, the risk level of the whole system is quantified by using the risk grading evaluation method in the four aspects of people, equipment, facilities, environment and management, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to quantify the risk level of the whole system. By referring to these methods and analyzing the data, we hope to help the subway operators to make scientific management decisions and to promote the safety level of the subway operation system to a certain extent.
【學位授予單位】：中國科學院大學(工程管理與信息技術(shù)學院)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：U298

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本文編號：2363380