【摘要】：邊坡變形監(jiān)測(cè)與穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)研究是巖石力學(xué)領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)研究問題，并取得了豐碩的研究成果，但隨著GPS技術(shù)和我國北斗系統(tǒng)的日臻完善，對(duì)于邊坡變形監(jiān)測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)智能化集成的研究成果略顯不足。深入開展無人值守的露天礦山邊坡變形實(shí)時(shí)、連續(xù)監(jiān)測(cè)與穩(wěn)定性智能預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)研究對(duì)于露天礦山邊坡安全管理和包括北斗系統(tǒng)在內(nèi)的衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航技術(shù)在邊坡監(jiān)測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)領(lǐng)域的推廣應(yīng)用具有非常重大的理論意義和實(shí)用價(jià)值。 課題以“基于GPS的礦區(qū)重點(diǎn)區(qū)域?qū)崟r(shí)變形監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)”項(xiàng)目為依托，針對(duì)金堆城露天礦邊幫斷裂帶規(guī)模巨大、內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜、巖性軟弱的地質(zhì)特點(diǎn)，從安全監(jiān)測(cè)的時(shí)效性出發(fā)，通過數(shù)值分析對(duì)邊坡監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)位進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化、通過信號(hào)處理和理論分析建立了預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)模型，并運(yùn)用空間內(nèi)插加密算法，，實(shí)現(xiàn)了變形監(jiān)測(cè)和預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)的智能化集成。取得了以下主要成果： （1）運(yùn)用數(shù)值分析確定了金堆成露天礦山重點(diǎn)邊坡擬選用的監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)位。并利用Leica GNSS QC軟件對(duì)監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)的周跳、多路徑、數(shù)據(jù)完整性以及數(shù)據(jù)連續(xù)性進(jìn)行分析，優(yōu)化了點(diǎn)位布置，提出了一種新的監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)布設(shè)的原則。 （2）引入了小波閾值收縮法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行降噪處理。在對(duì)比分析GM（1,1）等時(shí)距和非等時(shí)距模型位移預(yù)測(cè)精度的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了改進(jìn)的灰色-變維分形模型，并采用Matlab數(shù)值仿真模擬軟件對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證分析，對(duì)滑坡體的水平和垂直以及整體位移進(jìn)行求解，得到該模型對(duì)GPS數(shù)據(jù)具有很好的適應(yīng)性，提高了預(yù)測(cè)精度。 （3）運(yùn)用空間內(nèi)插加密算法，通過建立實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)的真三維維礦山安全狀況演變模型，再現(xiàn)與仿真礦山開采活動(dòng)及給安全、環(huán)境帶來的相關(guān)影響；基于歷史監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)和時(shí)間序列模型，及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)潛在的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生地點(diǎn)、時(shí)間和影響范圍；實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)發(fā)布礦山安全和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害等可視化信息和短信預(yù)警。實(shí)現(xiàn)了“監(jiān)測(cè)”、“評(píng)價(jià)”、“預(yù)測(cè)”、“報(bào)警”、“防盜”五為一體的智能化集成，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)邊坡的無人化、可視化實(shí)時(shí)在線監(jiān)測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)。 課題成果在金鉬股份金堆城露天礦一年多的生產(chǎn)運(yùn)行情況表明，該系統(tǒng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了全方位、全天候、立體化地對(duì)礦區(qū)地表形變的相關(guān)信息的無人化實(shí)時(shí)采集、快速安全傳輸、自動(dòng)解算處理、監(jiān)測(cè)信息處理和可視化預(yù)警，給礦山邊坡安全管理提供了一個(gè)智能化輔助決策支持，對(duì)GPS和北斗衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)在邊坡監(jiān)測(cè)中的推廣具有借鑒價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The research of slope deformation monitoring and stability prediction is a hot research problem in the field of rock mechanics, and a lot of research results have been obtained. However, with the development of GPS technology and Beidou system in China, The research on the intelligent integration of slope deformation monitoring and prediction is a little insufficient. Carry out the real-time deformation of unattended open pit slope in depth, The research on continuous monitoring and intelligent prediction and prediction of stability has very important theory for slope safety management and satellite navigation technology including Beidou system in the field of slope monitoring and prediction. Meaning and practical value Based on the project of "real-time deformation monitoring and warning system in key mining area based on GPS", the paper aims at the geological characteristics of the side fault zone of Jinduicheng opencast mine with large scale, complex internal structure and weak lithology. In view of the timeliness of safety monitoring, the slope monitoring points are optimized by numerical analysis, the prediction model is established by signal processing and theoretical analysis, and the spatial interpolation encryption algorithm is used. The intelligent integration of deformation monitoring and prediction is realized. The main achievements are as follows: (1) using numerical analysis to determine the monitoring points to be selected for the key slope of Jinduicheng opencast mine. The cycle slip, multipath, data integrity and data continuity of monitoring data are analyzed by using Leica GNSS QC software, and the point position arrangement is optimized, and a new principle of monitoring point layout is put forward. (2) the wavelet threshold shrinkage method is introduced to reduce the noise of the data. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the displacement prediction accuracy of GM (1 / 1) equal time interval model and non-equal time interval model, an improved grey variable dimension fractal model is established, and the model is verified and analyzed by Matlab numerical simulation software. By solving the horizontal, vertical and global displacement of the landslide, it is found that the model has a good adaptability to the GPS data and improves the prediction accuracy. (3) by using the spatial interpolation encryption algorithm, through the establishment of the real time dynamic evolution model of the safety situation of the true 3D mine, the paper reproduces and simulates the mining activities of the mine and the related influence to the safety and environment; Based on the historical monitoring data and time series model, the location, time and influence range of potential geological hazards are predicted in time and accurately, and visual information and short message warning such as mine safety and geological hazards are published dynamically and in real time. The intelligent integration of "monitoring", "evaluation", "prediction", "alarm" and "anti-theft" is realized, and the real-time on-line monitoring and prediction of slope is realized. The operation of the project in Jinduicheng opencast mine for more than a year shows that the system has realized the real-time collection of the information related to the surface deformation of the mining area in an all-round, all-weather and three-dimensional manner, and the rapid and safe transmission. Automatic calculation processing monitoring information processing and visual early warning provide an intelligent auxiliary decision support for slope safety management. It has reference value for the popularization of GPS and Beidou satellite navigation system in slope monitoring.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TD76

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