【摘要】：近年來,我國公務(wù)航空業(yè)快速發(fā)展,公務(wù)機數(shù)量及起落架次不斷增加。在滿足旅客多元化出行要求的同時,也突顯出運行規(guī)章滯后、管理手段不合理、安全投入不足等問題,影響飛行安全的事件時有發(fā)生,公務(wù)航空的飛行安全管理工作形勢相對嚴(yán)峻。因此有必要對公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險進行研究,更好地了解影響公務(wù)機飛行安全的風(fēng)險因素,通過制定相應(yīng)的控制措施來降低飛行安全風(fēng)險,對提升公務(wù)航空飛行安全水平具有十分重要的意義。本文首先對公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險因素進行了分析。從NTSB收集公務(wù)機事件/事故100起,采用基元事件分析法對每起事件/事故進行原因分析,建立公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險因素集;然后赴多家公務(wù)機公司進行實地調(diào)研,了解公務(wù)機在實際運行過程中的風(fēng)險;最后根據(jù)分析得到的風(fēng)險因素以及指標(biāo)體系的建立原則,初步建立指標(biāo)體系,通過反復(fù)咨詢公務(wù)機行業(yè)管理人員,確定公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系,包括飛行管理、飛行保障、飛行環(huán)境和安全管理4指標(biāo)20個因素;本文在分析現(xiàn)有飛行安全風(fēng)險評估方法的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系的特點,根據(jù)可拓學(xué)理論建立公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險可拓優(yōu)度評估模型;對一家規(guī)模較大的公務(wù)機公司和三家規(guī)模相對較小的公務(wù)機公司進行綜合評估,分別計算其關(guān)聯(lián)度和風(fēng)險特征值確定公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險等級。實際計算結(jié)果表明,規(guī)模較大的公務(wù)機公司飛行安全水平處于Ⅱ級-低風(fēng)險,主要在安全管理上存在不足;規(guī)模較小的公務(wù)機公司飛行安全水平處于Ⅲ級-一般風(fēng)險,主要在飛行保障和安全管理上存在不足。該模型能夠?qū)珓?wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險進行定量的分析,能夠科學(xué)、客觀的評估公務(wù)機飛行安全風(fēng)險水平,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響飛行安全的風(fēng)險因素,并提出相應(yīng)的對策,提高公務(wù)航空安全管理水平,為公務(wù)機飛行安全管理提供一定的參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, the number of business aircraft and landing gear times are increasing. While meeting the requirements of passengers' diversified travel, it also highlights the problems of lagging operation regulations, unreasonable management methods, insufficient safety investment, and so on. Incidents affecting flight safety occur from time to time. Civil aviation flight safety management situation is relatively severe. Therefore, it is necessary to study the flight safety risk of business aircraft, to better understand the risk factors that affect the flight safety of business aircraft, and to reduce the flight safety risk by making corresponding control measures. It is of great significance to improve the safety level of civil aviation flight. Firstly, this paper analyzes the risk factors of flight safety of business aircraft. This paper collects 100 business plane incidents / accidents from NTSB, analyzes the causes of each event / accident by using the elementary event analysis method, and establishes the risk factor set of business plane flight safety. Then go to a number of business jet companies to conduct field research, to understand the actual operation of business aircraft in the process of risk; Finally, according to the analysis of the risk factors and the establishment of the index system principles, the preliminary establishment of the index system, through repeated consultation with the business jet industry management personnel, determine the business aircraft flight safety risk index system, including flight management, Flight support, flight environment and safety management 4 indicators 20 factors; Based on the analysis of the existing flight safety risk assessment methods and the characteristics of the commercial aircraft flight safety risk index system, this paper establishes the extension evaluation model of the commercial aircraft flight safety risk according to the extension theory. A large business jet company and three relatively small business jet companies are comprehensively evaluated, and their correlation degree and risk characteristic value are calculated to determine the flight safety risk grade of the business jet. The actual calculation results show that the flight safety level of the larger business jet company is in grade 鈪，

本文編號：2333969