發(fā)布時間：2018-11-04 17:53

【摘要】：通過將故障樹轉(zhuǎn)化為貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),計(jì)算生物質(zhì)氣化中毒事故發(fā)生的概率為1.202 98×10-4/d,利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)雙向推導(dǎo)與診斷的功能計(jì)算基本事件的后驗(yàn)概率及重要度,從而分析出系統(tǒng)中導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生的薄弱環(huán)節(jié).結(jié)合bow-tie法同時分析導(dǎo)致薄弱環(huán)節(jié)失效的因素及失效后可能會出現(xiàn)的后果,基于此得出防止薄弱環(huán)節(jié)失效的預(yù)防措施以及失效后采取的控制措施,進(jìn)而降低事故發(fā)生的概率;對薄弱環(huán)節(jié)閥門泄漏采取措施后,可使得中毒事故發(fā)生概率降低20.92%,最終達(dá)到降低事故發(fā)生概率的目的.
[Abstract]:By transforming the fault tree into Bayesian network, the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accident is calculated to be 1.202 脳 10 ~ (-4) / d, and the posterior probability and importance of basic events are calculated by using the function of bidirectional derivation and diagnosis of Bayesian network. In order to analyze the weak links in the system that lead to accidents. Combined with the bow-tie method, the factors that lead to the weak link failure and the possible consequences after the failure are analyzed simultaneously. Based on this, the preventive measures to prevent the weak link from failure and the control measures taken after the failure are obtained, thus reducing the probability of the accident. The probability of poisoning accident can be reduced by 20.92% after taking measures to the leakage of weak link valve, and finally the probability of accident occurrence can be reduced.
【作者單位】： 東北大學(xué)資源與土木工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：遼寧省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(2013020137) 農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)村能源專項(xiàng)(2012-27)
【分類號】：X928.5

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本文編號：2310683