【摘要】：災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)的危害擴散過程研究是災(zāi)害應(yīng)對及危機管理的一個重要研究議題。論文通過深入分析災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)的危害擴散過程，為治理由災(zāi)害天氣引發(fā)的公共危機提供基礎(chǔ)性的機理支撐。 本文將災(zāi)害天氣侵襲交通系統(tǒng)而引發(fā)危機的過程視為一個核塌縮過程，其塌縮順序是從物理網(wǎng)絡(luò)到社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)，進而引發(fā)危機。這有助于深入認識和理解氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)的危害擴散過程，進而為惡劣天氣損壞交通系統(tǒng)的危機治理提供啟迪。 研究注重分析危害擴散過程的耦合性和嵌入性特點，主要內(nèi)容如下： 首先界定了災(zāi)害天氣的概念，對災(zāi)害天氣進行分類。分析災(zāi)害天氣對道路狀況、交通工具、出行者、交通管控等這些交通要素的影響。利用故障樹工具對災(zāi)害天氣造成交通系統(tǒng)故障的種類及特征進行分析。其次，對災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)的危害擴散模式進行了研究。災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)后對其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施造成耦合性的危害擴散影響，對社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)和治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)造成嵌入性的危害擴散影響；利用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)分析了耦合性和嵌入性兩種模式對危害擴散的作用和影響。結(jié)合2008年南方雪災(zāi)中的危害擴散鏈條進行因果分析，對其中的各個演化路徑中的變量進行分析，進而指出在災(zāi)害天氣侵襲交通系統(tǒng)后從物理網(wǎng)絡(luò)到社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)的危害演化路徑。再次，分析了災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)的危害擴散治理困境的存在原因。從耦合性和嵌入性角度分析在災(zāi)害天氣引發(fā)的危害擴散治理困境。在此基礎(chǔ)上，指出災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)引發(fā)的交互影響，結(jié)合相關(guān)案例（2008年南方雪災(zāi)案例）分析了這種交互影響的表現(xiàn)形式，并對耦合性和嵌入性的交互作用加以分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)交互影響對于危害擴散具有助推作用。 系統(tǒng)分析災(zāi)害天氣破壞交通系統(tǒng)后的危害擴散過程，，有利于危機治理效果的進一步改善；對危害擴散過程中存在的耦合性、嵌入性、交互影響等的分析，有助于深入理解危害擴散過程，從而有利于相關(guān)治理措施的設(shè)計和制定。
[Abstract]:It is an important research topic in disaster response and crisis management to study the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather damage. By analyzing the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather, this paper provides the basic mechanism support for the management of public crisis caused by disaster weather. In this paper, the process of crisis caused by disaster weather attacking traffic system is regarded as a nuclear collapse process, whose collapse order is from physical network to social network, and then to cause crisis. It is helpful to understand and understand the damage diffusion process caused by meteorological disasters and provide enlightenment for the crisis management of transportation system damaged by severe weather. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept of disaster weather is defined, and the disaster weather is classified. Analysis of the impact of disaster weather on road conditions, vehicles, travelers, traffic control and other traffic factors. The fault tree tool is used to analyze the types and characteristics of traffic system faults caused by disaster weather. Secondly, the damage diffusion model of transportation system damaged by disaster weather is studied. After the disaster weather destroys the transportation system, it has a coupling effect on other infrastructure, and an embedded diffusion effect on the social network and governance network. The effects of two modes of coupling and embeddedness on hazard diffusion are analyzed by using system dynamics. Based on the causal analysis of the chain of hazard diffusion in the snow disaster in South China in 2008, this paper analyzes the variables in each evolution path, and points out the harm evolution path from physical network to social network after the disaster weather attacks the transportation system. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the causes of the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and control of transportation system damaged by disaster weather. From the point of view of coupling and embeddedness, this paper analyzes the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and management caused by disaster weather. On this basis, the interaction caused by disaster weather damage transportation system is pointed out, and the manifestation of this interaction is analyzed based on the related cases (2008 Southern Snow disaster case), and the interaction between coupling and embeddedness is analyzed. It is found that the interaction has a positive effect on hazard diffusion. The systematic analysis of the process of hazard diffusion after the disaster weather destroys the transportation system is beneficial to the further improvement of the effect of crisis management, and the analysis of the coupling, embeddedness, interaction and so on in the process of hazard diffusion. It is helpful to understand the process of hazard diffusion, and therefore to design and develop relevant control measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U492.8;P429

【相似文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 柳春光,杜瑋,翟桐;城市交通系統(tǒng)抗震可靠性研究[J];地震工程與工程振動;1999年02期

2 姜淑珍,柳春光;三亞市交通系統(tǒng)易損性分析[J];世界地震工程;2005年03期

3 付琛;樊維;;國外GIS在隧道工程維護中的現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展趨勢[J];長江工程職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院學(xué)報;2006年04期

4 成舸;;獨享一節(jié)城鐵[J];新知客;2009年08期

5 冬婷;;個人快速城鐵[J];科學(xué)大觀園;2010年08期

6 胡偉東;;城市跨座式單軌交通系統(tǒng)運營管理模式探析[J];科技資訊;2008年08期

7 劉愛文;夏珊;徐超;;汶川地震交通系統(tǒng)震害及震后搶修[J];震災(zāi)防御技術(shù);2008年03期

8 張曉暉;;省級綜合交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建設(shè)規(guī)劃與研究[J];黑龍江科技信息;2009年31期

9 王文云;;山地城市交通系統(tǒng)震害特征研究[J];山西建筑;2011年23期

10 黃必亮,楊家本;改進點格自動機交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型及交通系統(tǒng)自組織現(xiàn)象的研究[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;1998年03期

相關(guān)會議論文 前10條

1 嚴揚;;主題五 交通系統(tǒng)與交通工具整合創(chuàng)新的機會[A];新觀點新學(xué)說學(xué)術(shù)沙龍文集46：城市發(fā)展與交通方式創(chuàng)新[C];2010年

2 陳澤明;趙岳;王利民;;單羥基醇中的德拜型弛豫與結(jié)構(gòu)弛豫耦合性研究[A];第七屆全國液體和軟物質(zhì)物理學(xué)術(shù)會議程序冊及論文摘要集[C];2010年

3 胡林;;淺談EIP在交通系統(tǒng)中的應(yīng)用[A];中國公路學(xué)會計算機應(yīng)用學(xué)會2002年年會學(xué)術(shù)論文集[C];2002年

4 熊克;;栤子聚合物金\l

本文編號：2282532