【摘要】：本文定量地研究了中國歷史上自然災害和農民遷徙之間的長期動態(tài)關系,在研究自然災害的影響同時,因為農民遷移也是應對人口壓力一種現(xiàn)象,所以也將人口壓力納入對農民遷徙的分析之中.本文基于歷史大數(shù)據(jù),采用了相關分析、多元線性和多元泊松回歸分析,以及格蘭杰因果分析去驗證中國歷史上自然災害和農民遷徙之間的關系,揭示了自然災害導致農民遷徙的影響是短期的,雖然農耕社會的緩沖能力比較低,但是在較短時期內,它有一定能力減輕自然災害的影響,并且從統(tǒng)計結果上也能夠反映農民對移民的被動和不情愿.而與之相反,盡管人口壓力在短期內的影響有限,但是在長期尺度上通過影響土地承載力進而能夠最終導致農民遷徙.
[Abstract]:This paper quantitatively studies the long-term dynamic relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in the history of China. At the same time, it studies the influence of natural disasters, because peasant migration is also a phenomenon of coping with population pressure. Therefore, the population pressure is also included in the analysis of the migration of farmers. Based on historical big data, this paper uses correlation analysis, multivariate linear and multivariate Poisson regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to verify the relationship between natural disasters and peasant migration in Chinese history. It is revealed that the impact of natural disasters on the migration of farmers is short-term. Although the buffering capacity of farming societies is relatively low, it has a certain capacity to mitigate the effects of natural disasters in a relatively short period of time. And from the statistical results can also reflect the passivity and reluctance of farmers to immigrants. In contrast, although the impact of population pressure is limited in the short term, it can eventually lead to the migration of farmers on a long-term scale by affecting the carrying capacity of land.
【作者單位】： 香港教育大學社會科學系;
【基金】：香港特區(qū)政府研究項目(編號:ECS28300717) 香港教育大學校內研究項目(編號:RG68/2016-2017)、香港教育大學研究啟動項目(編號:R3744)、香港教育大學研究成果院長獎勵項目(編號:04233-SSC ROP-3) 德國慕尼黑大學瑞秋·卡森獎2017~2018項目資助
【分類號】：D632.4;X43

【相似文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 趙仁杰;自然災害沖擊的應對機制選擇：理論與中國經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[D];西北大學;2017年

，

本文編號：2278335