【摘要】：對鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸生產(chǎn)中事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效控制一直是鐵路運(yùn)輸企業(yè)及政府相關(guān)部門所追求的目標(biāo)。不斷提升鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸?shù)陌踩跃哂兄匾饬x。列車脫軌事故由于其事故率極高、事故后果嚴(yán)重,一直是世界范圍內(nèi)鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸中的一個(gè)重大安全隱患。本文以數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法為基礎(chǔ),以回歸建模技術(shù)為核心,綜合運(yùn)用概率統(tǒng)計(jì)、回歸分析、方差分析、相關(guān)分析、組合優(yōu)化、遺傳算法等方法和工具,分別建立起了針對路網(wǎng)、線路區(qū)段以及站內(nèi)編組過程的貨物列車脫軌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析模型。 在路網(wǎng)層面,以美國鐵路網(wǎng)2001-2010十年期間的貨物列車脫軌事故為研究對象,通過對路網(wǎng)上的線路區(qū)段分級、對事故原因分類、用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法估計(jì)事故率以及建立基于能量轉(zhuǎn)化原理的脫軌嚴(yán)重度非線性回歸模型,完成了對不同等級線路區(qū)段上主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的識別與定量分析。應(yīng)用實(shí)例中對不同既有線升級改造方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估表明：既有線升級改造對各主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素所產(chǎn)生的影響差異很大——將降低絕大多數(shù)與線路有關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值,但同時(shí)將使某些與軌上設(shè)備有關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值升高。在作方案選擇時(shí),應(yīng)綜合考慮對象路網(wǎng)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子及其具體運(yùn)營指標(biāo)。 在線路區(qū)段與站內(nèi)作業(yè)層面,以貨物列車在途脫軌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)受具體車列編組方案、具體徑路特性及列車自身特性三方面因素影響為基本假設(shè),通過建立脫軌率的解析模型、車列脫軌點(diǎn)POD的概率模型以及脫軌嚴(yán)重度的截尾幾何回歸模型,形成了一套針對具體徑路及具體車列編組方案的貨物列車在途風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模策略。應(yīng)用舉例中通過綜合考慮一條徑路上涉及危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸?shù)囊涣胸浳锪熊嚨脑谕撅L(fēng)險(xiǎn)與站內(nèi)作業(yè)過程,將問題抽象為組合優(yōu)化問題并用遺傳算法對模型進(jìn)行了求解分析。分析的結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性與實(shí)用性,并為鐵路危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸在具體徑路上的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制提供了新的思路。 與之前的相關(guān)研究相比,本研究的進(jìn)步性體現(xiàn)在以下三方面：(1)將面、線、點(diǎn)結(jié)合的“三位一體”的鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模策略進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)而深入的研究；(2)與目前流行的鐵路貨運(yùn)安全建模方法相比,本文的模型方法客觀性較強(qiáng)、穩(wěn)定性較好；(3)與目前相關(guān)研究中偏于理論研究的現(xiàn)狀相比,本文將理論與應(yīng)用較好地結(jié)合了起來。
[Abstract]:The effective control of accident risk in railway freight transportation is always the goal pursued by railway transport enterprises and government departments. It is of great significance to improve the safety of railway freight transportation. Because of its high accident rate and serious consequences, train derailment accident has been a major safety hazard in railway freight transportation all over the world. On the basis of mathematical statistics and regression modeling technology, this paper uses the methods and tools of probability statistics, regression analysis, variance analysis, correlation analysis, combinatorial optimization, genetic algorithm and so on. The risk analysis model of freight train derailment in line section and station marshalling process. At the road network level, taking the freight train derailment accident of the United States railway network 2001-2010 decade as the research object, through the route section classification on the road network, the cause of the accident is classified. The statistical method is used to estimate the accident rate and the nonlinear regression model of derailment severity based on the principle of energy conversion is established. The identification and quantitative analysis of the main risk factors on different grade lines are completed. The risk assessment of different existing railway upgrading schemes in application examples shows that the impact of existing railway upgrading on each major risk factor is very different-it will reduce the risk value of most of the risk factors related to the line. But at the same time, it will increase the risk value of some risk factors related to rail equipment. The main risk factors of the target road network and its specific operation index should be considered comprehensively when making scheme selection. Based on the assumption that the risk of derailment of freight train is affected by three factors such as specific train formation scheme, specific path characteristics and train's own characteristics, the analytical model of derailment rate is established. The probability model of train derailment point POD and the truncated geometric regression model of derailment severity have formed a set of risk modeling strategy of freight train in transit for specific path and train formation scheme. By taking into account the in-road risk and in-station operation process of a freight train involved in dangerous goods transportation on a path, the problem is abstracted as a combinatorial optimization problem and the genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. The results of the analysis verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and provide a new idea for the risk control of railway dangerous goods transportation on specific roads. Compared with the previous research, the progress of this study is reflected in the following three aspects: (1) the "Trinity" railway freight transport risk modeling strategy is studied in detail and deeply; (2) compared with the popular railway freight safety modeling method, the model method in this paper is more objective and stable; (3) compared with the current research situation, this paper combines the theory with the application.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U298

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本文編號：2274031