【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的發(fā)展，我國安全生產(chǎn)趨勢逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)，但與發(fā)達(dá)國家相比，形勢依然嚴(yán)峻。本文首先分析了事故指標(biāo)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會系統(tǒng)多因素的非線性相關(guān)關(guān)系，探索多因素間協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展機(jī)理，其次，基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)建立了全國及煤礦行業(yè)宏觀安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)模型；再次，對模型進(jìn)行了仿真及預(yù)警研究，其結(jié)果對協(xié)調(diào)安全生產(chǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會多方面關(guān)系，制定合理的宏觀干預(yù)政策，最終實現(xiàn)“安全發(fā)展”的理念有重要的意義。論文主要內(nèi)容及創(chuàng)新點如下： (1)將系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論引入宏觀安全生產(chǎn)預(yù)測預(yù)警研究領(lǐng)域，既為宏觀安全生產(chǎn)理論的實踐提供了技術(shù)路徑，又確定了宏觀安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的研究思路。 (2)采用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論對宏觀安全生產(chǎn)規(guī)律開展研究。揭示了系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論與安全流變-突變理論，生命周期理論，安全生產(chǎn)庫茲涅茨曲線，安全生產(chǎn)階段發(fā)展理論之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，，分析結(jié)果表明系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法可以很好地解釋其他理論。 (3)構(gòu)建了區(qū)域安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系和煤礦行業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。通過分析全國和煤礦事故指標(biāo)和影響因素指標(biāo)的時間序列圖，研究了各變量的發(fā)展趨勢及周期波動規(guī)律。通過對全國及煤礦事故指標(biāo)和影響因素指標(biāo)的散點圖分析，揭示出指標(biāo)間的非線性相關(guān)關(guān)系。 (4)建立了區(qū)域和行業(yè)的安全生產(chǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的動力學(xué)模型；重點通過框圖分析、基模分析、因果模型深入分析了安全生產(chǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會影響因素之間的非線性相關(guān)關(guān)系及反饋傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制；提出了狀態(tài)預(yù)警和趨勢預(yù)警的概念和方法。采用環(huán)比指數(shù)方法計算趨勢預(yù)警指數(shù)，并根據(jù)平均值和三倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差確定了預(yù)警警限值。 (5)對全國及煤礦行業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)趨勢進(jìn)行了仿真預(yù)警研究。首先，建立了全國及煤礦安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的流圖模型；其次，應(yīng)用建立的模型進(jìn)行了政策干預(yù)仿真分析，得出了全國及煤礦行業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)的預(yù)測規(guī)律，即事故指標(biāo)對某些關(guān)鍵影響因素指標(biāo)的改變敏感性較強(qiáng)；再次，應(yīng)用二次指數(shù)法和平均降低率法對事故統(tǒng)計指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了短期預(yù)測，結(jié)果表明我國及煤礦行業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)“十二五”規(guī)劃目標(biāo)已經(jīng)提前實現(xiàn)；最后，根據(jù)建立的預(yù)警模型及預(yù)測結(jié)果對預(yù)警指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了預(yù)警分析，表明在經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會因素、宏觀安全干預(yù)政策基本不變的條件下，未來1-3年全國事故指標(biāo)將處于無警狀態(tài)，煤礦事故指標(biāo)處于輕警狀態(tài)，即煤礦事故指標(biāo)的降低速率慢于前10年的平均水平。此外，針對對“十二五”規(guī)劃中2020年十萬人事故死亡率目標(biāo)，提出了對事故統(tǒng)計指標(biāo)的改進(jìn)建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the trend of production safety in China is getting better, but compared with the developed countries, the situation is still grim. This paper first analyzes the nonlinear correlation between the accident index and the economic and social system, explores the coordinated development mechanism between the multiple factors, and then, based on the system dynamics, establishes the national and coal mine macro-safety production system model. The simulation and early warning of the model are carried out. The results are of great significance to coordinate the relationship between safety production and economy and society, to formulate reasonable macro intervention policies and to realize the concept of "safe development". The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) introducing the theory of system dynamics into the field of prediction and early warning of macro-safety production provides a technical path for the practice of macro-safety production theory. In addition, the research ideas of coordinated development of macro-safety production system, economy and society are determined. (2) the law of macro-safety production is studied by using the theory of system dynamics. The correlation between system dynamics theory and safety rheological catastrophe theory, life cycle theory, safety production Kuznets curve and development theory of safe production stage is revealed. The results show that the system dynamics method can explain other theories well. (3) the early warning index system of regional production safety system and the early warning index system of coal mine production safety system are constructed. By analyzing the time series diagram of national and coal mine accident index and influencing factor index, the development trend and periodic fluctuation law of each variable are studied. Based on the scattered plot analysis of national and coal mine accident index and influencing factor index, the nonlinear correlation between the indexes is revealed. (4) the dynamic model of regional and industry safety production and economy and coordinated development is established. Through block diagram analysis, basic model analysis and causality model, the nonlinear correlation and feedback transmission mechanism between safety production and economic and social factors are analyzed, and the concepts and methods of state early warning and trend warning are put forward. The ring index method is used to calculate the trend warning index, and the warning limit value is determined according to the average value and three times standard deviation. (5) A simulation study on the trend of production safety in the whole country and in the coal mine industry is carried out. Firstly, the flow chart model of the coordinated development of national and coal mine safety production system and economy is established; secondly, the simulation analysis of policy intervention is carried out by using the established model, and the prediction law of safety production in the whole country and coal mine industry is obtained. That is, the accident index is more sensitive to the change of some key influencing factors. Thirdly, the method of quadratic index and average reduction rate is used to predict the statistical index of accident in the short term. The results show that the "12th Five-Year Plan" goal of safety production in our country and coal mine industry has been realized in advance. Finally, according to the established early warning model and forecast result, the early warning index is analyzed, which indicates that the economic and social factors, Under the condition that the macro safety intervention policy is basically unchanged, the national accident index will be in the state of no alarm in the coming 1-3 years, and the coal mine accident index will be in the state of light warning, that is, the decreasing rate of the coal mine accident index will be slower than the average level of the previous 10 years. In addition, aiming at the target of accident mortality of 100,000 people in the 12th Five-Year Plan by 2020, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the statistical index of accidents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X913

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