【摘要】：空防安全威脅傳統(tǒng)評(píng)估方法主要是基于情報(bào)信息形成專家或領(lǐng)導(dǎo)意見的定性分析方法,既缺乏威脅評(píng)估理論模型,又缺乏有效性的實(shí)證分析.首先依據(jù)定性分析考量空防安全事件威脅的維度,通過對(duì)情報(bào)信息要素進(jìn)行分解,構(gòu)建了空防安全威脅定量評(píng)估的指標(biāo)體系;其次,以劫炸機(jī)案例模擬威脅情報(bào)信息,應(yīng)用多元線性回歸的方法,采用向后刪除法對(duì)變量進(jìn)行優(yōu)選,建立了基于威脅主體屬性、犯罪動(dòng)機(jī)、威脅手段、機(jī)場、敏感時(shí)期五項(xiàng)情報(bào)信息指標(biāo)的威脅評(píng)估回歸模型.該模型的擬合檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,基于情報(bào)信息的威脅評(píng)估與空防安全專家評(píng)估意見具有很好的一致性.
[Abstract]:The traditional assessment methods of air security threats are mainly qualitative analysis methods based on intelligence information forming experts'or leaders' opinions. It lacks both a theoretical model of threat assessment and an effective empirical analysis. Firstly, according to qualitative analysis, the dimension of air defense security threat is considered, and the index system of quantitative assessment of air defense security threat is constructed by decomposing the elements of intelligence information; secondly, the threat intelligence information is simulated by the case of hijacking aircraft. By using the method of multiple linear regression and backward deleting, the regression model of threat evaluation is established based on the attributes of threat subject, criminal motive, threat means, airport and sensitive period. The fitting test results of the model show that the threat assessment based on intelligence information is in good agreement with the expert assessment of air defense security.
【作者單位】： 中國民航飛行學(xué)院計(jì)算機(jī)學(xué)院;中國民航飛行學(xué)院空防安全研究室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(61079022)資助項(xiàng)目
【分類號(hào)】：V328;O212.1
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本文編號(hào)：2184147