【摘要】：近30年來(lái)，我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛發(fā)展，石油化工行業(yè)作為龍頭企業(yè)也發(fā)展迅速。而這個(gè)行業(yè)很多物質(zhì)是危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品，其生產(chǎn)、存儲(chǔ)以及運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中都會(huì)發(fā)生事故，其事故率也逐年增加。危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品事故具有低概率高危害的特征，如果在事故發(fā)生后得不到及時(shí)的救援，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生很嚴(yán)重的后果，因此應(yīng)急中心的選址就變得尤為重要。選擇合適的應(yīng)急中心，，能在最快的時(shí)間到達(dá)事故現(xiàn)場(chǎng)，從而減少事故損失，對(duì)危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品事故預(yù)防有著重要的意義。 本篇論文綜合分析了以往危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品事故會(huì)產(chǎn)生的各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)典的選址模型，并針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的具體情況，在經(jīng)典的選址模型和相應(yīng)的算法基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)。 本論文首先研究了事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的各種不同的度量方法，然后結(jié)合高斯煙羽模型，并對(duì)其進(jìn)行合理的公式推導(dǎo)得出氣體泄漏出去之后的影響區(qū)域面積，為之后較精確地估算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供理論支持。 其次，考慮到復(fù)雜的天氣情況或惡劣的交通狀況等原因可能使應(yīng)急設(shè)施失效的情況，本文提出了應(yīng)急中心的雙層次選址模型，并采用了禁忌搜索算法進(jìn)行求解。最后通過(guò)實(shí)際案例驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。 第三，本文在考慮運(yùn)營(yíng)成本和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了雙目標(biāo)的雙層次選址模型。這個(gè)模型把選址設(shè)施數(shù)目作為決策變量，為合理規(guī)劃應(yīng)急中心建設(shè)提供了理論依據(jù)。最后以實(shí)例進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證，并且與之前的模型結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，得到了一些對(duì)選址問(wèn)題具有參考意義的結(jié)論。 最后，總結(jié)了全文的模型與算法，并重點(diǎn)提出了論文的創(chuàng)新之處以及研究結(jié)論的適用性。并給出了論文進(jìn)一步研究方向。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, the economy of our country has developed rapidly, and the petrochemical industry has also developed rapidly as a leading enterprise. Many substances in this industry are hazardous chemicals, and accidents occur during production, storage and transportation, and the accident rate increases year by year. Hazardous chemical accidents have the characteristics of low probability and high hazard. If there is no timely rescue after the accident, there will be very serious consequences, so the location of emergency center becomes particularly important. Choosing the appropriate emergency center can reach the accident site in the fastest time, thus reducing the loss of the accident, which is of great significance to the prevention of the accident of dangerous chemicals. This paper synthetically analyzes all kinds of risks caused by past hazardous chemical accidents and the classical location models at home and abroad, and improves on the classical location model and the corresponding algorithm according to the specific situation in our country. In this paper, different methods of measuring accident risk are studied, and then Gao Si plume model is used to deduce the influence area of gas leakage. To provide theoretical support for more accurate risk estimation. Secondly, considering that complex weather or bad traffic conditions may make emergency facilities fail, this paper proposes a two-level location model for emergency center, and uses Tabu search algorithm to solve the problem. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by an actual case. Thirdly, based on the consideration of operation cost and risk, a double objective double-level location model is proposed in this paper. This model takes the number of location facilities as a decision variable and provides a theoretical basis for the rational planning of emergency center construction. Finally, an example is given and compared with the results of the previous model, and some conclusions of reference to the location problem are obtained. Finally, the model and algorithm of the paper are summarized, and the innovation of the paper and the applicability of the research conclusions are put forward. The further research direction of this paper is also given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京化工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TQ086.5

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